46 percent in Florida poll say they will vote for abortion rights amendment

Less than half of the likely electorate in Florida say they would vote for an amendment that would legalize abortion up to the point of fetal viability, according to a New York Times and Siena College poll published Tuesday.

The survey, conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6, found that among likely voters in the state, 46 percent said they would vote for Amendment 4, which would legalize abortions up to what is about the 24th week of pregnancy, while 38 percent they wouldn’t vote for it. Sixteen percent said they either didn’t know or refused to answer.

To pass, at least 60 percent of voters must vote yes in favor of the measure.

Responses varied more the younger respondents were, the polling showed. Among respondents aged 18 to 29 years old, 63 percent said they would vote for the amendment, compared to 31 percent who said they would vote no.

The narrowest difference in percentage points of those who said yes versus no was between those aged 45 to 64 years old, according to the polling. For that age group, 43 percent said they would vote yes while 40 percent said they would vote no.

The largest difference was between those aged 30 to 44 years old, as 44 percent said they would vote yes and 38 percent said they would vote no, the survey showed.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has been one of the most vocal opponents of the ballot measure and has launched a political action committee against it. The state health agency, which is run by Jason Weida as DeSantis oversees it, has openly slammed Amendment 4.

The poll also asked respondents whom they would vote for between Vice President Harris and former President Trump if the election were held today, with 41 percent of likely voters choosing Harris and 55 percent choosing Trump. Four percent didn’t know or refused to answer.

Polling showed that Trump still leads Harris when respondents were given other options such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein, third-party candidate Cornel West, Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, or the choice to specify another candidate or not vote.

Fifty-three percent still chose Trump, compared to 40 percent who chose Harris, the survey showed. Five percent said they didn’t know or refused to answer.

The survey also found that 87 percent of respondents said they would definitely vote for a candidate they selected, compared to 11 percent who said they probably would. Only one percent said they didn’t know or refused to answer.

When asked how certain they were that they would vote, 68 percent of the likely electorate said they are almost certain, 25 percent said they are very likely, 4 percent said they are somewhat likely, less than 1 percent said they are not very likely and 1 percent said they are not at all likely, the survey found.

The poll was conducted among 622 likely voters in Florida. The national poll surveyed 3,385 likely voters and included separate polls for specific states. The margin of error for the likely electorate in the national poll was 2.4 percentage points and 2.2 for registered voters. In Florida, the margin of error was 4.8 percentage points among the likely electorate.

Updated at 1:37 p.m. EDT