Gaffes, controversies and surprises shake up Senate 2010 playing field

Stunning developments in Connecticut and Kentucky this week
showed neither party can take anything for granted in the 2010 race for the
Senate.

Republicans expect to gain seats next fall – their
candidates are favored to win open seats in North Dakota, Delaware, Indiana and
Illinois.

But a lot would have to go right for the GOP to reclaim the
chamber. The party must pick up 10 seats without losing any of their own.

{mosads}That’s why Republicans were heartened this week when
Connecticut edged closer to being in play as Democrat Richard Blumenthal
stumbled over statements about his military service.

Blumenthal, the state’s attorney general, was seen as a
strong bet to retain retiring Sen. Chris Dodd’s (D) seat, but the controversy
could immediately give Republicans hope for an upset win in the generally
Democratic state.

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Tuesday showed Blumenthal
with just a three point edge over pro wrestling executive Linda McMahon, a far
smaller margin than earlier surveys.

And that was before the damage from stories over
Blumenthal’s past statements suggested he served time in Vietnam. Blumenthal,
who served the military stateside, acknowledged this week he had misspoken.

If Republicans were enjoying some good news at the beginning
of the week, however, they got some bad news by the end of the week when
controversial statements by a GOP-candidate in a seemingly safe race raised
questions.

Rand Paul on Tuesday beat an establishment candidate in
solidly Republican Kentucky to become the GOP nominee in the race to replace
retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R). But he quickly found himself on the defensive
over his views about civil rights.

Paul backtracked from comments in which he questioned
whether the government should be allowed to block racial discrimination by
private businesses.

And later in the week, he said that White House criticism of
oil giant BP “sounds really un-American.”

While Paul’s controversial comments might not allow Democrat
Jack Conway to win in a state that leans Republican, it certainly gave
Democrats some hope, just as Blumenthal gave Democrats hope in a state won by
President Barack Obama in 2008 with 61 percent of the vote.

“If they could tape Rand Paul’s mouth shut, it would
automatically be a Republican hold, but I don’t think they make tape that
strong,” said Larry Sabato, who heads the Center for Politics at the University
of Virginia.

Sabato still sees the race leaning toward the GOP, but notes
that Paul’s mouth is a wildcard.

Another wildcard: Pennsylvania.

A poll surprisingly showed Democrat Joe Sestak defeating
Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania after Sestak knocked off
incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (D) in a primary Tuesday.

The Rasmussen Reports poll taken the day after Sestak’s win
gave him a four point lead over Toomey – breaking with many earlier surveys
that showed Toomey in front, albeit by slim margins much of the time.

The new GOP uncertainties in Kentucky and especially
Pennsylvania may not dampen GOP enthusiasm too much.

Party officials are, to be sure, hopeful about several races
in seats held by Democrats. The GOP has an excellent chance of knocking off
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in Arkansas, and could get its grand prize by
defeating Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada. Polls show Lincoln and
Reid trailing their GOP counterparts.

But even if Republicans knock off Lincoln, Reid and claim
open seats in North Dakota, Delaware, Indiana and Illinois, it would give them
only 47 seats. They would need to win four more to take a majority in the
Senate, because Vice President Joe Biden could break a 50-50 tie in favor of
Democrats.

They also need to pick up some combination of Pennsylvania,
Colorado, California and Connecticut while not losing seats in New Hampshire, Ohio,
North Carolina, Florida and even Iowa, where Sen. Charles Grassley’s
eye-grabbing vote for Democratic Wall Street reform legislation may be
reflective of the worries many incumbents have.

Sabato, for his part, points out that the surprising twists
in several states this week are, in a broader sense, quite predictable.

“It is what normally happens as we move through the primary
process,” he said. “The odds get re-scrambled.”