The 2008 ad blitz begins

Presidential campaign advertising will start hitting the airwaves in the coming months, far earlier in the election cycle than during the 2004 race, and the ads will barrage the American public for much longer, delivering a windfall to television and radio stations, industry experts say.

Presidential campaign advertising will start hitting the airwaves in the coming months, far earlier in the election cycle than during the 2004 race, and the ads will barrage the American public for much longer, delivering a windfall to television and radio stations, industry experts say.

In the age of television, there never has been a presidential race so wide-open.

“In the history of modern broadcasting, we haven’t had an election where we haven’t had a White House incumbent,” said George Reed-Dellinger, who tracks the industry for Washington Analysis, a political intelligence consultancy. “The broadcasters are licking their chops.”

For the first time since 1972, both Republican and Democratic presidential nominees are expected to forego public financing entirely, allowing them to raise and spend unlimited sums on the largest item of any campaign budget: television spots.

Moreover, the nominees may be decided by February if four large states — Florida, California, New Jersey and Illinois — succeed in moving up their presidential primaries. Such a shift would push candidates to market themselves earlier in these states that are not traditional battlegrounds, but are home to some of the most expensive media markets in the country.

“The 2008 election will begin in earnest in terms of ad buys in late spring,” predicted Evan Tracey, the head of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political ad spending for TNS Media Intelligence.

The scramble has already begun. White House hopeful Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) hit the airwaves on Dec. 19 with a television ad in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Funded by his PAC, Peace Through Strength, it touted his tough stance on border control.

By contrast, Howard Dean went on the air first on June 17, 2003. “It’s a full seven months earlier than 2004,” Tracey said.

Moveon.org has run ads on local stations in Des Moines, Iowa and in Manchester, N.H., as well as nationally on CNN, that attack Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. The spot criticizes President Bush’s plan to raise troop levels in Iraq and asserts the idea came from the senator.

The rush to run ads will no doubt serve as fodder for groups that push for campaign finance reform.

“Do you realize how much pain these ads are going to cause the American public?” the president of the group Democracy 21, Fred Wertheimer, asked. “They just got done bombarding them and here we go again.”

Tracey predicted that the 2008 cycle will be roughly in line with the record-breaking $2 billion spent on all political advertising in the 2006 midterm elections, and should easily top the $1.7 billion spent in 2004. More has been spent in midterm years than in presidential years because of the higher number of gubernatorial races.

“We’ve never seen the money that we’re going to see spent on this campaign,” said Pat Roberts, the head of the Florida Association of Broadcasters, which represents both television and radio stations in the state.

If Florida shifts its primary date, political ads will start hitting the airwaves in November, he predicted.

The national sales manager for KCRG-TV in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Steve Lake, said he already has received calls about running issue ads from some outside groups. In recent presidential races, such ads weren’t aired until late summer.

But earlier primaries in some big states, especially in the battleground of Florida, may siphon money from Iowa and New Hampshire.

“It may split the candidates’ attention, time and money and negate a tidal wave of money in New Hampshire,” the general manager of WMUR in Manchester, Jeff Bartlett, said.

Tracey estimates it will cost $3-5 million a week to reach the bulk of voters in California. That could be prohibitively expensive for some candidates, and it could prompt those with bigger war chests to buy ads on the national cable networks. Within 60 days of the election, federal candidates are guaranteed airtime and cut rates for their ads. 

“If you’re talking about having all these states frontloaded, it might be more efficient to buy the whole country,” he said.

The cable industry is predicting that it will get a bigger slice of campaign dollars.

“I think they’re going to ramp up their cable advertising as a whole, on a national and local basis,” said Chuck Thompson of the Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau.