RNC fight next week could go down to the wire

The battle to become chairman of the Republican National
Committee (RNC) remains wide open, with five serious contenders competing for
what watchers say remains a huge pool of undecided voters.

Balloting next week could take as long as five rounds,
the same number that produced surprise winner Jim Nicholson in 1997, the last
time the RNC had an open seat race. Along with multiple ballots, horse-trading
and deal-cutting will be rampant as the RNC elects a new chairman to a two-year
term.

{mosads}As the race to chair the beleaguered party enters its
final week, most members and candidates are casting the decision as a
referendum on the current chairman, Robert “Mike” Duncan, who commands both the
largest public roster of support as well as the deepest well of private
commitments.

Aside from Duncan, vote counters expect strong showings
from four other candidates. Two committee members — South Carolina Republican
Party chairman Katon Dawson and Michigan GOP chief Saul Anuzis — have been
building support lately, while several aides to other candidates said former
Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is on the move as well.

Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell has a
reservoir of public supporters, though his initially fast pace in rolling out
backers has slowed.

Duncan’s test begins on Jan. 29, when the 168 voting RNC
members will meet for a closed-door candidate forum. After candidates make
their opening statements, RNC members will have an hour to grill the candidates
on any topic.

Members will also have a briefer shot at asking questions
to candidates for co-chairman, secretary and treasurer, all of which are
elected following the conclusion of the chairman’s race.

Several observers say the members-only meeting is
significant, and that many of the dozens of RNC members who remain publicly
uncommitted will probably remain so until the final forum. RNC members have
relished their role in selecting a new chairman, and many want to hash out
their debate away from staffers, consultants and the media.

By Thursday afternoon, candidates also have to turn in
their nominating papers, a process that could thin the field by as many as two
candidates.

On Friday, candidates will have a final opportunity to
address members at regional breakfasts. Following calls to order, candidates
will be nominated with speeches at the general session, and voters will cast
the first of what are almost certain to be multiple ballots.

Republican National Committee officials have set aside
six and a half hours, beginning at 10:30 a.m., for electing officers, with the
vast majority of that time expected to be dedicated to the race for chairman.

(Though RNC members are likely to choose a secret ballot,
there is no requirement they do so. Roll calls, voice votes and standing are
also permitted forms of voting, according to a memo from the RNC counsel’s
office.)

The first ballot is expected to be good to Duncan. Rival
campaigns estimate the current chairman will produce between 50 and 55 votes,
estimates the Duncan campaign does not dispute. But from there, Duncan’s path
to the 85 votes necessary to win becomes more difficult.

If a majority of members do not vote for the incumbent chairman
on the first ballot, many will see it as a de facto defeat, and Duncan may
begin to bleed votes on subsequent ballots. 

“You’re either with the king or you’re not,” said one
aide to a Duncan rival. “Momentum is as important as the number” of votes a
candidate receives.

Duncan”s campaign instead says the initial show of
strength will woo more voters to the winning side on the second ballot. The
urge to back a winner, they say, will strike those seeking to abandon another
candidate with less strength.

Each candidate has actively begun lobbying members for
support on the second ballot and beyond. As no candidate is forced to drop out
following any round, race watchers expect as many as five ballots to go by
before any candidate secures a majority.

Anuzis and Dawson, each of whom have long-lasting
relationships with fellow committee members, have fans among those thinking
about a second ballot, and both are expected to improve on their first-round
performances. 

Steele’s base of support is said to be stronger than most
other candidates, making him likely to pick up additional backers as
well. 

But, say those involved, the race is far from over and no
one has been able to clinch support from dozens of uncommitted and undecided
members. 

In total, the pool of undecided voters coming to
Washington is going to be larger than many anticipate, vote-counters say,
making predictions — even by the candidates and aides in daily contact with
voting members — all but impossible.