Rove upbeat about GOP money, GOTV

Karl Rove told Republican supporters last Friday that the media was misreading the political environment — that the combination of money and mobilization of religious conservatives could keep the House in Republican hands after November.

Speaking at a fundraiser for Ohio GOP congressional candidate Joy Padgett at the Old Ebbitt Grill, Rove said polls showed that evangelical Protestant voters were still enthusiastic and suggested that Republicans started with a two- to three-point advantage because of their successful voter turnout operations in 2002 and 2004.

When asked if Rove remains as confident in private about the 2006 election, Padgett said, “Even more so.”

Despite evidence that voters could direct a barrage of negative public opinion against Republican officeholders on Election Day, Rove and President Bush have been upbeat, making some Democrats nervous about current predictions and worrying some Republicans.

“Even if you know the ship is sinking, you have to act like it’s a sunny day,” said former Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe. “You got to keep your folks motivated to get them out to vote.”

“Rule Number Six of politics: Don’t believe your own spin,” said Joe Gaylord, a Republican strategist and aide to former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), who guided the Republicans to victory in 1994.

Nevertheless, Republicans believe their significant financial advantage and the Republican National Committee’s get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation can protect them against the anti-Republican trends reflected in opinion polls.

“Republicans are building on their record,” Rove said at the event, referring to the GOP’s successful voter turnout efforts in 2002 and 2004. “Democrats are building on theirs.”

The RNC’s vaunted 72-Hour GOTV program has been in the works for months, taking hundreds of steps to help endangered incumbents, said a GOP lawmaker familiar with the efforts. The RNC even has set aside money and volunteers to dispatch to problem areas.

The party committee spent $350,000 for a GOTV effort in New Hampshire where the state party has been ravaged by scandal and helped register more than 3,000 new voters in GOP Rep. Heather Wilson’s congressional district in New Mexico.

In regards to turnout, Rove said a question in a recent New York Times-CBS poll skewed findings that religious conservatives were discouraged. Instead, he pointed to a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center showing that 54 percent of white evangelical Protestants viewed Bush favorably (still, a 20-point drop from 2004) and 57 percent said they supported GOP candidates (a nine-point decline from 2002).

Moreover, a Gallup poll released this month found that the GOP’s 22-point advantage among white frequent churchgoers in September had evaporated.

“The situation is exactly the opposite and under-appreciates just how catastrophically bad the situation is for Republicans among independent voters,” said David Rhode, a political scientist at Duke University.

Rhode pointed to polls showing that independent voters are breaking toward Republicans. A Washington Post-ABC poll released Tuesday showed that they favored Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin.

Former Rep. Tony Coelho (D-Calif.) said that Rove was speaking in absolutes in order to excite Republican voters. He added that he expected that religious Republicans would turn out to vote, but they would not do so in the numbers they did in 2004.

In 2000, Rove overestimated Bush’s showing in the election, predicting Bush would win 320 electoral votes; he won just 271. Four years later, Rove predicted Republicans would pick up seven House seats, but the GOP gained just three.