Despite poll numbers and Foley scandal, Republicans not vowing major changes

The week before former Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) resigned over revelations of his sexually explicit e-mails to underage boys and fled in his car from a furor that would soon engulf the Capitol, he sat calmly near the House floor reflecting on his party’s prospects for governing if it prevailed in November.

Republicans would need to get spending under control and solve the immigration puzzle, Foley said, adding, “I think there’s going to be a lot of looking in the mirror.”

But before the first spark of a scandal now threatening Republican control of Congress and the careers of several Republican leaders, most of Foley’s GOP colleagues didn’t share his concern.

After 12 years in power they are being blamed for leading a “do-nothing” Congress that has grown government, increased pork-barrel spending, and failed to pass significant reforms of immigration or social security policy — both major initiatives of President Bush. Routine spending bills were shelved for a post-election, “lame-duck” session despite the fact that Congress worked fewer days than any in decades. Several corruption scandals, involving former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas), former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham (R-Calif.) and Rep. Bob Ney (R-Ohio), were sources of continuous distraction.

But in numerous interviews with The Hill in September, most Republicans expressed comfort with the party’s electoral standing and said there would be little need for reassessments or rehabilitation if they retained control of the House in the 110th Congress.

Following a tumultuous summer of surging gas prices, war between Israel and Lebanon and more bad news from Iraq, Republicans returned from the August recess and watched President Bush’s approval numbers stabilize along with gas prices.  National security dominated the anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001 and the weeks that followed. Despite grumbling from their conservative base, including activists who said the party needed the medicine of an electoral defeat, Republicans didn’t feel they were ailing. They looked forward to continued control of Congress.

“I don’t see the need for changes. We rise and fall with the president in this environment,” said Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee on the day before the Foley story broke. Davis said any significant loss would prompt an examination, but, “If we hold it together I don’t think you will see any change at all.”

House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), who had received high marks from colleagues for deft handling of his first eight months in a difficult job, laughed when asked if he could think of anything the party should do differently in the next Congress. “I don’t know. I’m not ready for that,” he said. “My whole focus is getting through Election Day successfully.”

Now, polls show the Foley scandal has tightened competitive races and widened the battleground for Republicans — with as many as 25 GOP seats in peril. Three members of the House GOP leadership have been hit hard by the Foley affair — House Speaker Dennis Hastert (Ill.) canceled his plans for fundraising and campaigning in tight races in October, and House Conference Chairwoman Deborah Pryce (Ohio) and National Republican Campaign Committee chairman Tom Reynolds (N.Y.) are two of their party’s most endangered incumbents.

Last week, when asked if he stood by his previous statement, Davis said with a laugh, “I think you will see some changes to the page board.” He said the GOP has other problems, such as the war, but acknowledged, “We could have had a strong ethics bill. It would have made a huge difference. Our guys could have done a better job at that.”

Still, Davis said he doesn’t believe the Foley scandal wins the election for Democrats. “This is certainly another rock [Republicans] have to carry in their backpack,” he said, “but I don’t think it will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.”

Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who helped plan and execute the 1994 Republican revolution, disagreed, saying Republicans had the mantle of accountability in 1994 and have won since then because they preserved it. But in the last two years, Luntz said, that mantle has been lost by the White House and by congressional Republicans.

Hurricane Katrina, Iraq, illegal immigration, high gas prices, the earmarked appropriation known as the Bridge to Nowhere, and the Foley scandal make Americans believe Washington is not held accountable, Luntz said.

“Individually all were survivable, even in pairs it was survivable, but not as a group. This was death by a thousand cuts,” said Luntz.

Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.) was concerned about the party’s accountability before the Foley scandal. He said in September that in addition to fiscal restraint there is “still more work to do to clean up the way Washington works. I don’t think the American people will tolerate members of Congress benefiting personally by manipulating the process. We need to have a functioning ethics committee and set a higher standard.”

Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.), who like Shadegg was elected to the historic class of 1994, said last month that Republicans need to return to the “bread-and-butter Reagan issues” that they began veering from in 2000, under DeLay’s leadership.

“We need to return to principles of responsible budgeting and limited government. We’ve done well on taxes but you can’t hold down taxes while you spend too much,” Wamp said. “For a while the mindset was ‘go negative, raise money, and hold power.’”

Many Republicans have expressed deep frustration with the Senate, which has managed to bury many House-passed bills. Mike Franc, vice president of government relations at the Heritage Foundation, agreed that the legislative scorecard would look much better to conservatives had the Senate taken up House bills including a permanent repeal of the estate tax, legislation to allow exploration of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the Gulf of Mexico, the line item veto, United Nations reform and (the House) immigration reform bill.

“They perceive their problems as nothing that a few extra Republican seats wouldn’t solve,” Franc said. But the Foley matter presents Republicans and Democrats alike with the perfect opportunity for denial, Franc said.

“The results will give either side in the debate the opportunity to say they were right,” he said. “Every side is going to say, ‘We were right except for these freak occurrences, and but for those occurrences our vision would have worked out just fine.’”

Former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-Wyo.) said he has been campaigning for candidates and he has never seen more concern among Republicans.

Simpson listed the Terry Schiavo case, stem cell research, and votes on gay marriage, minimum wage and the estate tax as examples of the GOP leadership being out of touch with mainstream Republicans. Simpson said Republicans in Congress have spent time and energy trying to please special interests while leaving the important issues unaddressed. Citing immigration reform, Simpson said, the American electorate is aware that the Republican Party is in control of both chambers in Congress but refused to compromise and pass a bill into law.

“They might not know what a conference committee is but they understand what stubbornness and pettiness is and it’s not attractive,” said Simpson. “Why can’t a Republican-controlled Senate and a Republican-controlled House get together to do the nation’s business?”