The news that former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the presidential race on Wednesday evening sent shockwaves through the GOP presidential primary. It comes at a key moment, as former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley works to shore up support from disillusioned Trump voters in the early states.
Particularly in New Hampshire: Haley has been steadily gaining in New Hampshire and is polling 11 percentage points behind former President Trump, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling index — far closer than Trump’s margin in other states. Christie had roughly 11.5 percent support in the Granite State. If most of that support goes toward Haley — which it likely will — she has a real shot at canceling out Trump’s once-insurmountable lead in the first-in-the-nation primary state.
Why much of Christie’s support will likely transfer to Haley: Christie and Haley were both running as more moderate candidates. And while Haley has not been as critical of Trump as Christie, she is viewed as the candidate next most willing to call him out — positioning her as a prime second pick for Christie supporters. DeSantis is running further to the right than most GOP voters in New Hampshire: he is polling at 6.8 percent compared to Haley’s 30.5 percent, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s index.
What do the numbers show? The New York Times’s Nate Cohn looked at the polling to estimate how many of Christie’s supporters will back Haley. His analysis: “No, the Christie vote, alone, will probably not be enough. But she has been steadily gaining in the polls and, historically, there’s a lot of precedent for surging candidates to keep gaining — especially over a contest’s final days. With Mr. Trump at just 42 percent of the vote, there’s no reason to think her path is closed off.”
What about in Iowa?: Christie’s departure likely won’t affect Trump’s lead in Iowa, which has a strong Trump base. The former president has a 35.5 percent lead over Haley. Christie only had 3.7 percent support. Still, that support from Christie backers could make the difference in whether DeSantis or Haley comes in second.
Just how abrupt was Christie’s exit? The day before, he called New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) a “liar” over talk that he would end his campaign. Christie repeatedly rejected calls to drop out, vowing to continue at least through New Hampshire’s primary. Throughout his bid, Christie said his singular goal was to stop Trump from being president again.
^ This quote adds to why I was so surprised: Just a few days ago, Christie told the AP: “Let’s say I dropped out of the race right now and I supported Nikki Haley. And then three months from now, four months from now, when you’re ready to go to the convention, she comes out as his vice president. What will I look like? What will all the people who supported her at my behest look like?”
? Why it matters: Trump still has sizable leads in the early states and nationally. But this is a momentum game, and if the non-Trump share of the Republican Party can coalesce around one candidate, it could open up some real competition.
