The battle for the Senate majority has hit its final month as Republicans race to end their four-year stint in the minority.
The GOP needs to win only one of two competitive races in red states — Montana and Ohio — to do just that, barring a surprise loss elsewhere. According to Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Republicans have a 72 percent chance of retaking the upper chamber.
The bigger question is whether Republicans can strike gold beyond those two contests and stretch their success across the battleground map.
Outside of West Virginia, which both parties concede will go red, here are the top five seats likely to flip into GOP hands:
Montana
Sen. Jon Tester (D) is in the fight of his political life as he stares down what has easily turned into the toughest reelection battle of his career.
Tim Sheehy, one of the top Republican recruits this year, has opened up a consistent polling advantage over the three-term Democratic incumbent. A survey by The New York Times and Siena College released last week showed Sheehy with an 8-point lead over Tester — a margin that has remained relatively consistent since August.
That lead hasn’t dissuaded Democrats from continuing to pour money into the state, with both sides set to spend nearly $30 million in the coming weeks. Republicans have made clear they will continue to spend in Montana regardless of whether Democratic groups keep pouring money in — which GOP operatives hope remains the case.
Despite their faith in Tester, Democrats admit the outlook is bleak as he faces the daunting task of picking off enough supporters of former President Trump to put him over the finish line. According to the Times/Siena poll, Trump leads Vice President Harris by 17 percentage points in Montana.
“It’s going to be a political miracle if he wins,” said John LaBombard, a former top aide to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and a Democratic strategist with ROKK Solutions. “But Jon Tester, I believe, is capable of political miracles.”
Ohio
The fight between Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and Republican Bernie Moreno is showing signs of tightening as Democrats race to limit the damage in November.
Brown maintained a consistent lead throughout the summer, buoyed by an ad bonanza in an attempt to define Moreno. But Republican forces have answered in the past month, with Moreno going up with ads and groups run by top lieutenants of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) set to spend $80 million there between Labor Day and Election Day.
Now, Brown is attempting to hold Moreno off in the home stretch. Democrats are trying to further bruise Moreno on abortion after his recent comments to supporters that it is “a little crazy” for suburban women to base their vote on the issue.
Helping the sitting Democrat is the financial muscle he has to get that word out; Brown announced he raised more than $30 million in the third quarter.
But recent surveys indicate this race is a pure toss-up. According to a recent internal poll at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the race is deadlocked at 46 percent — marking a 2-point turn toward Moreno in roughly three weeks.
A new Washington Post poll also showed Brown leading by 1 percentage point while Trump leads Harris by a 7-point margin in what once was the preeminent swing state.
“Simply by praying Trump wins by double digits. His path to victory is not about him,” one national GOP operative said about Moreno’s road to winning.
The operative added Moreno’s closing message is a simple one. “Put your jersey on. Trump needs me in the United States Senate.”
Wisconsin
Perhaps no state has raised the eyebrows of political watchers in recent weeks more than Wisconsin, where Republican Eric Hovde is making a late charge to unseat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and nab a seat in “blue wall” territory.
Alarm bells have been going off in Democratic circles in recent weeks as the sizable lead Baldwin had throughout the campaign has turned into a narrow advantage over Hovde, a wealthy businessman who can help bankroll his campaign in the final weeks.
The Cook Political Report last week shifted the race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up.”
But after one close Wisconsin race after another over the past eight years, Democrats argue this is always where the race was going to end up.
“Wisconsin has Wisconsin’d,” one Democratic operative in the state told The Hill, saying it’s a 2-point race and that independent and men without a college education “remembered they’re Republicans and came home” to the GOP. “It’s not shocking.”
“The question is: Can Tammy hold the Republican-leaning voters she has picked up over the years, and what does the money look like? If Hovde and the NRSC spend at the clip they’re doing, they’re going to outspend Tammy Baldwin in the last month, and that’s a scary reality.”
Republicans say the gap has closed in part because Baldwin has been unable to differentiate herself from the Democratic brand writ large; one GOP operative labeled her a “generic” Democrat. They also believe some attacks, including over her decision not to disclose her partner’s assets and clients, have stuck.
“It’s a coin flip,” a Republican strategist involved in Senate races said.
Michigan
On the face of things, Republicans should have as good of a chance in Michigan as any non-Montana or Ohio state on the map.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) has been widely touted as a top GOP recruit this cycle, especially for an open seat that’s being vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). The Wolverine State is also among the preeminent swing states on the map, giving Republicans a clear opening against Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.).
Michigan, though, has been stubborn for the party when it comes to Senate races. No Republican has won a seat there since 1994. Yet, it’s not halting their hopes there as the GOP continues to pour money into the race and flood the airwaves.
Last week alone, Rogers and GOP outside groups spent $7 million compared to $5.3 million for Democrats amid private concerns from Slotkin that Harris’s standing in the state is not strong enough.
The major question right now is whether Rogers can close the gap. According to the latest The Hill/Emerson College survey, Slotkin leads by 5 percentage points. Trump and Harris are knotted up at 49 percent in the same poll.
“It’s still going to be a bit of a challenge,” the GOP operative involved in Senate races said.
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State has emerged as the preeminent swing state on the 2024 presidential map, but whether that will ring true for the Senate race as well is a major question as Republican David McCormick attempts to deny Sen. Bob Casey (D) a fourth term.
Much like the Wisconsin and Michigan races, Republicans have been encouraged in recent weeks that McCormick — buoyed by heaving spending by his camp and McConnell’s allies — is narrowing what has been a consistent Casey lead.
In the past week, GOP forces spent $9 million on the race, which has garnered the second-highest ad spending and reservation totals of any Senate contest, behind only Ohio.
This has prompted some Republicans to become increasingly bullish that this could be the year they take down the longtime senator, whose name casts a long shadow in the state.
“This is a dogfight, and I think McCormick is closing,” said Matt Beynon, a GOP strategist and longtime aide to former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), whom Casey unseated in 2006. “I’m hopeful for the first time, because with Casey, it’s usually pretty fatalistic. It’s like running against a Kennedy in Massachusetts.”
The Hill/Emerson’s latest survey released last week also shows Casey holding a 2-point advantage — putting the race within the margin of error.
But toppling Casey remains a tall task. According to the latest Decision Desk HQ forecast, the Democrat has a 72 percent chance to win reelection, with some Republicans in the state remaining pessimistic that McCormick can win.
“I’m feeling good about Pennsylvania’s chances across the board right now. I’m confident about the current standing. … And I feel great about the row offices,” one Pennsylvania-based Republican operative told The Hill, adding that McCormick is the lone exclusion of that group and that he still hasn’t gotten enough traction.
“He hasn’t been able to move the needle,” they added.