NotedDC — The issues that will define the November elections

What’s more important when heading to the polls: Abortion rights or sky-high gas prices?

Republicans and Democrats are hoping they can predict that answer as key races for House, Senate and gubernatorial offices, among others, grow ever closer.

Democrats, grasping onto their razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate, are hammering on the Supreme Court’s upheaval of the landmark Roe. v. Wade decision as well as major new investments to battle climate change, among other issues.

Republicans, who have designs on taking congressional control in the midterms, are focusing on inflation (including, notably, gas prices), immigration and crime, the last of which has seen a surge in major cities amid the pandemic. 

“If you are a middle-income voter, and you see a large surge in prices right now, that’s not going to make you vote for the party in power,” John Couvillon, a Louisiana-based pollster and political analyst, told NotedDC. 

According to recent polls, voters slightly favor Democrats when asked about this year’s ballots. Still, the party is defending narrow majorities in both congressional chambers and the party that controls the White House typically sees midterm losses.

The Biden administration continues to face a series of challenges, including climbing out from the coronavirus pandemic, addressing eye-popping inflation and shoring up support for Ukraine amid Russia’s escalating war, to name just a few.

A big question will be whether voters put off more immediate concerns surrounding record gas prices and skyrocketing grocery bills to focus on longer-term priorities, like abortion rights and climate change.

Another big factor: Turnout. Midterms always have a lower rate than presidential election years, but in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, several states have adopted new procedures to allow for more mail-in and drop-off ballot options.

Couvillon, who checks in on voting trends regularly, noted Democrats tend to have the early vote advantage but aren’t doing as well as expected in crucial states like Florida.

“While Republicans had a rough August, things are moving back their way,” he said. “Republicans will vote in person, even early.” 

“Election Day is the big question mark,” he said. “How many voters are waiting until Election Day to vote in person?”

Welcome to NotedDC, your guide to politics, policy and people of consequence in D.C. and across the U.S. Today’s newsletter comes from The Hill’s Liz Crisp. 

📨 Encourage your friends to sign up here: digital-staging.thehill.com/noted.

📑 Jan. 6 panel: Highlights from likely final hearing

The committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol has subpoenaed former President Trump to testify about his actions leading up to the riot.

• After a blockbuster hearing that included new footage of lawmakers in real-time reacting to the unprecedented attack on the Capitol, the panel announced it is subpoenaing Trump to testify under oath about his role in the invasion after it interviewed hundreds in the former president’s orbit from the time of the riot.
  
• Trump reacts: On his social media site Truth Social, Trump struck back at the call for his testimony: “Why didn’t the Unselect Committee ask me to testify months ago?” he wrote. “The committee is a total ‘BUST’ that has only served to further divide our Country which, by the way, is doing very badly. A laughing stock all over the world?” 

Here are some other highlights from Thursday’s hearing:

1. Pelosi took charge: In video released publicly for the first time, the Speaker is seen calling governors and asking for backup to help secure the Capitol, demanding lawmakers resume their duties to certify the election so rioters wouldn’t “win.”

Pelosi, asking when Congress could resume its duties, was informed that lawmakers on the House floor were putting on their gas masks. “Do you believe this?” she said to the room. Later she said: “It’s gonna take days for the Capitol to be OK again.”

2. Schumer’s choice words: Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) chastised the then-acting Attorney General Jeffery Rosen, pleading on the phone: “Why don’t you get the president to tell them to leave the Capitol, Mr. Attorney General, in your law enforcement responsibility?” 

3. Trump tuned in: Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) testified that every witness the committee interviewed — including former press secretary Kayley McEnany; Keith Kellogg, who was the national security adviser to then Vice President Pence; White House aide Molly Michael; and White House attorney Pat Cipollone — have all testified that Trump was watching the attack on TV as it was taking place and before he released a statement later in the afternoon to stop the violence.

Bonus: The committee showed video of Pelosi, after she was informed that at least one of the rioters had defecated in the House chamber, fretting that “it could take some time to clean out the poo-poo they are making, literally and figuratively.” 

Plus: CNN’s Anderson Cooper has more never-before-seen footage of congressional leaders as they sought refuge at Fort McNair, 2 miles from the Capitol.

Here are more takeaways from Thursday’s hearing, from The Hill’s Brett Samuels and Rebecca Beitsch. 

QUOTABLE

“I said, f— the voting, let’s get right to the violence. Shoot to kill.”

– Trump ally Roger Stone a day before the 2020 election in footage shared by the Jan. 6 committee.

Wild Georgia debate hits main stage

It’s debate time in the Peach State! The highly-anticipated and only scheduled matchup between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Trump-backed Republican rival Herschel Walker will take place Friday.

• The closely watched race has been rocked by allegations of domestic violence, abortion and secret kids. That’s not even mentioning the pair’s wildly diverging political views.
  
• Polls have the two neck-and-neck, though showing Warnck with a slight advantage. The race could determine which party controls the Senate.

The Trump factor: Walker, a former football star who was encouraged by former President Trump to run for the crucial Senate seat, has backed Trump’s unfounded claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him.

For his part, Trump has stood by Walker even as bombshell allegations have emerged from past romantic partners and Walker’s own son.  

Warnock, meanwhile, sided with Senate Democrats in the unsuccessful vote to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial after the Jan. 6 riot. 

It’s the economy, stupid: Warnock has voted for the Biden administration’s major efforts to settle the pandemic-riddled economy, including the $740 billion Inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan infrastructure bill that’s sent millions to states. 

Meanwhile, Walker blames the Biden administration for the surging inflation that consumers are experiencing.

What we’re watching for in Friday’s debate: How will the topic of Walker’s abortion scandals be breached? Will domestic dispute allegations against Walker hit the stage? To what degree will the candidates tie themselves to Biden or Trump?

The debate is being hosted by The Hill parent company Nexstar. You can find where to watch the expected blockbuster face-off here. Organizers are encouraging those who tune in to tweet their reactions with the hashtag #GASenDebate.  

TAKEOUT THURSDAY

On his West Coast trek Thursday, President Biden met up with Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.) and L.A. supervisor and former Labor Secretary Hilda Solis for some takeout from L.A.’s Tacos 1986.

Biden told workers he was there to pick up a “takeout order for Bass.” But it was POTUS’ treat, apparently: Biden pulled out cash and asked the cashier, “What do we owe you?” (The restaurant said it was giving Biden a 50 percent “public service“ discount.)

Biden gave the cashier $60 and told him to give the next customer their meal for free.

What he’s having: Biden ordered chicken quesadillas. 

Next stop: Biden’s travels to Oregon on Friday and Saturday before he heads back to the East Coast.

NUMBER TO KNOW

247

Happy birthday to the United States Navy! From its humble beginnings, it’s now the largest Navy in the world. The Continental Congress commissioned just a pair of ships way back in October 1775 “for intercepting such transports as may be laden with warlike stores and other supplies for our enemies.” The enemy of target being Great Britain during the Revolutionary War. 

ONE MORE THING

It’s spooky season… What’s your favorite Halloween candy? We have the data from a new survey that shows just how popular your preferred treat is among your neighbors.

The results, as tallied by market research firm Top Data, show the peanut butter and chocolate combo comes out on top: Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups were the top pick in 18 states including California, Louisiana, Arkansas and Utah. 

Apparently, not chocolate aficionados… Texas, Michigan and Delaware all picked Starbursts fruit chews as their favorite candies.  

Stay with TheHill.com for the latest and recommend NotedDC to others: digital-staging.thehill.com/noted. See you next week!