GOP gets its wish with Sheehy in Montana: ‘A blank canvas with a big checkbook’

Senate Republicans got their wish Tuesday as businessman Tim Sheehy officially launched his bid to unseat Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), handing the GOP one of their top recruits as they try to take down a three-term senator who has proven to be tough to beat.

Sheehy rolled out his campaign Tuesday morning, playing up his past life as a Navy SEAL and his more recent one as a businessman, while arguing that Tester is out of touch back home. Republicans believe he is their best shot to oust one of the most prominent — and vulnerable — Democratic moderates.

“Incredible resume. Incredible bank account. And most importantly, he hasn’t run and lost before,” one national GOP operative said, laying out the pro-Sheehy case and taking a shot at Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), who lost to Tester in 2018. 

“A blank canvas with a big checkbook is pretty enticing in this environment.”

Sheehy, who runs an aerial firefighting company, has been atop National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines’s (R-Mont.) wish list for much of the 2024 cycle as Republican leaders look to avoid a Tester-Rosendale rematch. Republicans expect that the Bozeman-based businessman will dump millions of dollars into the race in a state where it is cheaper to compete than in most other battlegrounds.

However, he is a political unknown to most Montana voters, setting up a battle in the coming months to define him. As operatives on both sides note, wealthy, unknown candidates can be a blessing for their outsider nature, or a curse, as many are not used to the limelight and can struggle on the campaign stump. 

“We’ll see how he is as a candidate. On paper, he looks really good. On paper, it looks like somebody that not only will beat Rosendale, but will beat Jon Tester,” a second GOP strategist said. “Elections aren’t run on paper, though.” 

Democrats already see weaknesses. The newly minted Senate candidate has lived in Montana for less than a decade, according to the state government website, compared with Tester, a farmer who was born in the state.

The Montana Democratic Party made that point just hours after the Tuesday announcement, saying that Tester “has farm equipment that’s been in Montana longer than Tim Sheehy.” 

Tester allies also believe that wealthy outsiders who have flooded parts of the state, particularly Bozeman, pricing longtime Montanans out of the area, will give them another attack line if Sheehy wins the primary. 

“There’s only one unifying force in Montana. … The first thing anyone talks about is how Montanans can’t afford to live in Montana anymore,” said Bob Funk, a Montana-based Democratic strategist. “Millionaires are coming into this state and turning the land into a playground for them and their buddies, and no one likes that. … He embodies it perfectly.”

Sheehy’s road to the nomination is not straightforward, however. He will likely face off with Rosendale, who still has support on the right and is well-known by voters. In response to Sheehy’s announcement, Rosendale tweeted that Sheehy and Tester would both protect the “DC cartel.” 

But Rosendale has a steep mountain to climb. He was defeated by Tester by 3.5 percentage points in 2018 and is known as a poor fundraiser, having collected only $6 million during his previous Senate run, compared to Tester’s $23 million overall haul. 

That problem was compounded earlier this year when he was among the more vocal contingent opposing Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in his quest for the gavel, infuriating donors even further, according to two GOP sources. His refusal to take a call from former President Trump during the final frantic stretch to elect McCarthy — a moment that was captured on camera — didn’t help matters.

He was also among the 11 conservatives who ground floor activity to a halt for nearly a week earlier this summer.

“The guy is allergic to making friends,” a third GOP operative said of Rosendale.

Rosendale has indicated over the past week that he will enter the race in the coming weeks, pointing to a Public Policy Polling survey showing him with a wide, yet very early, lead over Sheehy. He is also likely to have the Club for Growth behind his potential Senate bid, a spokesperson for the group said. 

Sheehy is already taking steps to cut down on Rosendale’s advantage with the right via support from GOP senators with MAGA or conservative bona fides. Sens. Tom Cotton (Ark.) and Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.) became the first two senators to endorse him Tuesday afternoon, with more expected to follow suit in the coming days.