Poll: Former Sanders staffer gains steam in race to replace Xavier Becerra

A former staffer for Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) presidential campaign is in the lead to replace outgoing Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.), according to a poll released Tuesday. 

Becerra, who was nominated to become California’s attorney general by Gov. Jerry Brown last month, will leave his safe Democratic seat open, pitting different factions of the party against each other.

The poll, conducted by Latino Decisions, a polling firm that worked for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, found that 29 percent of respondents would definitely consider voting for Arturo Carmona, Sanders’ former Latino outreach director.

The poll found 25 percent of respondents would definitely consider voting for Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez (D), the early favorite to win the seat.

Shortly after Becerra’s nomination to replace Sen. Kamala Harris, several local Democrats announced their intent to run for the seat, which represents downtown Los Angeles.

Gomez instantly became the man to beat, winning early endorsements from Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, State Senate leader Kevin de Leon, and several out-of-state Democratic lawmakers.

Under California’s jungle primary system, a primary election featuring all registered candidates from all parties will yield two candidates who will go up against each other in the general election, regardless of party affiliation. 

So far, 11 Democratic candidates have declared their intent to run, as has one third-party candidate and no Republicans, according to BallotPedia.

The Latino Decisions survey suggests Carmona is being helped by his affiliation to Sanders.

In a four-way race between Gomez, Carmona, former city council aide Sara Hernandez, and former Los Angeles United School District board member Yolie Flores, 30 percent of respondents said they would vote for Carmona, 19 percent for Gomez, 9 percent for Hernandez, and 8 percent for Flores.

The question was phrased with short introductions, describing Gomez as an “assemblyman,” and Carmona as a “former Bernie Sanders campaign deputy.”

In the following question, LD asked what endorsements would make respondents more or less likely to vote for each candidate.

Respondents overwhelmingly said a Sanders endorsement would tilt their vote favorably, with 72 percent saying they were more likely to vote for a Sanders-endorsed candidate, and only 17 percent less likely. 

Sanders declined to answer Tuesday whether he would endorse Carmona.

The poll also found that Garcetti’s endorsement of Gomez could help him; 65 percent said Garcetti’s endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate.

Brown is expected to call a special election to replace Becerra once the lawmaker is confirmed as attorney general by the California Senate. That is expected to happen this week.

Candidates with early leads have a distinct advantage, since the campaign will be a sprint compared to the marathon of a general election campaign. Although Brown has a wide berth in terms of when he can set the election, it is unlikely that Democrats will wait a long time to fill the seat.

With a progressive electorate pining for resistance against President-elect Trump’s policies, the timing of a potential Sanders endorsement could define the race.