12:30 Report — Harris’s post-Labor Day reset

by Cate Martel - 08/27/24 12:37 PM ET

12:30 REPORT

It’s Tuesday. It’s officially the time of the year when I start craving the Honey Deuce cocktail. Did you know that more than *450,000* Honey Deuces were sold at the U.S. Open last year? Anyway, here’s what’s happening today:

More than 200 former Bush, McCain and Romney staffers endorsed Harris.
The Hill and Decision Desk HQ adjusted their House-Senate forecast for November. 🚨
Harris’s post-Labor Day challenges are coming into focus.
Vance handed the Harris campaign a gift on a silver ~doughnut~ platter.
Stacey London and Clinton Kelly are hosting a fashion makeover reboot.

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@digital-staging.thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. 

🚌 On The Campaign Trail

It’s go time:

Vice President Harris has been riding a blue wave of momentum in the past month, but the post-Labor Day challenges are beginning to materialize.

First, there’s no planned TV interview: Harris hasn’t done a sit-down interview since replacing President Biden on the top of the ticket. She’s delivered pre-written remarks and has done short press gaggles, but those are not conducive to tough questions or follow-ups. This has given conservatives ammunition. She did recently say that her team would have one “scheduled before the end of the month.” But it’s already Aug. 27 …

And then there’s the debate: The Sept. 10 Trump-Harris debate is in question over squabbles regarding microphones. Assuming the debate does happen, it will be high stakes. She will have to defend the Biden administration’s policies and face former President Trump.

Plus: The Hill’s Niall Stanage points out that Harris must also explain her shift in policy positions over the past few years. Think: No longer supporting a fracking ban and her stronger border security position.

And what we know about the debate saga: ‘Questions grow about whether Trump, Harris will debate’

➤ ADD 200 TO KAMALA’S COLUMN:

More than 200 former aides to former President George W. Bush, former Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) have endorsed Harris’s presidential campaign.

🔎 The list of Republicans endorsing Harris

➤ MORE READS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

‘Trump’s Evangelical Supporters Just Lost Their Best Excuse’: The Atlantic
‘Taunting Trump: Harris campaign’s sneer tactics’: Axios
‘Will Harris’s Lead Last? A Few Questions That Will Shape the Answer.’: The New York Times
‘Biden, Harris push scrutiny of police. Trump would halt such efforts.’: The Washington Post

🍩 The talk of social media

I’ll order ‘whatever makes sense’ next time I go to a bakery:

The Harris-Walz campaign stumbled onto the perfect gift — and it wasn’t even one of its own creation.

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), former President Trump‘s running mate, walked into a doughnut shop in Georgia last week for a standard campaign trail meet-and-greet. He met with bakery workers and ordered some goodies, but it was an awkward interaction. So, naturally, it instantly became an internet meme.

“I’m JD Vance, and I’m running for vice president,” he tells the woman behind the counter, making small talk. “OK,” she responded, sounding disinterested. Vance then orders. “A lot of glazed, some sprinkle stuff, some of these cinnamon rolls, whatever makes sense,” he says, pointing at the counter.

📹 Watch the clip if you haven’t seen it by now. It makes me cringe.

Progressive social media users had a ball with this clip. I’ve seen many spoofs of the quote, “whatever makes sense.” Watch some of the skits:

‘JD Vance talks with people at the park’: Watch on X

‘JD Vance goes to a donut shop’: Watch on TikTok

‘JD Vance at a Donut Shop’: Watch on TikTok

Now compare that to a recent video of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D.), Vice President Harris‘s running mate, stopping by “iconic” sandwich shop Runza with his wife Gwen Walz in Nebraska.

“We really came just to go to Runza and then we did a little rally on the side,” Walz jokingly told shop workers. He then holds up a Swiss cheese and mushroom sandwich, showing off the bread like a food review YouTuber. 📹 Watch the clip

💡 Why this matters: Vance’s bakery blunder wasn’t a manufactured viral moment orchestrated by his political competitors. It was organic — captured by C-SPAN — and that’s why it was so effective. The Harris-Walz campaign could sit back and watch this play out. Meanwhile, Walz has been painted as a relatable high school football coach. These seemingly minor interactions put that dynamic on full display. Democrats have been winning the internet campaign this summer, but it’s unclear how that will translate into battleground votes.

Their TikTok popularity: Vance posted his first TikTok on Aug. 1 and has more than 500,000 followers, as of Aug. 26. Walz posted his first video two weeks later and already has more than 1.3 million followers. Trump has more than 10.6 million followers, and Harris has 3.9 million.

🗳️ In Congress

Are you taking the over or the under?:

The Hill and Decision Desk HQ have been tracking the chances that each party will win in November.

The White House: Harris has a 55 percent chance of defeating Trump. In July, Biden had a 44 percent chance of winning.

The Senate: Republicans have a 67 percent chance of winning the Senate, down from 78 percent when Biden was at the top of the ticket.

The House: Republicans have a 56 percent chance of keeping the House, down from 61 percent.

The Hill’s Jared Gans and Mychael Schnell break down the latest odds.

🐝 Internet Buzz

🍑 Celebrate: Today is National Peach Day!

👠 Stacey London and Clinton Kelly are back!: The hosts of early 2000s show “What Not to Wear” are launching a fashion makeover show called, “What Whatever the F You Want.” It will stream on Prime Video.

🎙️ The Taylor Swift effect: Brothers and footballers Jason and Travis Kelce signed a three-year, $100 million deal with Amazon for their podcast “New Heights.”

🦞 Shed a tear for the cheddar bay biscuit: Red Lobster is closing an additional 23 locations by the end of the month.