Democrats see Golden opportunities against Calif.’s Obama GOPers

The earliest House battleground state of the 2010 election is … California?

The notoriously gerrymandered state is shaping up to be pivotal in the battle for the House, with Democrats lining up targets they didn’t even know they had five months ago. It’s also one of the few places where candidates are already jumping into the races, with 19 months until Election Day.

{mosads}Much of the enthusiasm is a direct result of President Obama’s success in the state. Obama carried eight GOP-held districts there and buoyed the Democratic congressional candidates while he was at it.

Most of those races featured under-funded and unheralded Democratic candidates who wound up with respectable — and in some cases, shockingly close — losses.

The clear 2010 targets are Reps. Brian Bilbray, Ken Calvert and Dan Lungren, who all survived with around 50 percent of the vote. Since then, though, Democrats have turned their attention to several other Obama-carried districts where they like the trends, including those represented by Reps. Elton Gallegly, Buck McKeon, Mary Bono Mack and John Campbell.

{mosads}All have experienced significant erosion in Republican registration in recent years, with the GOP close to losing its edge in Lungren’s and McKeon’s districts and leading by single digits in all but Campbell’s.

For a Democratic Party with a dearth of targets after two big elections, California has a bull’s-eye on it.

“Everybody’s talking about the Obama Republicans,” said Golden State Democratic consultant Jim Ross.

Ross likened the shifts in districts like Lungren’s to what happened in Rep. Ellen Tauscher’s (D-Calif.) district in the mid-1990s.

Tauscher, who has been chosen as an undersecretary of State and will soon vacate her seat, defeated a Republican incumbent in 1996 as the district moved away from the GOP. Now, with a little help from redistricting, it’s a Democratic stronghold.

“California in general has been changing,” Ross said. “That district’s a great example. … That’s what you see across the state.”

But the new focus on California has been more than just talk; candidates have been jumping at the new opportunities earlier than in most any other state. Attorney Tracy Emblem became the latest reputable Democrat to sign up this week when she announced that she would run for Bilbray’s seat.

Democrats also have recruits against Calvert, Lungren, Bono Mack and Campbell. The former two are opposed by their 2008 opponents; the latter two face mayors who represent sizable chunks of their districts.

National Democrats have yet to settle on any of the candidates, but the interest is encouraging.

California Republican consultant Kevin Spillane acknowledged the unfriendly demographic shifts and said the prospect of a Democrat-controlled redistricting before 2012 could make things even tougher.

But he said the Obama effect was so pervasive in 2008 that, without him on the ballot, Democrats are unlikely to break through in the current cycle.

“Republicans have larger problems long-term in California, but in the 2010 cycle, I expect these Republicans to be safe,” Spillane said. “What happens in 2012 and beyond is an open question.”

Andy Stone, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), said the targeting in California goes beyond just the presidential race.

“There’s lots of enthusiasm on the ground — not only about President Obama but about local races and other things going on in their communities,” Stone said.

Allan Hoffenblum, who publishes the California Target Book political guide, said the key in these districts in 2010 will be voters who decline to state their party preference.

No Republican district in the state features a majority of GOP voters anymore, leaving Republican incumbents to appeal to independent voters.

“A lot of it depends on how popular Barack Obama is in 2010,” Hoffenblum said. “What’s the state of the economy? What’s the political climate?”

Hoffenblum said Democrats would likely have to find new recruits to run against Lungren and Calvert. He said Lungren challenger Bill Durston is too far left and Calvert challenger Bill Hedrick doesn’t raise enough money.

Much of the action in the newly targeted districts has been organic, with the national party yet to weigh in. But the party is looking at all the districts and evaluating current and prospective candidates.

Former Irvine Mayor Beth Krom, who is running against Campbell, and Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, who has filed to run against Bono Mack, are drawing some early interest.

Pougnet, who will make an official decision in April, said the president has given Democrats a roadmap, and the data backs it up.

“The president carried areas that have never been carried before by a Democrat,” Pougnet said. “Clearly, that’s an example of the willingness to look at change” and vote for something different, he added.

The Obama Republicans won’t be the only races on the map, though. Democrats will again go after Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.), who narrowly edged Democrat Charlie Brown in a more conservative district in November. Brown is considering running for a third-straight time.

Republicans will go after Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) and potentially Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.), if they can lure state Rep. Van Tran (R) into the race.

Potentially helping the GOP’s cause is the prospect of a competitive governor or Senate race in 2010. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) or former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) could pose significant challenges to Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.).

“We welcome the Democrats to waste their resources on a number of Republican districts represented by hardworking, well-respected members,” said Joanna Burgos, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). “Just know that we can play the offense game, too, and already have a couple options in our back pockets.”