Senate Republicans who are concerned about former President Trump’s viability in a general election now see Nikki Haley as the last, best chance of denying Trump the GOP presidential nomination and averting what they see as a potential general election disaster.
GOP senators who don’t support Trump acknowledge he could win the presidency, given President Biden’s weak job approval ratings, but they view Haley as much more electable because she does not alienate independent and suburban women voters like Trump does.
They are worried that if Trump is the GOP nominee, it could still lead to a disastrous result for their party.
GOP lawmakers recognize that Trump has a commanding lead in GOP primary polls, but many see Haley as a better choice because she does not face Trump’s legal issues that include 91 felony counts in four separate criminal trials.
They also see Haley as a candidate far less likely to blindside them with wild statements or sudden sweeping policy pronouncements that would become political landmines in next year’s battle for the Senate majority.
The growing buzz around Haley comes at a time when many GOP senators are writing off Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s chances of staging a comeback.
“She has better prospects than he does because her numbers are going up and his are coming down. Usually, you want to place your bet on someone who is doing better,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who has urged Republican donors to coalesce around an alternative to Trump as early as possible in next year’s primary.
Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.), who has repeatedly stressed the importance of appealing to moderate and independent voters beyond the GOP’s conservative base, said Haley “seems to be” emerging as the leading alternative to Trump.
“She’s acquitted herself really well in the debates, and I think has done well out on the stump. Part of running for national office — especially in those early states — is relatability, and I think she’s got a good retail political style. Seems to be winning over some people,” he said.
Thune, who initially endorsed Sen. Tim Scott’s (R-S.C.) bid for the nomination, said Trump “starts with a very commanding lead” in national and battleground polls. But he and other senators think the race is still fluid.
“I guess the question is how much she can shift that narrative,” he said.
Senate Republicans are expecting Haley to get more media attention and another possible bump in the polls after the fourth Republican presidential debate, scheduled for Wednesday, Dec. 6, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. That debate is hosted by NewsNation, the sister network to The Hill.
Haley scored points in the earlier debates by going toe-to-toe with businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who has since lost momentum in the race.
Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.C.), who also endorsed Scott, said Haley is surging at the right moment a few weeks before the Iowa caucuses, scheduled for Jan. 15.
He thinks Republican voters are starting to think more seriously about shifting away from Trump, though they’re not there yet.
“The Republicans aren’t ready to make changes yet in their decision making — they’re getting closer. So I think her timing is probably pretty key,” Rounds said. “It will depend now on what the other candidates say and whether the other candidates decide they want to continue to battle on.
“After the Iowa caucuses, after New Hampshire, I think this will be narrowed down to a two-person race,” he added. “I think she has momentum.”
Scott dropped out of the race Nov. 13 and former Vice President Mike Pence dropped out Oct. 28. The other remaining candidates, including Ramaswamy, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, are polling in the mid to low single digits in national polls.
Haley’s biggest problem for the much of the past year is that she was stuck behind DeSantis as the leading alternative to Trump. But now that has changed, GOP senators say, and the new pecking order was underscored last week when Americans For Prosperity, the political arm of the powerful Koch network, endorsed Haley.
“I do believe that she’s starting to move ahead. To use the [Formula 1 racing] analogy, she’s probably in the P2 position now, moved up ahead of DeSantis,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who isn’t making an endorsement in the presidential primary.
Tillis said Americans For Prosperity has “a pretty good ground game,” which could help Haley turn out voters in key primary states.
“If DeSantis doesn’t perform in Iowa, and she does, then it sets her up for New Hampshire, and it becomes an interesting contest,” he added.
Tillis said DeSantis “peaked early and probably was playing it a little bit too safe at a time when he could have had a breakout moment.”
“Using a Florida, NASA analogy, I think the launch window has passed,” he added. “I wouldn’t count out Nikki Haley. She came in as governor [of South Carolina] the year I came in as Speaker of the [North Carolina] House, and I have a lot of admiration for the way she led South Carolina.”
DeSantis has put a heavy emphasis on winning Iowa, but even if he does, GOP lawmakers note that victory in the Hawkeye State hasn’t translated into success in other state in recent presidential primaries.
Former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), who endorsed Haley in October, described her as the only candidate to capture the imagination and interest of people who doubt or don’t want Trump as a nominee.
“If we want to win the presidency, she’s the person to do it,” he said. “All swing states are determined by the independent voters. Most independents today, at least in New Hampshire, are educated women. They won’t vote for Trump under any circumstance.”
Gregg said he doesn’t see DeSantis making a comeback in New Hampshire, even if he wins Iowa.
“Iowa has never had a huge impact on downfield primaries,” he said. “Iowa picks corn and New Hampshire wins presidents. … If you look historically, the person who comes out of Iowa [as the winner] doesn’t go very far, unless they’re the perceived front-runner.”
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) won the Iowa caucuses in 2016, and former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) won them in 2012 and 2008, respectively.
Some senators think Trump’s sudden declaration that he would make another attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act if elected was an attempt to burnish his conservative credentials and paint Haley as a moderate.
“I think he’s going to be more concerned about Nikki Haley getting the support that she has from the Koch group, so you’re going to see him trying to do things to activate his base of support,” Romney predicted.
Haley is now in third place behind Trump and DeSantis, according to an average of recent national polls compiled by Real Clear Politics. But DeSantis’s national poll numbers have dropped substantially since March, and Haley is only a few points behind him.
Several recent polls, including a Washington Post/Monmouth University poll conducted last month, find Haley in second place in New Hampshire, which hosts the second contest of the presidential primary. DeSantis has lagged behind in fourth place in three November polls of New Hampshire voters.
A strong showing in New Hampshire on Jan. 23 would give Haley strong momentum heading into South Carolina’s Feb. 24 primary. She has a home-field advantage in the state after serving as governor from 2011-17.
Since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina Republican presidential primary has gone on to win the party’s nomination every time except for 2012, when former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) won it.
Trump won the South Carolina in 2016 with 33 percent of the vote, while Cruz and Rep. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) tied for second place with 22 percent each.