Poll: Republican Hawley leads Dem incumbent McCaskill by 4 points in Missouri Senate race

Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley leads incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) by approximately 4 points ahead of Tuesday’s vote in the state’s Senate race, according to a new poll.

The Trafalgar Group poll published Monday found that Hawley has the support of 48.3 percent of likely voters surveyed, while 44.4 percent of likely voters indicated that they will back McCaskill. Those results include respondents who said they leaned toward Hawley and McCaskill, respectively.

{mosads}The poll is slightly better news for Hawley than other polling in the race, which has shown the two candidates in a neck and neck race. The new poll’s results are based on surveys of 1,791 likely voters from Oct. 29 to Nov. 4. Its results have a margin of error of  2.3 percentage points.

McCaskill is considered a vulnerable incumbent as one of 10 Senate Democrats up for reelection in states President Trump won in 2016.

Trump won Missouri in the 2016 elections by double digits, and the Trafalgar Group poll found that his approval ratings in the state are currently above 50 percent. According to the poll, 53.8 percent of likely voters either approve or strongly approve of the president.

Trump has praised and endorsed Hawley in the race, and the state attorney general has consistently aligned himself with Trump while on the campaign trail.

Trump plans to hold a rally Monday evening in Missouri on the eve of Tuesday’s midterms, when Hawley’s race will be key to Republicans’ hopes to maintain and possibly expand their Senate majority.

The Cook Political Report rates the race between McCaskill and Hawley as a toss-up.