Opportunity knocks for N.Y. GOP

A New York Republican Party in dire need of a break could have an opening with the appointment of Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) to the Senate.

Both Gillibrand and the man who appointed her, Gov. David Paterson (D), now face potentially potent primary challenges, while prominent Republicans are lining up to take Gillibrand’s conservative- leaning House district.

{mosads}Republicans currently hold just three of the state’s 31 seats in Congress. They also, for the first time in decades, lost the state Senate, which appears to be their only path to influence once redistricting takes hold next election cycle.

But even a weakened party should be able to take advantage of a special election in the friendly confines of the 20th district.

Already, several reputable Republican candidates have jumped into the special-election mix, including state Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco, state Sen. Betty Little and former gubernatorial nominee John Faso.

But while most are talking about primaries and the special election, New York Democratic consultant Joseph Mercurio said the move could throw more than just Gillibrand’s House seat into jeopardy.

“They could wind up losing the congressional seat and having a tough primary and general election for the Senate seat,” Mercurio said. “The Republican Party is very weak right now, in New York and nationally; this is the kind of thing that could breathe life back into it.”

Mercurio noted that the state and New York City have both shown a willingness to vote Republican under the right circumstances. He also theorized that having Gillibrand on the general-election ballot could actually increase Republican turnout and depress Democratic turnout upstate.

That would be damaging, given that Democrats have stolen four battleground upstate congressional seats from Republicans in the last two cycles. The GOP is primed to go after Democratic Reps. Michael Arcuri, Dan Maffei, Eric Massa and John Hall, as well as the Staten Island district of Rep. Mike McMahon (D).

New polling data from Quinnipiac University appears to bear out Gillibrand’s potential upstate effect. The poll, released Monday, suggests New York Republicans are actually happier than Democrats with the Gillibrand pick.

More than half — 56 percent — of Republicans approved of the appointment, while just 27 percent disapproved. Meanwhile, slightly more Democrats approved than disapproved, by a 41-to-35 margin.

Upstaters approved of the appointment 55 percent to 25, while the New York City area was lukewarm. And Republicans overall held a more favorable view of Gillibrand than did Democrats.

Quinnipiac director Maurice Carroll said the poll didn’t test any head-to-head match-ups, but added that a tough primary with Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) could help a general-election opponent like Rep. Pete King (R).

“Democrats ought to win everything in sight, but Peter King is … a very, very solid, hardworking, attractive campaigner,” Carroll said. “Peter will give them a run for their money, if he runs.”

King said he was prepared to jump in the race immediately against Caroline Kennedy, if she was the pick, but that the situation is less urgent against Gillibrand.

King said he called McCarthy over the weekend (they are neighbors in the delegation), but that her candidacy wouldn’t affect his decision.

“Whether it’s Carolyn McCarthy or someone else, there’s going to be a real split in the Democratic Party with her,” King said, adding that having an upstate opponent could open up the New York City suburbs and outer boroughs to him.

Of course, any general-election trouble assumes that Gillibrand makes it to the general election.

McCarthy appears to be proceeding full-steam-ahead with her promised primary challenge.

{mospagebreak}A powerful party establishment is behind Gillibrand, but McCarthy is a popular congresswoman from Long Island, and the New York City area generally determines statewide races in the Democratic primary.

Democrats are now bracing for that possibility.

{mosads}“The people in charge of New York politics will do their best to make sure it doesn’t happen,” Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf said.

Even if Paterson and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) throw their weight around to avoid a primary, the traditional political calculus doesn’t appear to be an issue for McCarthy, who is taking a principled stand against a National Rifle Association (NRA) endorsee. McCarthy’s husband was killed 15 years ago in the Long Island Railroad Massacre, an event that prompted her to run for Congress.

But McCarthy isn’t the only one gearing up for a run in the hours since Gillibrand’s appointment.

In the race for Gillibrand’s seat, Tedisco has emerged as an early front-runner in the special election, after he nabbed the endorsement of the Saratoga County GOP. The county constitutes about one-third of the 20th district.

Faso, meanwhile, said he had Columbia and Greene counties, which combine for about one-sixth. Little and 2008 primary candidate Richard Wager are also drawing significant chunks of the 10-county district.

Last year’s nominee, wealthy former state GOP Chairman Sandy Treadwell, is also still interested, according to spokesman David Catalfamo. Treadwell would likely have to be the second choice of leaders in several counties.

Those leaders are set to meet Tuesday morning to talk about a process for picking a candidate.

There are no primaries.

The Gillibrand appointment also opens the door to a primary for Paterson, who likely could have avoided one by appointing ambitious state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.

Cuomo has been remarkably quiet throughout the appointment process, but those close to him have been talking up a primary since Paterson ascended to the seat last year.

Cuomo, a former secretary of Housing and Urban Development, has flirted with the governor’s race each of the last two elections.

Paterson and Gillibrand also got the unwelcome news that Gillibrand family friend and former state Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno (R) was indicted on Friday.

There’s no evidence that it will color Gillibrand’s candidacy, but the proximity of the events added fuel to the fire over her selection.

Citing the Bruno news, Mercurio said: “I assume the Democrats are strong enough to get their act together and mount a good campaign, but this was not pretty.”