Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts North Carolina gubernatorial race toward Democrats amid Robinson controversy

The political forecasting site Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the North Carolina gubernatorial race Thursday toward Democrats amid an unfolding controversy involving Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate.

“Obviously a fluid situation but Robinson was in bad shape before and worse shape now,” Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the site, wrote in a post on the social platform X.

The site shifted the North Carolina gubernatorial race between Robinson and Democrat Josh Stein, the state’s attorney general, from “leans Democrat” to “likely Democrat” after a bombshell CNN report that detailed offensive comments Robinson allegedly made online.

Robinson just before the story was published said he had no intention of stepping out of the race. “We are staying in this race. We are in it to win it,” he said.

CNN’s story revealed a wide range of inflammatory comments Robinson reportedly made on a pornography website’s message board more than 10 years ago, including calling himself a “black NAZI” and wishing for slavery to be reinstated.

“Let me assure you, the things you will see in that story, those are not the words of Mark Robinson,” the Republican candidate said Thursday in a post on X. “You know my words. You know my character, and you know that I have been completely transparent in this race and before.” 

Robinson has courted controversy with past comments, and has been trailing Stein in polls of the race.

North Carolina is also a battleground in the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris. The swirling controversies around Robinson have raised questions about whether he could hurt the top of the GOP ticket in that state.