The appointment of Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) to fill the vacancy left by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) is throwing a wrench into the high-stakes California Senate battle amid questions over whether Butler will add herself to the crowded field in the coming months.
Butler has for years served in the background of the political scene but has suddenly found herself at the forefront, after California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) tapped her to succeed Feinstein, who died Friday.
She’s now likely to face frequent questions over whether she’ll seek to run for a full Senate term after serving the remainder of Feinstein’s.
If she did, that would throw a curveball into a race in which three members of California’s House delegation are already battling for the seat.
“It’s probably complicated if she runs for reelection,” one national Democratic operative told The Hill.
Newsom initially suggested that he’d only appoint a person to the seat who could not run for it, because he said he didn’t want to get involved in the battle for the seat.
But that led to criticisms that a Black woman named to the seat not be a “caretaker” senator.
Newsom made it clear that Butler would be no caretaker and that whoever was appointed was free to run for the Senate.
Whether the new senator does so is going to be a huge question.
Butler told the Los Angeles Times on Tuesday that she is truly unsure whether she will run next year.
“I have no idea. I genuinely don’t know,” Butler said, adding that she is focused on “honoring the legacy of Sen. Feinstein.”
“I want to carry her baton with the honor that it deserves and so I genuinely have no idea.”
The hill is steep in every sense for Butler if she decides to run.
The newly-minted senator must decide by the Dec. 8 filing deadline, giving her roughly two months to decide whether to mount a bid in what is likely to be the most expensive primary in the most expensive state in the country.
The trio of Democratic California Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee have raised more than $30 million overall, pointing to how expensive it will be for Butler, or anyone, to get into the race.
In addition, she has a low name identification in the state, especially compared to the other three members.
Butler does have a number of things going for her.
She would be an incumbent, which is generally a huge advantage.
And Democrats note that Butler in many ways personifies the party, giving her a natural in with voters if she were to seek the full six-year term, given her past work atop EMILY’s List, the preeminent group seeking to elect pro-choice women candidates, and as a union organizer for much of the 2010s.
“The two biggest things on Butler’s resume speak to where the Democratic Party is now,” the Democratic operative said. “Democrats have organized, ran and won on access to health care in swing districts and states across the country in special elections, and men and women know that abortion rights are on the ballot.”
Some Democrats in the Golden State are already calling on Butler to stick to the caretaker role that Newsom had initially laid out. Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.) said in a recent interview that there are “three exceptional candidates” already vying for the seat that “have been working more than a year” on the campaign trail.
“I just think it’s terribly unfair that she would do so,” Garamendi said.
Operatives also believe that if Butler jumps into the race, it would give another boost to Schiff, given the natural contours of the race, as he would be the only man in a race alongside three women. Schiff recently reported that he raised an additional $6.4 million in the third quarter and has $32 million in cash on hand.
One group that would likely be absent in the primary fight, even if Butler announces a run, is her previous employer.
Despite being the largest pro-choice group on the Democratic side, EMILY’s List is widely expected to stay on the sidelines and is unlikely to endorse anyone in the race, as there are already multiple pro-choice female candidates. The group doesn’t want to anger any of them.
“EMILY’s List is good at seeing the bigger picture. It’s about continuing the mission,” said a second Democratic operative who has ties to the group. “They have worked with [Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer] to get on the same page as the [Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee], because they understand that fighting to the death in a single race is not worth ruining the good work they’ve done.”
While Newsom had made it known for months he planned on appointing a Black woman to replace Feinstein if she resigned or passed away, Butler’s selection came as a surprise to Democrats for a number of reasons.
On top of Butler’s lack of initial interest in the seat — which she acknowledged to The Times — she was never known as a front-facing individual and, as a third Democratic operative noted, was considered more of a Kamala Harris person than a Newsom person.
“The appointment isn’t out of left field, but definitely wasn’t what folks were expecting,” the first Democratic strategist said. “She is a smart operative who checks a lot of boxes. She also isn’t someone inside the race, and California politics is unto its own.”