Lampson candidacy could create dilemma

When swing-district Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) opted out of a 2008 Senate run, it was a win for House Democrats and a loss for Senate Democrats — but soon the two chambers may be competing over Rep. Nick Lampson (D-Texas).

A campaign spokesman confirmed yesterday that Lampson is considering seriously a challenge to Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in 2008, becoming the latest House member to mull a bid for the upper chamber.

{mosads}“He’s going to seriously look at all his options,” Lampson spokesman Keir Murray said.

Lampson comes from a top Republican target district — No. 1, in fact, on Karl Rove’s recently disclosed list. With the Democrats’ House and Senate majorities only tentatively secured, recruiting House members in competitive districts such as Lampson’s can turn into a tug of war, observers say. Fellow members whisper in the ears of the congressmen, and campaign committees recruit them.

While Democrats on the Senate side see candidates such as DeFazio, Lampson and Rep. Brad Miller (D-N.C.) as key recruits and urge them to make the leap, House advocates see them leaving behind tough-to-hold open seats.

Miller recently postponed his House reelection kickoff because he is considering a challenge to Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.).

“There is always something underneath the surface lurking when it comes to something like recruiting,” an analyst for the Cook Political Report, Amy Walter, said. “The campaign committee’s goal is to put the best candidate in the race, period. Sometimes that comes at the detriment of the other campaign committee.”

The campaign committees say they recognize each other’s common objectives. Senate Democrats hold a two-seat majority, 51-49; House Democrats have a 31-seat majority, 232-201.

“We all share the same goal, which is strengthening our Democratic majorities, and just as it did last cycle, those efforts are going to pay dividends in both chambers,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) spokesman Matt Miller said. “The idea that there’s tension between the two is a little bit silly.”

Largely thanks to DeFazio’s decision, both sides so far have avoided losing key House incumbents. Reps. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) and Tom Allen (D-Maine), who are expected to announce Senate bids in the near future, come from relatively solid Democratic districts, although Republicans have signaled a desire to go after Allen’s seat.

DeFazio was a textbook case of the dichotomy, easily holding onto a quintessential swing district in recent years, yet appearing to be Democrats’ best hope against Sen. Gordon Smith (R) as well. In its recruitment, the DSCC commissioned a poll showing DeFazio beating Smith 42–38.

Lampson’s 22nd district will be tough to hold regardless of whether he runs. It is solidly Republican — President Bush took about two-thirds of the vote in both 2000 and 2004 — and Lampson was assisted by the Republicans’ inability to get former Rep. Tom DeLay’s (R) name replaced on the ballot.

That could also be motivation for Lampson to abandon the seat, reasoning that if he has an expensive uphill battle, it might as well be for the Senate.

Some suggest the district will be painful and expensive for Democrats to hold for years to come, and losing Lampson would allow them to focus resources elsewhere.

But Lampson, who previously served four terms in the House, is an experienced campaigner and a proven fundraiser. With the exception of 2006 opponent Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R), potential challengers aren’t yet jumping at the race.

Holding Brad Miller’s seat would be less difficult, and Democrats maintain they would not be overly concerned about losing it without him. But despite its being drawn for a Democrat, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) narrowly won North Carolina’s 13th district in 2004, and an open seat could open the door for Republicans, who have been unable to land top recruits there in recent years.

Miller has increased his cut of the vote each of the last two elections, going from 55 percent to 59 to 64 in November. In 2002, when the seat was open, Miller defeated an under-funded opponent who received little help from national Republicans.

After landing candidates in top states such as Minnesota, Maine and Colorado, Senate Democrats have turned their focus to second-tier targets such as Texas and North Carolina, making public cases about the incumbents’ vulnerability in these states.

One DSCC release pointed to Cornyn’s low name recognition and 41 percent favorability rating (he also has low unfavorability, with many undecided), and another promoted a poll in North Carolina that showed Dole leading Miller 44-33.

Republicans could face similar dilemmas in Montana and Virginia, where Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) has been mum about a possible challenge to Sen. Max Baucus (D) and Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) has said he would consider running if Sen. John Warner (R) retires.
Murray said Lampson, for now, is focused on recovering from recent quadruple bypass surgery and serving the 22nd district.

“The congressman has been approached in recent weeks by folks from around the state asking him to run for U.S. Senate,” Murray said. “He’s flattered by the attention and will take a look at it.”