It’s Tuesday. Happy Michigan presidential primary day! Here’s what else is happening today:

• It’s looking increasingly likely that part of the federal government will shut down this weekend. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is under a lot of pressure from House conservatives to include controversial policy proposals, which are not helping the talks.

• Former President Trump’s lawyers are trying to block adult film actress Stormy Daniels and others from testifying in the March hush-money trial.

• President Biden while getting ice cream with NBC’s Seth Meyers, told reporters that a Gaza cease-fire could happen next week.

   

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@digital-staging.thehill.com.  Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

Senate Republicans don’t sound optimistic…

A partial government shutdown seems increasingly likely this weekend given that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is struggling to control his narrow majority.

Why Senate Republicans are worried: They fear a shutdown could hurt them politically and threaten their chances of retaking the upper chamber in November.

Where things stand: Congressional leaders didn’t release text last weekend for the legislation to keep the government open past Friday. This frustrated Senate Republicans because the top-line numbers have already been agreed to.

The latest holdup: Conservatives have a list of policy demands, which are stalling efforts to keep the government open. Including:

• Cutting Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’s salary entirely
• Blocking travel costs reimbursements for service members who obtain abortions
• Defunding elements of the Biden administration’s climate agenda.

Yeaaah, I don’t see those proposals passing.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) warning: “The country would face needless disruptions” if there’s a partial shutdown. He also said that funding the government “will require that everyone rows in the same direction: toward clean appropriations and away from poison pills.”

^ Read between the lines on McConnell: “McConnell’s comments appeared directed at the Speaker and House conservatives who are insisting on adding controversial policy riders to the government funding package, according to Senate aides familiar with the negotiations.” More from The Hill’s Alexander Bolton

President Biden just hosted the big four — Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) — this morning at the White House to discuss spending and Ukraine funding.

President Biden and NBC’s “Late Night” host Seth Meyers got ice cream together on Monday and chatted with reporters while ordering.

🚨 Biden made news at the ice cream shop: He told reporters that a Gaza cease-fire could start before next week amid ongoing talks. “My national security adviser tells me that we’re close, we’re close, we’re not done yet,” Biden said. “My hope is by next Monday, we’ll have a ceasefire.” (The Hill)

Watch Biden and Meyers order ice cream together

What they ordered: Biden ordered mint chip ice cream in a sugar cone. Meyers ordered honeycomb in a sugar cone.

Tidbit: Biden asked the camera people if they wanted any ice cream. “It’s not a bribe,” he joked when they signaled no.

Biden and Meyers posing at the ice cream shop

That’s a valid question. Biden made an appearance on NBC’s “Late Night” to mark Seth Meyer’s 10th anniversary hosting.

In 2014: For Meyers’s first show, actress Amy Poehler and then-Vice President Joe Biden joined. So for the anniversary, Poehler and Biden returned. 💻 Watch the ‘Late Night’ reunion

Tidbit: During the interview, Biden said he could neither confirm nor deny a conspiracy tying his reelection campaign to Taylor Swift. “That’s classified information,” Biden said. 💬 The full back and forth

Former President Trump’s first criminal trial — the New York hush money case — is scheduled to begin on March 25.

How Trump’s lawyers are prepping: On Monday, Trump’s lawyers demanded that three key witnesses do not testify. Read the 47-page motion

Who?: Trump’s ex-fixer Michael Cohen, adult film actress Stormy Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal.

Another part to this: “Trump’s lawyers also asked to block the notorious 2005 ‘Access Hollywood’ tape, in which Trump is caught on a hot mic disparaging women, and evidence from close confidants at the time of his alleged crime, including Rudy Giuliani and ex-Trump Organization chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg.”

Trump’s lawyers’ reasoning, via The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld and Ella Lee

Here’s The Hill’s tracker of former President Trump’s pending legal cases.

Voters in Michigan are heading to the polls today to cast their ballots for the 2024 presidential primary. The Hill’s Julia Mueller wrote a helpful primer on what to expect today.

The gist: GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley hasn’t heavily invested in Michigan, so former President Trump is expected to perform well. And President Biden is expected to do well.

So, why should we care?: Michigan’s primary results could give us helpful hints into Super Tuesday and candidates’ weaknesses for the general election.

From the local angle: Here’s a primary preview from the Detroit Free Press

Some voters are placing their vote as an “uncommitted” ballot as a protest to President Biden’s response to Israel’s war in Gaza. CNN explainer

“Former President Trump is coasting to the GOP presidential nomination, but the trip has exposed some real obstacles in his path to winning back the White House,” reports The Hill’s Brett Samuels.

How so?: “In New Hampshire, Trump’s easy win over rival Republican Nikki Haley masked a weakness with independent voters. In South Carolina, Trump trounced the former governor in her home state, but his win also cast a spotlight on the large swath of moderate Republicans who aren’t backing him.”

Some key points about Haley’s support: “Haley performed better than Trump in suburban areas that will play a critical role in November, and she also did better than Trump with more moderate voters. Roughly 40 percent of Haley voters indicated their vote was in opposition to Trump, a sign the former president has work to do before November’s general election.”

Read more: ‘Trump’s victories overshadow weaknesses in reelection bid’

• ‘Russia’s 2024 election interference has already begun’: NBC News
• ‘Haley Defiant as Campaign Braces for Blowout Loss in Michigan’: The Wall Street Journal
• ‘Biden’s Never Been Driven By Human Rights. This Time, It Might Cost Him.’: Politico
• ‘Biden has been bad for Palestinians. Trump would be worse.’: Vox
• ‘Biden Tries to Turn the Tables on Trump: “He’s About as Old as I Am”’: The New York Times

🍓 Celebrate: Today is National Strawberry Day!

💀 Omg: A Willy Wonka experience in Glasgow, Scotland, was canceled after being called a “farce” due to a poorly decorated warehouse. 🍭 These TMZ photos have me giggling. From one of the actors hired to perform: “We were told to hand the kids a couple of jelly beans and a quarter cup of lemonade at the end.”

🎬 This is too real: “Saturday Night Live’s” cold open mocked Republican senators who have endorsed former President Trump, despite him embarrassing them. 💻 Watch the clip

🚪Macy’s is closing 150 stores: Macy’s announced it will close 150 “underproductive” stores over the next three years. (The Hill)

The House is out. The Senate is in. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Washington, D.C. (all times Eastern)

• 12:45 p.m.: Biden and Harris have lunch together and then receive the President’s Daily Brief.

• 1:15 p.m.: State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller briefs reporters. 💻 Livestream

• 2 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre briefs reporters. 💻 Livestream

• 2:15 p.m.: Two Senate votes. 🗓️ Today’s agenda

• 3:30 p.m.: Harris convenes voting rights leaders for a discussion. 💻 Livestream

• 5:45 p.m.: A Senate confirmation vote.

Because you made it this far, here’s a dog’s official audition for “Dancing with the Stars.”

But just to be clear, this dog would be both the dancer and the star.

A friend forward this to you? Subscribe here.

View past issues of 12:30 Report here and check out other newsletters from The Hill here. See you next time!