Sebelius nomination aids GOP chances in Kansas

In tapping Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) to head his Department of Health and Human Services, President Obama has all but guaranteed that Republicans will hold Sen. Sam Brownback’s (R-Kan.) Senate seat.

With Reps. Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.) and Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) locked into what’s expected to be a heated Republican primary, Democrats saw the opportunity for Sebelius, who retains high popularity ratings, to steal the seat Brownback is vacating. A recent poll for the liberal Daily Kos website showed Sebelius leading both Republicans by double digits.

{mosads}But without Sebelius in the mix, Kansas Democrats have few options in terms of a top-tier candidate. National strategists pine after Rep. Dennis Moore (D), though Kansas observers say his entry is unlikely.

Beyond Moore, observers suggest several Democratic state legislators may be encouraged to run. State House Minority Leader Paul Davis, state Sen. Laura Kelly and state Reps. Raj Goyle and Ed Trimmer are all mentioned as potential candidates, though each would start off as a distinct underdog.

“The Kansas Democratic Party has a very thin bench,” said Joe Aistrup, a political scientist at Kansas State University. “They don’t really have a deep pool of candidates ready in the wings to take over after Sebelius.”

The state is not a hotbed of Democratic activism. Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932.

Still, national Democrats say publicly that they won’t let Brownback’s seat fall to another Republican without a fight.

“Given the retirement of Sen. Brownback and a forthcoming divisive Republican primary, we still have an opportunity to field a candidate in a place where Democrats historically haven’t performed that well,” said Eric Schultz, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

In recent years, Democrats have won some elections in Kansas following primaries that pitted the state’s conservative GOP wing against centrists. If the more conservative candidate makes it out of the primary, centrist voters can flock to the Democratic candidate in November. That’s how Sebelius became governor in 2002, after a primary produced conservative Tim Shallenburger as the GOP nominee.

Privately, though, Democrats do not see the same scenario playing out this year. “There’s not really that many strong options after [Sebelius],” one national strategist lamented to The Hill last week.