NotedDC — How the Supreme Court could overhaul elections

Amid the whirlwind of the recent blockbuster Supreme Court rulings, the high court also announced that it would later this year take up a case that could hand significantly more authority over elections to states, sparking vocal concern among legal scholars. 

The case, Moore v. Harper, centers around the GOP-drawn maps that North Carolina’s courts struck down for partisan gerrymandering earlier this year. Republicans argue that the Elections Clause in the Constitution allows state legislatures to conduct and oversee federal elections without checks and balances from state courts. 

• “It would mean that state legislatures could pass whatever unfair maps they have and not face oversight from state courts under state constitutions,” said Joshua Douglas, a professor at the University of Kentucky J. David Rosenberg College of Law. 

Legal experts warn that a little-known theory at the center of the case – the “Independent State Legislature Theory” – is what empowered former President Trump and his allies to attempt to decertify the 2020 election results in some states he lost. 

• If the theory were adopted, state courts wouldn’t be able to invalidate a state election law. 
  
• “That might also include removing the Supreme Court,” David Schultz, a professor at Hamline University, said. “It would certainly empower the Trump people in terms of the fact that they’re already trying to elect people who reflect their views on voter fraud and election rules.” 

One of President Biden’s goals while Democrats control Congress is to pass a voting rights bill to expand voting access and registration, ensure fair redistricting and require states to conduct post-election audits for federal elections.  

• Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) effectively killed that effort in January when they rejected calls to abolish the filibuster to pass it, dooming its chances in the 50-50 Senate.

Read more about the case from our colleague John Kruzel.

Democrats double down on gun safety

Gun control is back into the spotlight ahead of midterms after the July Fourth mass shootings in a Chicago suburb and Philadelphia. 

House Democrats are again calling for more aggressive measures just two weeks after Congress passed its first gun safety bill in 30 years, which they are still touting as a major bipartisan accomplishment. 

• From Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y..): “This must stop. Congress must find the courage to finish what we started and #EndGunViolence.” 
  
• From Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.): “The #HighlandPark shooting happened—like all the other 314 mass shootings so far this year—because the @GOP’s gun policies choose killers over our kids.” 
  
• From Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.): “Republican or Democrat — we must find the courage to end the filibuster to free *all of us* of the daily fear of gun violence.” 

But it’s unlikely Republicans will come back to the negotiating table, considering that the bipartisan package to which they agreed excluded multiple Democratic priorities, such as measures to ban high-capacity magazines and raise the purchasing age of certain weapons. 

WHY ABORTION RIGHTS ADVOCATES HAVE THEIR EYES ON MISSISSIPPI

A judge is weighing whether a law that would effectively ban nearly all abortions in Mississippi can go forward as early as Thursday. 

Mississippi’s abortion ban, a catalyst for the recent Supreme Court ruling that ultimately upended the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that enshrined abortion rights, is under review after a Tuesday hearing, but it’s unclear when a decision will come down. 

Mississippi’s only abortion clinic is arguing that it should stay open past this week’s deadline as it challenges the law further. 

The clinic has argued that abortion rights have been decided on the state level in a 1998 case, Pro-Choice v. Fordice, leaving the termination of a pregnancy as a personal choice.  

Reminder: Mississippi had argued before the Supreme Court that it could ban abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy while also calling for the justices to overturn Roe, paving the way for state-wide bans that had already passed contingent upon such a ruling. Mississippi’s trigger law gave 10 days before all abortions would be banned.  

Meanwhile: Eight states already have banned abortion since the Supreme Court ruling June 24 because of those types of “trigger” laws, but federal judges in Louisiana, Kentucky and Utah have temporarily blocked them from taking effect in those states. 

Related: Our colleague Peter Sullivan writes that Kansas will be a “bellweather” state on abortion. 

SCOOP: Trump becoming more serious about 2024 run 

Sources told The Hill former President Trump is likely to announce a third presidential bid as soon as this summer. 

Our colleagues Brett Samuels and Max Greenwood report that sources said it is “a matter of when, not if” but that they “cautioned this situation remains fluid.” 

Why sources say it would be good for him: “The former president’s desire to announce a campaign sooner rather than later is driven in no small part by a growing sense that such a move could help insulate him from the work of the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.” 

Why a source said it could be bad for the party: “Republicans have had a lot of success talking about the economy and inflation and all of Joe Biden’s screw ups. No one wants to turn around and have to talk about what Trump is doing.” 

Trump would be the first one to jump into what is predicted to be a crowded Republican primary. 

Our colleague Alex Bolton writes that Trump’s troubles from the Jan. 6 hearings are opening paths for senators, like Republican Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Josh Hawley (Mo.), to throw their hat into the ring. 

ANOTHER POTENTIAL 2024 CANDIDATE GAINING ATTENTION 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is gaining more attention as some polls suggest he could beat Trump in a head-to-head primary battle. 

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) — seen as a potential Democratic presidential candidate — ran a new ad in the Sunshine state hitting DeSantis for enacting laws that target LGBTQ+ rights, voting rights and abortion, inviting Floridians to make a move to California. 

And now, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is getting in on it, saying Tuesday that Floridians should move to New Jersey if “you value values.” 

Read more about what Murphy said on Tuesday. 

The Right Stuff: GOP dating app sets its scene

If you’re a conservative looking to date other right-leaning singles, our colleague Emily Brooks did a deep dive into the new dating app created by Trump White House staffers: 

What’s different about it? There have been other conservative dating apps, but this one is heavily backed by tech billionaire Peter Thiel. 

What Brooks observed at an event: “Some singles at the Shaw event were optimistic The Right Stuff — free from the ‘woke’ features on other platforms — will help them find right-wing love without a barrage of users telling Trump voters, conservatives or unvaccinated people to swipe left.” 

For women, it’s free: “It will use a premium subscription model with a basic free version available for everyone, but a subscription available for men. Women, however, won’t have to pay.” 

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