Happy Super Duper Tuesday. How many “what to watch on Super Tuesday” articles have you read today? It wouldn’t be a primary day without them. 😘 Here’s what’s happening today:

• More than a dozen states are voting today. While we know President Biden and former President Trump will do well in their respective contests, there are a few interesting races to watch.
• A deal is on the table to keep the government funded past Friday, and it is supported by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), much to hard-line conservatives’ chagrin. There is a last-minute complication, though.
• Two days before Biden’s State of the Union address, he announced a “strike force” to combat companies’ price-gouging practices.

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@digital-staging.thehill.com.  Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

Voters in 15 states are casting their ballots today with more than a third of the total delegates up for grabs. While President Biden and former President Trump are expected to get closer to clinching their respective nominations with, it could still be an interesting night.

How to watch tonight’s results

A few interesting things to watch:

• How big is the Biden protest among Dems?: Michigan Democrats, who are critical of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, voted for “uncommitted” as a protest to the former president. Watch today to see how strong their effort will be in the primary contests.
• California Senate race: A number of candidates with high name recognition are running for the California Senate seat left vacant following late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D) death. California Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee are running, as well as former Los Angeles Dodgers player Steve Garvey. Instead of Republican and Democratic primaries, whichever two candidates receive the most votes today will advance to the general election.
• Will Nikki Haley stay: Will former U.N. Ambassador  Nikki Haley win any contests? And does she stay in the race after today?

Which states are voting?: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Utah and Virginia. Alaska will hold its Republican caucuses and the territory of American Samoa is holding Democratic caucuses.

The Republican math: To become the presumptive nominee, a Republican candidate needs 1,215 delegates. Trump has 221 delegates so far, according to The Hill’s partner Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), while Haley has 43. Another 865 GOP delegates are up for grabs today. If the former president sweeps, he will be close to securing the nomination but won’t officially reach the threshold.

The Democratic math: A Democrat needs 2,330 delegates to clinch the nomination. Biden has 206 delegates so far.

DDHQ’s delegate tracker

• ‘Do Americans Have a ‘Collective Amnesia’ About Donald Trump?’: “It’s only been three years, but memories of Mr. Trump’s presidency have faded and changed fast.” The New York Times
• ‘How Nikki Haley Can Win Super Tuesday Without Winning Anything’: The Daily Beast
• ‘Super Tuesday is the first test of what next year’s House GOP will look like’: Politico
• ‘Haley’s Fate on the Line as Super Tuesday Kicks Off’: The Wall Street Journal
• ‘Trump gets significant boost from Supreme Court at critical time’: The Hill

Bye, leverage!! 

The Hill’s Mike Lillis and Mychael Schnell report that “hard-line conservatives are up in arms over the bipartisan government funding deal endorsed by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), but heading into this week’s vote to prevent a partial shutdown, they’ve been forced to acknowledge they’re all but powerless to block it.”

The deal endorsed by Johnson: The bills essentially ignore House Republicans’ demands and contentious policy riders.

The problem for conservatives: They don’t have much leverage anymore. Republicans have such a slim majority that any deal will need support from Democrats unless they are completely united (which they aren’t), so Johnson has opted to work with Democrats over shutting down the government.

Conservatives’ last-ditch effort would be to threaten to oust Johnson, but they don’t seem ready to do that. (Remember, it only takes one member of Congress to bring up a motion to oust the Speaker.)

Read more: ‘House conservatives fume over deal backed by Johnson’

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports that an earmark battle is emerging in the spending bill fights. Depending on how the process goes, it could force a shutdown this weekend.

💡 What is an earmark?: A special request by a member of Congress to fund a specific project. Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) staff counted more than 6,000 earmarks in this bill.

How the earmarks are threatening a shutdown, via The Hill

1. “Democrats have touted the sweeping plan as protecting nutrition assistance and housing programs from Republican-backed cuts.”
2. “House Republicans have been lauding cuts to nondefense programs as the party has pressed for lower government funding.”
3. “Republicans have also cheered language in the bill that they say would protect veterans’ gun rights, after a similar GOP-backed push briefly slowed progress on funding last year.”
4. “Democrats have claimed victory in the exclusion of so-called poison pill riders pushed by Republicans from the compromise bills.”
5. The second government funding deadline (March 22) includes the more contentious bills. That could be a bigger fight.

Explainer from The Hill’s Aris Folley

A security fence will be installed around the U.S. Capitol ahead of President Biden’s Thursday State of the Union address. (Roll Call)

Is this unusual?: No, a similar fence was installed for last year’s address.

President Biden’s Justice Department asked the Supreme Court on Monday to block a Texas law that allows law enforcement officers to arrest migrants crossing from Mexico into the U.S. The Supreme Court then temporarily blocked the law, putting it on hold for at least a week.

Backstory: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) signed this policy into law last December, allowing for police officers to arrest anyone suspected of entering the country illegally. Migrants could then either leave the U.S. or be charged with a misdemeanor. The Biden administration has been battling with Texas over this law.

President Biden is forming a “strike force” to go after companies who have been price-gouging.

Timing: Biden is making this announcement two days before his State of the Union address.

What to know about this strike force: “The strike force, which will be co-chaired by the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), aims to coordinate the Biden administration’s efforts to rein in anti-competitive and unfair practices and lower prices in key sectors including food, prescription drugs and transportation.” (The Hill)

🧀 Celebrate: Today is National Cheese Doodle Day! So basically, it’s National Orange Fingers’ Day.

🦈 Spotted at the White House: Mark Cuban, the former principal owner of the Dallas Mavericks. He was there to discuss prescription drug costs. 📹 Watch Cuban walking outside the White House

🌅 The coolest photo I’ve seen in a while: Roll Call’s Bill Clark posted a photo of the sunset hitting *just* the U.S. Capitol.

🥫 You know, this is a great question: @wnbawife posed the question, “Why does a can of biscuits open like that. Is life not scary enough?”

The House and Senate are in. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Washington, D.C. (all times Eastern)

• 12:30 p.m.: Biden returns to the White House from Camp David.

• 1:30 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre briefs reporters. 💻 Livestream

• 2:30 p.m.: Biden meets with his Competition Council to make an announcement on lowering costs.

• 4:30 p.m.: First lady Jill Biden speaks at the National Parent Teacher Association (PTA) 2024 Legislative Conference in Alexandria, Va.

• 5:30 p.m.: The Senate holds a cloture vote on a nomination. Today’s agenda

• 6:30 p.m.: First and last House votes. Today’s agenda

Because you made it this far, let’s play a game. Find the missing dog. 😉

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