It’s Tuesday. It’s a beautiful, sunny day in Washington, D.C. I really hope that groundhog was right about spring this year… Here’s what’s happening in politics today:

• House Republicans are expected to vote on impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas today. If one more Republican decides to vote against the resolution, it will fail. 

• A federal appeals court ruled that former President Trump is not immune from prosecution for his alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election results. The saga is poised to end up at the Supreme Court. 

• The bipartisan border deal is getting close to falling apart after Senate GOP opposition grows.  

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@digital-staging.thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

A federal appeals court unanimously rejected former President Trump’s argument that he is immune from criminal prosecution in his case related to his alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election results.

What next?: “Trump has already indicated that he plans to ask the full U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit and the U.S. Supreme Court to review the ruling. While his legal arguments keep failing in court, even rulings against him aid his goal of delaying any federal trial in D.C. until after the presidential election.” ( The Washington Post)

Keep in mind about timing: “If Trump wants to keep his trial proceedings from moving ahead, however, Tuesday’s ruling effectively forces him to appeal to the Supreme Court by Feb. 12.” (The Hill) 

Country music star Toby Keith died Monday at the age of 62, two years after being diagnosed with stomach cancer.  

📰 Read his New York Times obituary 

After *months* of painstaking negotiations, the bipartisan border security bill appears close to disintegrating before our eyes, just days after the text was released. 

Update this morning: Senate Republicans will block Wednesday’s procedural vote to begin debate on the border deal, reports The Hill’s Alexander Bolton, leaving Ukraine funding in limbo. What we know

What happened Monday?: Senate Republicans met and decided they want more time to study the bill. A Senate source told The Hill’s Al Weaver that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who endorsed the bill on the Senate floor Monday, recommended that members vote against the Wednesday procedural vote on the bill if they have reservations.  

Senate opposition so far: At least 19 Senate Republicans oppose the bill. That’s notable because it includes a number of McConnell allies, including Sens. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) and Katie Britt (R-Ala.). Plus: Senate Republican Conference Chair John Barrasso (Wyo.) said he will oppose the deal. Read his statement 

There’s one key senator to watch: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is from a border state and also an ally of McConnell, said he has “seriously concerns” about the bill. 

Read Al Weaver’s reporting on the uphill climb the bill faces amid growing GOP opposition 

💡 Why this matters: The bill’s biggest problem is that it’s an election year. President Biden has been feeling the heat on immigration, and passing this bill would hand a win to Democrats. Former President Trump has been repeatedly bashing the bill and encouraging his party to sink it. 

💻 Live blog of border bill updates 

1. “It doesn’t really ‘shut down’ the border.”
2. “It could make a huge difference for some immigrants.”
3. “But it would change very little for others.”
4. “It would make asylum tougher but faster.”
5. “It’s probably doomed.” 

Explainer for each from The Hill’s Rafael Bernal 

C-SPAN’s Howard Mortman posted a video of Reps. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) and Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) giving sandwiches to the Capitol Hill press corps.  

Van Orden told reporters: “I know we have an adversarial relationship often, but I know you’re working really hard, and just want to make sure you’re fed. So you’re not grumpy.  No one wants a hangry press.” 📹 Watch the clip 

The Hill’s Niall Stanage explains how the “GOP’s border bill outrage underscores a political shift.” 

Most of the debate has been around the border security measures, but the bulk of the funding in this bill goes to Ukraine and Israel.  

For House Republicans, the most politically popular component of the bill is the funding for Israel. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said the House will only vote on that component of the bill.  

^ Eh, but: The White House said Monday that President Biden would veto a stand-alone Israel aid bill.  

Why separating portions of the bill would still be tough politically: “Republicans, for instance, are divided over Ukraine aid. Democrats are at odds over new assistance for Israel. And both parties are split over the border changes, with liberals griping that they’re too tough on migrants and conservatives protesting that they’re not tough enough.”  

Anyone else feel stressed reading this?  

Read more from The Hill — ‘Ukraine, Israel aid in jeopardy amid Biden-GOP border battle’ 

The House is holding a historic vote this evening on whether to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. 

Republicans’ argument: “The articles of impeachment accuse Mayorkas of violating immigration laws, mainly by failing to detain a sufficient number of migrants, as well as ‘breach of public trust’ – a novel approach that has garnered criticism.” (The Hill) 

There has been a lot of pushback to that argument: Including from legal experts on the left and the right. The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch has a helpful explainer on legal experts’ assessment of the impeachment articles. 

What to expect in today’s vote: Assuming there is full attendance, Republicans can only lose three votes to impeach Mayorkas. Yes, but: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) is absent for blood cancer treatment, so Republicans can only lose two votes. 

How many GOP defections have there been? — Two: Reps. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) and Ken Buck (R-Colo.). One more GOP defection would tank the impeachment vote. 

GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley asked for Secret Service protection due to the increased threats she has received while running against former President Trump to be the Republican presidential nominee. 

Haley told The Wall Street Journal: “We’ve had multiple issues. It’s not going to stop me from doing what I need to do.” 

Keep in mind: “Haley’s work at the United Nations involving Iran could also be a factor.” (The Wall Street Journal) 

• ‘Christie calls hot mic remark about Haley getting “smoked” a “complete mistake”‘: The Hill 
• ‘Republicans fear they will be targets in Trump’s “retribution” campaign’: The Washington Post
• ‘Why Haley could lose to ‘none of these candidates’ on Nevada primary ballot’: The Hill 
• ‘Biden age and health, Trump legal battles concern voters in new poll’: The Hill 

🍦 Celebrate: Today is National Frozen Yogurt Day! RIP to the days when there was self-serve froyo in every shopping plaza. 💔 If you’re lucky enough to have one near you, here’s a list of deals today. 

👀 What now?: NASA announced that a nearby “super-Earth” exoplanet was recently discovered “just 137 light-years away from Earth.” We’re basically neighbors! The exoplanet is in a “habitable zone,” raising questions on whether it could sustain life. ( The Hill) 

🥅 Justin Bieber looks so natural on the ice: Singer Justin Bieber was a celebrity captain at last weekend’s NHL All-Star festivities in Toronto. 📹 Watch Bieber warm up with the players 

The House and Senate are in. President Biden is in Washington, D.C., and Vice President Harris is in Savannah, Ga., returning to Washington this afternoon.  (all times Eastern)

• Noon: Senators meet for weekly caucus luncheons. I would love to be a fly on the wall of the Republican luncheon today. 🗓️ Today’s agenda 

• 1:25 p.m.: Harris delivers remarks at the Savannah Civic Center for her “Fight for Reproductive Freedoms” tour. 

• 1:30 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre briefs reporters. 💻 Livestream 

• 1:30 p.m.: First House votes. Last votes are expected around 5:30 p.m. Today’s agenda 

• 2:15 p.m.: Two Senate roll call votes related to nominations.  

• 5:30 p.m.: Biden and first lady Jill Biden host a Black History Month reception in the East Room of the White House. Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff attend. 💻 Livestream 

• 5:30 p.m.: A Senate judicial confirmation vote.  

To leave you in a happy mood, watch this puppy conquer stairs in its own way. 

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