Social Security COLA raise: How much will recipients get in 2025?

(NEXSTAR) – The Social Security Administration is less than two weeks away from announcing its cost of living adjustment (COLA), the percent increase in recipients’ payments designed to offset inflation.

According to the latest estimates, the COLA forecast is expected to be about 2.5%, but we’ll have to wait for the Oct. 10 announcement to know for sure.

The estimate comes from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) and is based on a decline in consumer price inflation from 2.9% in July to 2.5% in August.

“Ensuring that seniors have enough to feed and house themselves with dignity is a major reason why we advocate for a minimum COLA of 3%,” Shannon Benton, TSCL’s executive director, said in a news release. “TSCL research shows that approximately two-thirds of seniors rely on Social Security for more than half of their monthly income, and 28% depend on it entirely.”

The projected COLA increase is less than it was in 2024, when beneficiaries received a 3.2% bump.

The Social Security Administration calculates the COLA using average inflation data from the Consumer Price Index during July, August and September.

While there’s never been a negative adjustment, the COLA has been as low as 0% in 2010, 2011 and 2016. The largest COLA of the last two decades was 8.7% as the U.S. experienced soaring inflation in 2023. The greatest ever was in 1980 at 14%, SSA tables show.

TSCL says its research shows that a combination of soaring health care costs and inadequate COLAs have decimated the buying power of these income bumps by “over thirty percent.”

The rising cost of Medicare, for instance, isn’t covered in the COLA calculations, and some politicians are proposing a change.

“A monthly Social Security check is how most seniors make ends meet, we need it to pay our bills and pay for health co-pays and medications,” said U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who introduced the Boosting Benefits and COLAs for Seniors Act in March.

The bill was introduced and referred to the Committee on Finance, but has yet to see a vote in Congress.