Menendez reassures colleagues they can survive midterm Republican wave

The Senate Democratic campaign chief tried to reassure colleagues they
will hold back the Republican tide as senators prepare to leave
Washington and face hostile voters.

In a private lunch meeting Wednesday, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chairman Robert Menendez (N.J.) told colleagues he sees a new surge of political momentum among Democratic candidates.

{mosads}Democrats have reason to worry: Polls show Republican voters are more enthused about voting; an anti-incumbent mood has swept the country; and several incumbent Democrats and the party’s top candidate recruits are struggling.

But Republicans need 10 seats to take control of the chamber, and polls show they’re not quite there with less than six weeks until Election Day.
Polls on individual Senate races are mixed.

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) got good news Wednesday when a CNN-Time poll showed her leading Republican Carly Fiorina 52 percent to 43 among likely voters.

In Delaware, Democratic candidate Chris Coons holds a double-digit lead over Republican Christine O’Donnell.

And Menendez shared internal DSCC numbers that show Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) leading Republican Dino Rossi.

But polls have shown races are tightening for Democratic Senate candidates in Connecticut and West Virginia, where those candidates were expected to have a relatively easy time.

And Democratic hopes of taking New Hampshire’s Senate seat from Republicans appear to be fading. According to a Monday American Research Group survey, Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Paul Hodes, 46 percent to 32.

Recent polling has also shown that Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) is in trouble, while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) remains in a tight race.

Menendez argued that embattled candidates have climbed in internal polls since they started to hit back at Republican challengers, according to lawmakers who heard his presentation at a caucus meeting.

Wednesday’s session was the last scheduled Democratic caucus meeting before Election Day. Vulnerable lawmakers were in a rush to get out of town after postponing votes on several controversial issues until after the election.

“The feeling is up — people know it’s tough but there is strong will, great fight, enthusiasm,” said a senior Democratic senator. “This caucus was not in depression.

“All the poll numbers we see are moving,” said the lawmaker. “Barbara’s poll numbers are moving up; Patty Murray’s poll numbers are moving up; Coons’s poll numbers are very strong in Delaware.”

Another senior Democratic lawmaker said Menendez told the caucus that candidates have gained ground since going on the offensive against GOP candidates.

“The incumbents were holding back at first, but now that they’ve begun to hit back, they’ve done better in the polls,” said the senior Democrat.

The lawmakers spoke on condition of anonymity because Menendez discussed the political landscape during a private meeting.

A National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman said Democrats are in bad shape if they have to look to liberal strongholds for good news.

“It says a lot about the state of play that they need to give themselves a pep talk about California,” said Brian Walsh.

Walsh said the DSCC has spent nearly $6 million in Missouri and Pennsylvania over the last six weeks and its candidates in those states continue to lag.

{mosads}The Democratic committee appears to have given up hope of Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) winning reelection in Arkansas or Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) and Lee Fisher (D) winning in Indiana and Ohio. All three are trailing in the polls.

Walsh noted the DSCC has not reserved any television airtime for candidates in those three states.

The campaign committees can launch television ads at any time, but they often reserve airtime in advance to lock in cheaper rates.
Menendez declined to say where the DSCC would focus its spending in the final weeks.

Senate Republicans also discussed their prospects in the midterm elections.

“Go, fight, win!” said Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Everyone is feeling like we got great opportunities, we just need to maximize them.”

Cornyn said Republicans will stick to their message, which is to emphasize high unemployment, the slow pace of job creation, federal spending and the national debt.

Cornyn said the NRSC has decided to spend $1.2 million in West Virginia, opening a new battlefront in a state that Democrats were expected to hold with relatively little effort.

The highlight of Wednesday’s GOP lunch was the announcement that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) had pledged to give $1 million to the NRSC.
Cornyn said he hoped it would motivate other GOP senators to share from their campaign war chests.

Cornyn said Republican candidates were pulling away in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin, giving him a chance to funnel money into more competitive states such as Colorado.

Ken Buck, the GOP nominee for Senate in Colorado, met with Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) at the Capitol on Wednesday in a possible bid for more party support.