The estimated Social Security increase for 2025 keeps dropping

(NEXSTAR) – The next cost-of-living increase for Social Security recipients — which was already projected to be the lowest in years — is continuing to fall even lower, according to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Based on the department’s consumer price index (CPI) data through August, Social Security recipients might expect a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to their payments next year, according to The Senior Citizen’s League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior advocacy group.

That’s lower than the 2.63% estimated in July and the 2.57% estimated in August. It would also be the lowest increase since 2021, when beneficiaries were given a 1.3% bump.

“A COLA of 2.5% would raise the average monthly benefit for retired workers of $1,920 by $48,” the group wrote in a Wednesday press release.

The Social Security Administration’s yearly cost-of-living adjustments are designed to help Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients retain their buying power amid rising inflation. These increases, which are issued annually, are determined using the Bureau of Labor’s consumer price index, which itself is a measure of the change in prices for common consumer goods and services.

Because of record inflation in previous years, the COLA had reached as high as 8.7% in 2023, but fell to 3.2% in 2024. Cooling inflation numbers continue to bring the COLA estimate down.

At 2.5%, however, the projected increase isn’t so “far from the historical norm,” The Senior Citizen’s League noted. (The COLA had actually dipped to 0.0 multiple times over the last 15 years.) But the group still feels that the prices seniors pay for medication, housing and groceries is not accurately reflected by the Labor Department’s figures.

“This year’s COLA will be important because many seniors said it didn’t keep up with their real-life expenses last year,” TSCL wrote in a June report. “Among the roughly 1,550 participants in TSCL’s 2024 Senior Survey, 69 percent said their household costs rose faster than the COLA last year, with costs for food and housing leading the way.”

The Senior Citizen’s League releases its COLA projections each month. The official COLA is determined by the Labor Bureau’s revised CPI-W data from July, August and September.

Next year’s cost-of-living adjustment will be announced by the Social Security Administration in mid-October, upon the release of September’s data.