The Hill’s 12:30 Report — Today’s the day: House to vote on debt ceiling deal

by Elizabeth Crisp - 05/31/23 12:30 PM ET

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–> A midday take on what’s happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha–breaks down crying hysterically.

HOUSE SET TO VOTE

In the nick of time?:

It’s time: After weeks of negotiations and plenty of hand wringing, the House is set to vote tonight on the debt ceiling deal.

Officially known as the Fiscal Responsibility Act, the proposal would cut federal spending by at least $1.5 trillion and raise the debt limit until 2025, after the next election cycle. The vote is expected sometime around 8:30 p.m., per the latest whip floor schedule — conveniently after Wall Street closes for the day.

How they (finally!) got here: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) stuck to his guns and ultimately got President Biden to negotiate with the GOP House majority, gaining several wins out of those negotiations. Now it’s time for the big test for McCarthy: Getting enough members to vote for the proposal to send it to the Senate, without risking his own standing in the GOP caucus.

The Hill’s Emily Brooks has more on what the saga means for McCarthy’s political future and what’s at stake as the House votes.

As Brooks breaks it down: “Basic political wisdom dictates that McCarthy needs a majority of House Republicans to support the bill in order to maintain his political power, and McCarthy has repeatedly said that he will meet that standard. He knows he’ll need Democratic help to pass the measure, but the more GOP members that vote with him, the better for the Speaker.”

Some Republicans are already threatening McCarthy’s leadership post over his deal with the White House — even before tonight’s vote.

LIVE COVERAGE: Follow The Hill’s up-to-the-minute coverage of the debt ceiling debate.

DEMS SWOOP IN:
Tuesday night, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has assured that his caucus will provide enough votes to ensure the debt ceiling proposal goes to the Senate.

Democrats are under no obligation to help McCarthy and his GOP majority out of the debt ceiling jam but have ultimately decided preventing a default outweighs the political points that could be scored. (The Hill)

BATTER UP! MCCONNELL NEXT IN THE SPOTLIGHT:

When the debt ceiling deal makes it to the Senate — assuming a successful vote in the House — all eyes will shift from McCarthy to Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.).

McConnell, who has largely stayed out of debt ceiling negotiations — leaving the task to McCarthy and the White House, will be expected to wrangle about a dozen votes even as some conservative senators push for amendments, which could significantly slow down the process.

With around 40 Democratic votes locked in, at least 10 Republican senators also will have to vote in favor to get the proposal to Biden’s desk by Monday’s projected default deadline. (The Hill)

HYPOTHETICALLY SPEAKING…

Top finance officials from 20 states are asking Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for more information about what exactly will happen if lawmakers do not raise the debt ceiling by Monday’s projected “x-date.”

In a letter first obtained by The Hill, the state fiscal officers ask Yellen for clarity on what the Treasury Department plans to do to ensure a government default doesn’t happen, as well as a “detailed explanation” on the date Treasury would cease extraordinary measures. (The Hill)

It’s Wednesday, May 31.I’m Elizabeth Crisp, filling in for Cate with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. Send me your tips, add me to your media list, share your funny animal videos and pass along your White House or 2024 campaign gossip: ecrisp@digital-staging.thehill.com and follow me on Twitter @elizabethcrisp.

🎓 In the White House

White House, GOP both claim victory on student loans:

The ongoing debate over student loans has wormed its way into the debt ceiling deal.

But who won in the fight? The White House is claiming victory. So are Republicans.

The debt deal would end the pandemic-era pause on repayments 60 days after June 30. That ends discussion over whether President Biden will give another extension that advocates had hoped for, but many Republicans opposed.

But Biden had already signaled in November that payments would resume either two months after the Supreme Court rules on his student loan forgiveness plan or 60 days after June 30 – whichever came first.

Shalanda Young, director of the Office of Management and Budget, said the bill “does end the payment pause but very close to the time frame we were going to end it as an administration when it comes to repayment.” The administration also has stressed that borrowers “need certainty” about the timeline. The Hill’s Alex Gangitano and Lexi Lonas have more on where things stand.

🏃 2024

Christie expected to jump into presidential race next week:

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) will launch a bid for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination next week in New Hampshire after toying with the idea of another run for months, according to multiple reports.

Christie, who has vacillated over the years between being a critic of and ally of former President Trump, also ran for the White House against Trump in 2016. Axios first reported Christie will make his announcement at Saint Anselm College on June 6 at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, June 6.

Christie joins an increasingly crowded Republican field, with Trump as the current frontrunner. (The Hill)

🚌 In other news

Video shows wild shootout between driver, passenger on North Carolina bus:

New video shows an altercation that ultimately became a violent shootout between a driver and a passenger aboard a Charlotte, N.C., bus earlier this month.

Nexstar’s WJZY obtained the video, which shows multiple shots fired between the driver and passenger and at least two shots flying by innocent bystanders. No one was injured.

The passenger, identified as Omarri Tobias, 22, is seen in the video approaching the driver to ask to be let off between designated stops.

The driver, identified as David Fullard, declines and asks Tobias to stand behind the yellow line for safety. Tobias is then seen pulling out a gun from his pocket, and Fullard responds. Watch the video here for the full altercation.

📺 MEDIA MOVES:

Veteran journalist and television personality Lisa Ling is joining CBS News as a contributor. (The Hill)

🚀 MAKING A SPLASH:

The International Space Station has four fewer residents today after the successful return of the SpaceX Axiom 2 crew overnight.

The return capsule containing four private astronauts splashed down off the coast of Panama City Beach, Fla., late Tuesday night, ending a 10-day mission. (The Hill)

🐥 Notable tweets

From the ~weird Twitter world~ files:

Ever wondered what’s happening just outside the frame of da Vinci‘s famous Mona Lisa portrait? Or van Gogh‘s famous Starry Night painting? Twitter user @heykody used AI to expand classic artwork to fascinating, and perhaps startling, effect. See the thread here.

⏱ On tap

The House meets at 2 p.m., and the Senate came in at 10 a.m. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in D.C, but Biden’s heading to Colorado later today.

10 a.m.: President Biden received the Presidential Daily Briefing.
11: a.m.: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and other members of the House Democratic Caucus began a press conference after a morning meeting with members.
Noon: Biden began a meeting with leaders of his federal emergency preparedness and response team for an update on extreme weather preparedness.
12:30 p.m.: Senate breaks for weekly closed-door caucus meetings.
1:30 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby brief reporters.
4:15 p.m.: Biden departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, then heads to Colorado Springs, Colo.
7:40 p.m.: Biden arrives in Colorado Springs. (Note: While in Colorado, Biden will deliver the commencement address at the U.S. Air Force Academy on Thursday.)
8:30 p.m. (approx.): House will likely vote on the debt ceiling deal.

All times Eastern.

📺 What to watch

1:30 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby brief reporters. (Watch here)
8 p.m.: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, on his campaign for the GOP 2024 presidential nomination, holds a campaign event in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. (Watch here)
8:30 p.m. (approx.): House is expected to vote on the debt ceiling deal. (Watch here)

☀️ In lighter news

Today is National Flip Flop Day! Sure, it’s meant to honor the summer post-Memorial Day whimsey by wearing your favorite casual sandals, but in D.C., especially during tense times like the debt ceiling debate, “flip flop” can take on a bit of a different meaning… Celebrate accordingly!

Very fittingly, my husband’s birthday falls on National Flip Flop Day (his preferred footwear, whether it’s a good idea or not). Happy bday, Delly! 💖

And because you made it this far, check out this video of a party I’d definitely love to crash… 🐮