Will it be a hot summer? Odds are yes for all but 2 states, NOAA says

by Alix Martichoux - 04/18/24 1:23 PM ET

(NEXSTAR) – You may want to clean out the kiddie pool and dust off the patio furniture early this year. We’re in for a hot start to summer, according to a national weather outlook released Thursday by the National Weather Service.

All but two states on the new national forecast map are show in shades of orange and red. The darker the color, the more likely an area is to see above-average temperatures between May and July this year.

The highest probabilities of an extra-hot start to summer are found in the Northeast, Washington state, New Mexico, south Texas and southern Florida.

The two big exceptions are the Dakotas. Both North Dakota and South Dakota – plus the areas that border the states – have equal chances of above-average, below-average and normal temperatures.

A small sliver of southern California and Arizona is in the same boat, though the majority of those two states are leaning toward warm weather.

The Hawaiian islands, which aren’t pictured on the map above, are facing a similar forecast over the next three months. Kauai, Oahu and Maui have higher chances of warmer-than-normal temperatures, while the Big Island is more a toss-up.

When it comes to precipitation, the next three months are looking drier than they have in recent weather outlooks. While the Southeast has a chance of seeing more rain than typical, parts of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest are looking dry.

Most of the country has equal chances of three different outcomes: average rain, more rain than normal, or less rain than normal.

The three-month outlooks are created by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Over the same period of time, between now and early summer, national meteorologists expect El Niño to end. Current conditions favor a switch to La Niña between June and August, NOAA said. It will likely grow stronger from there; La Niña and El Niño both tend to reach peak strength during winter.