Poll: Obama likeable, economic impact uncertain

As he approaches his 100th day in office, President Obama is viewed more favorably than his predecessors but most Americans don’t think his policies, particularly on the economy, have had a significant impact yet, according to a survey released Thursday.

The Pew Research Center poll found that 63 percent of respondents approve of Obama’s job performance. More striking are Obama’s personal favorability ratings. Nearly three-quarters of respondents, including 46 percent of Republicans, have a favorable view of the Democrat. That number is much higher than the 61 percent who favorably viewed George W. Bush and the 60 percent who had a favorable view of Bill Clinton at this point in their administrations.

{mosads}”This is a president that people are favorably disposed toward,” Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, said Tuesday morning at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor.

Notably, there is a larger partisan gap between how Republicans and Democrats view Obama’s job performance than has existed in previous administrations. Only 30 percent of Republicans approve of Obama’s performance, a similar number that approved of Clinton at this point, while nearly eight in 10 Democrats strongly approve of Obama, much higher than the 39 percent of Democrats who said the same of Clinton.

Kohut cautioned against interpreting those numbers as indicative of Obama being a polarizing figure. “It’s because Republicans are as critical of Obama as they were of Bill Clinton, but Democrats are so much more favorable, so much more approving, that you get this huge gap,” he said. “The notion that he’s polarized the country may be the wrong take on that; it’s that he has such great positive reaction from members of his own party.”

Obama gets high marks on handling the economic crisis but a majority doesn’t think his policies have affected the recession. Six in 10 approve of Obama’s performance on economic issues while 53 percent say his policies have not had an impact on the economy so far. That number is down from 68 percent in March, suggesting that respondents are beginning to tie Obama’s policies to the current economic situation.

Kohut drew parallels between the current national mood and 1981 after Ronald Reagan assumed the presidency amid economic turmoil. Like with Reagan, most Americans believe Obama has the right policies to combat the economic crisis and are rooting for those policies to work. However, Kohut pointed out that by September 1981 confidence in Reagan’s economic policies had begun to slip, and by the end of that year a plurality said those economic policies were making their situation worse.

So, Kohut said that if the economy doesn’t improve in the next year, he expects Obama’s approval will be substantially lower. The question, Kohut said, is “How long will people think this guy’s got the answers?”

Currently, most Americans believe Obama is meeting expectations. Sixty-one percent say Obama is doing about as they expected, lower than the 67 percent that said the same of Bush in April 2001.

Two other statistics from the poll on Obama also stand out. First, a majority, 63 percent, continue to believe Obama represents a new approach to politics while only 27 percent say he represents business as usual in Washington.

Second, a slim plurality believes Obama is listening more to liberals in his party than centrists. Forty percent said he listens to liberals, down from 44 percent in March. That 40 percent, though, is still higher than where Obama registered on that question in January — 34 percent.

Other members of Obama’s administration have seen their numbers go in opposite directions. Vice President Biden’s favorable rating was 51 percent in the poll, lower than former vice presidents Cheney and Gore had at this point in their administrations, 58 percent and 55 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile, first lady Michelle Obama’s favorable numbers have shot up. More than three quarters of respondents view her favorably, which is higher than the 64 percent who viewed Laura Bush favorably and the 60 percent that had the same view of Hillary Rodham Clinton 100 days into their husbands’ administrations.

The Pew poll was conducted April 14-21 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.