Debt ceiling vote will test Dems’ unity

Senate Democratic unity will face a test Saturday when
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) moves forward with a plan to pass a
14-month debt-ceiling extension.

The unity of the 54-member caucus has been Reid’s biggest
asset in his showdown with House Republicans. Senate Democrats have voted
together to reject various House proposals to link legislation unraveling
ObamaCare to a government funding stopgap.

If Reid keeps his rank-and-file members together, it would
strengthen Democrats’ leverage in negotiations to avoid a federal default later
this month.

But the vote presents a political risk to red state
Democrats who are undecided over whether to support a clean extension raising
the nation’s debt ceiling by an estimated $1.1 trillion.{mosads}

Reid kept his team together in rejecting the House-passed
stopgaps but only at some political cost.

Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) released a television ad last
weekend against Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), perhaps the Senate’s most vulnerable
incumbent, slamming him for voting against a House bill that would have
prevented congressional lawmakers and staff from receiving employer
contributions through the healthcare exchanges.

“Mark Pryor cast the deciding vote to make you live under
ObamaCare but Pryor votes himself and everyone else in Congress special subsidies,”
the ad’s narrator claimed.

Democrats note, however, that Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio)
initially negotiated to preserve healthcare benefits for congressional staff.

Democrats also argue red state incumbents will face little
political threat because the vote is on an arcane procedural motion.

“It’s just to debate the debt limit. No way that puts them
in political peril,” said a Democratic aide.

The vote also poses some risk to Reid’s negotiating position
because if any centrist Democrats defect, it would undercut his stance that it
is not appropriate to negotiate over the debt limit.

Sens. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) and Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) have
declined to state whether they will vote.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) says it would make sense to link
a debt-limit increase to deficit-reduction talks but has not ruled anything
out. Last month, Manchin voted against a House-passed stopgap tied to a
one-year delay of the individual mandate, despite earlier expressing support
for such a delay.

“I’m looking for a bigger deal, I’m not looking for kicking
the can” down the road, he said. “I’ve always supported the Bowles-Simpson approach, an all-inclusive deal, where you have
spending, you’re looking at the spending, looking at revenue and you’re looking
at basically reform.”

Pryor says he could support a clean debt-limit increase but
has also voiced willingness to consider spending reforms in conjunction with
expanded borrowing authority.

Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and Mark Begich (D-Alaska), who
also face tough races next year, are expected to vote yes.  

“I don’t believe the economy or the federal government
should be held hostage by a minority of Republicans who can’t get their way,”
said Landrieu.

“The key is pay the bills, open the government, let’s have a
conversation,” said Begich, who argued that 70 percent of recent
deficit-reduction has come from spending cuts.

He also noted that Democrats accepted the funding levels the
House GOP set in the stopgap.

Sen. Charles Schumer (N.Y.), the third-ranking member of the
Democratic leadership, predicts that “about every Democrat” will vote for the
14-month debt-limit bill, leaving a little wiggle room for defectors.

The Senate will vote at noon and the measure is expected to
fail along party lines.  Reid needs 60 votes to end debate on the motion
to proceed to it.

Senate Republicans are looking past the vote to negotiations
with Senate Democrats over a potential deal to open the government through the
end of fiscal year 2014 and raise the debt limit.

They have demanded a repeal of ObamaCare’s medical device
tax and a process to verify the incomes of people applying for subsidies
through the healthcare exchanges. In return, they are willing to extend the
nation’s borrowing authority for several months.

Senate Republicans have been negotiating with the two
Democratic senators from Virginia, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, whose state has
been hit especially hard by the shutdown, according to a source familiar with
the talks.

If the House passes a short-term debt-limit increase that
fails to reopen the government, the Senate could amend it with a bipartisan
agreement to expand borrowing authority and fund federal agencies, sending it
back to the lower chamber by the middle of next week.