Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) is in a statistical tie with GOP challenger Jason Lewis, according to a KSTP-SurveyUSA poll released Thursday.
The survey gives Smith a lead of a single point, 43 percent to 42 percent, well within the margin of error, with 12 percent of those polled undecided and 3 percent supporting a third-party candidate. The same survey showed Smith with a 7-point lead, 44 percent to 37 percent, earlier this month.
“This Senate race could go either way, and it’s a bit of a surprise because Tina Smith has had a lot more resources than Jason Lewis,” Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier told 5 Eyewitness News, a Minneapolis-area ABC affiliate.
Schier said survey finds Smith losing ground among suburban voters and women, even as Democratic super PACs have highlighted sexist comments Lewis made in the past as a radio host.
“It’s been a long time since Jason Lewis has been on the radio as a talk show host,” Schier said. “He’s been a member of the House. He’s run for office for Congress twice and for some voters that’s old news.”
The survey is a shift from other recent polls, which show Smith with leads of between 4 and 10 points. The RealClearPolitics average gives Smith a 5.8-point average lead, and the Cook Political Report lists the race as “likely Democratic.”
In the 2018 special election to replace former Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.), Smith won with 53 percent of the vote.
KSTP-SurveyUSA pollsters surveyed 625 likely voters from Oct. 16-20. The poll has a 5-point credibility interval.