Pelosi faces her first test

Speaker-in-waiting Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will face her first test of unity next week when House Democrats vote for their new slate of leaders. Many of the leadership races could be divisive for the nascent majority unless Democratic leaders come to an agreement in the next few days about who will run.

Speaker-in-waiting Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will face her first test of unity next week when House Democrats vote for their new slate of leaders. Many of the leadership races could be divisive for the nascent majority unless Democratic leaders come to an agreement in the next few days about who will run.

In the race for majority leader, House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer (Md.) said yesterday that he had enough votes to claim victory over Rep. John Murtha (Pa.).

“I’m gonna win. There’s no doubt in my mind. I have the votes of the majority of the existing members and I think I’ll have the majority of the votes of the new members,” Hoyer told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Hoyer’s prediction came hours after Murtha predicted he had the votes during an interview on MSNBC at 1:30 a.m. Wednesday. Asked if he was going to beat Hoyer, Murtha said, “Yeah, you got it.”

Hoyer has been a member of the Democratic leadership on and off since 1989 and is a tireless fundraiser, recruiter and cheerleader for House candidates. Murtha is a behind-the-scenes powerbroker who managed both Rep. John Larson’s (Conn.) successful bid for caucus vice-chair and Pelosi’s 118-95 win over Hoyer for whip in 2001. Murtha garnered national attention last November for criticizing the Iraq war.

Murtha’s allies pointed out that leadership elections are conducted by secret ballot and that Hoyer’s numbers may be skewed by lawmakers who commit to more than one candidate.

Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) cautioned against underestimating Murtha. “We would have been nowhere without Jack Murtha speaking truth to power on Iraq. Don’t underestimate that,” she said.

Two prominent young Democrats, Reps. Kendrick Meek (Fla.) and Tim Ryan (Ohio), urged House members and newly elected congressmen yesterday to support Murtha.

But Murtha, a powerful appropriator, faces a difficult political calculus in rounding up support within the Democratic caucus.

He was counting on strong backing from anti-war liberals who praised his outspoken stance on the Iraq war, but Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), chair of the Out of Iraq Caucus, is backing Hoyer, and many progressives say Murtha’s strongly conservative views on social issues give them pause.

“A lot of us who are more to the left are not going to go with him,” said one liberal Democrat who is secretly backing Hoyer. “Look at his voting record on guns, choice, the environment, immigration, his support for military infrastructure building. He’s not with us.”

Murtha would also have trouble gathering support in the right-leaning wing of the party, while Hoyer is popular with the conservative Blue Dog Democrats, who see him as their champion in leadership.

Murtha was also betting that many members would fear that Hoyer would be antagonistic to Pelosi after their bitter 2001 race. Although that concern resonated as recently as early 2005, many members have been impressed by his recent work as whip under Pelosi.

Eight senior Democrats circulated a letter yesterday backing Hoyer.

“Nancy and Steny have been a terrific team, helping our caucus achieve great unity,” wrote Reps. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), John Dingell (D-Mich.), John Lewis (D-Ga.), Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.), Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.), James Oberstar (D-Minn.) and Ike Skelton (D-Mo.). “Steny has worked nonstop for House Democrats.”

Pelosi has the clout to tip the race to either candidate. Thus far she has not stepped in.

Races for the next two positions in House leadership, majority whip and Democratic caucus chairman, hinge on Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), the Democrats’ bright, diligent, sui generis campaign chief who engineered their breathtaking win Tuesday.

Democrats are eager to reward Emanuel, but have no clear vacancy in leadership. Emanuel said yesterday that he would wait 24 hours before deciding on his future leadership plans.

If he runs for whip, he will take on caucus chairman James Clyburn (S.C.). An African-American who ascended unopposed to his current post, Clyburn has been corralling support from his colleagues for months in anticipation of a challenge from Emanuel.

“All I want to do is maintain my No. 3 position,” he said on election night. (Clyburn’s whip bid is an all-or-nothing gamble. If Clyburn loses, he will likely be out of leadership altogether because the Democratic rules require that members elect a caucus chairman before any other leadership positions. Thus, Clyburn could not run for a second term as chairman after having lost the whip race.)

Many Democrats agree that a fractious battle between Clyburn and Emanuel could expose deep fissures in the caucus and damage their unity before the 110th Congress even begins.

“It would be winnable for Rahm, but at a great cost,” commented one House Democrat yesterday.

A more likely scenario, some observers say, would be for Emanuel to move one rung farther down the leadership ladder to caucus chairman and insert himself into leadership between Clyburn and caucus vice-chair Larson.

Such a move would require that Larson be content to remain as vice-chair. Larson, 58, said on election night that “of course” he planned to run for caucus chairman, then added, “I’m going to be in leadership. A lot depends on what happens overall. What I do know is we’ll be unified.”

Three other Democrats are mulling bids for vice-chair if Larson does vacate: Reps. Xavier Becerra (Calif.), Hilda Solis (Calif.) and Mike Ross (Ark.).

Becerra sought and won the endorsement of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) this summer in an effort to clear the field of other Hispanics. He edged out Rep. Linda Sanchez (Calif.) and Solis in a three-way 9-6-2 vote. Sanchez ended her candidacy there, but Solis is considering mounting a bid based on support largely outside the CHC. She is seeking Pelosi’s backing.

Ross has also hinted that he may enter this race, arguing that he offers diversity of a different sort. Ross is a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, which represents about a fifth of the Democratic caucus but has no member in leadership.