It’s Wednesday. We’re 13 days from Election Day, folks!🎵 Cause in a fortnight, all the ballots will be cast 🎵  Here’s what’s happening today:

• Harris is doing a CNN town hall tonight.
• Early voting figures are worrying Democrats, but there’s *a lot* we don’t know about the numbers.
• Pollster Nate Silver said today his gut feeling is that Trump will win.
• Obama rapped an Eminem song while campaigning for Harris last night.
• Yelp paused reviews for the McDonald’s Trump visited.
• The Hill turns 30 today! 🎂 Read the celebratory letter from our editor-in-chief, Bob Cusack. 

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@digital-staging.thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

Early voting is officially underway (in some form) in all seven swing states (!) Roughly 18 million Americans have already cast their ballots in the 2024 presidential election.

Early voting has sparked a lot of chatter and predictions for the election, but that comes with two caveats:

1. While we know the number of early ballots that have been cast, either in-person or by mail, we don’t know whom those voters chose.
   
   
2. We also don’t know whether the burst of early voting signals voter enthusiasm or just simply a change in voter habits.

For context: More than 100 million votes were cast in 2020, but that was during the COVID-19 pandemic, so that likely won’t be matched this year.

Early voting is political. Well, it was until this year: Democrats have long encouraged supporters to vote early. Meanwhile, Republicans have been hot and cold on the practice. Just four years ago, former President Trump condemned early voting with unfounded claims of voter fraud. However, Republicans have recently changed their tune and have been encouraging supporters to vote whenever and however they can.  

💡What political analysts are watching: Early voting should favor Democrats. When we look at early voting totals, expect to see higher numbers for Democrats. But expect to see more Election Day voting from Republicans. However, if those numbers are skewed (think: Nevada), that’s when alarm bells are raised.

Some good news for Democrats: Nearly 18 million Americans have registered to vote since the 2022 midterms — and the largest share of those voters are Democrats, according to CBS News.

Some good news for Republicans: More Republicans appear to be voting this year.  

Related: The Hill’s Niall Stanage pulled together a helpful guide of “what we know, and what we don’t, about early voting numbers.”

📹 An early voting line in Houston, Texas (from Tuesday afternoon)

📸 The Walz family voted early in St. Paul, Minn.

Democratic circles are increasingly worried the presidential race may be slipping further away from Vice President Harris, reports The Hill’s Amie Parnes.

What is worrying Dems?: Democrats’ weaknesses in the “blue wall” states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are starting to show. Just look at the tight Senate races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is not only the biggest Electoral College prize of the battleground states, but it is also a key path to victory.

Read the reporting of what Democratic circles are privately saying: ‘Democrats fear race may be slipping away from Harris’

💡 Is the fear warranted?: Yes and no. Harris could absolutely win the White House. Nearly every poll reflects a complete toss-up. But what worries Democrats is the shifting trend away from her. Harris had a splashy rollout over the summer, and polling echoed that excitement. It has since died down, and any small misstep could tip the race.

Veteran pollster Nate Silver said his “gut” is telling him that Trump will win the election. But he also wrote: “Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine.”

Read Silver’s guest essay in The New York Times

FWIW: Veteran Democratic political strategist James Carville thinks Harris will win and has three reasons.

Former President Obama rapped part of an Eminem song during a rally last night.

“My palms are sweaty, knees weak, arms are heavy, vomit on my sweater already, mom’s spaghetti. I’m nervous, but on the surface, I look calm and ready to drop bombs …” 📹 Watch the clip — I love seeing this kinda thing.

I can feel Sasha and Malia cringing somewhere. I bet the Obama family chat is popping off today. 😂

‘How to win Pennsylvania’: The Atlantic’s George Packer

‘Why Gender May Be the Defining Issue of the Election’: The New York Times’s Lisa Lerer and Katie Glueck

‘Over 230 Republican candidates have cast doubt on the 2024 election’: The Washington Post’s Clara Ence Morse, Derek Hawkins and Carson TerBush

‘The Secretive Billionaire Network Funding ‘Stop the Steal’ 2.0’: The Wall Street Journal’s Rebecca Ballhaus and Mariah Timms

‘A Brief History of Tulsi Gabbard’s Evolution—From Democratic ‘Star’ to MAGA Republican’: Time’s Chad de Guzman

“An apparent U.S. intelligence breach related to Israel’s plans to strike Iran has unsettled the intelligence community and sent the Biden administration scrambling to determine if it came from a hack or an internal leak,” reports The Hill’s Ellen Mitchell.

Timing: “The breach, first posted to the Telegram messaging app Friday, comes as the globe has been bracing for an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran since Tehran fired some 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on Oct. 1 in response for the killings of top leaders in Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran’s prized proxies.”

Explainer: What we know about the Israel war plan leak

🥧 Celebrate: Today is National Boston Cream Pie Day!

🎈 Happy Birthday to us. Happy Birthday to us: For The Hill’s 30th birthday, we’re publishing pieces from some of our alumni. Check some of them out:

• From CNN’s Katie Bo Lillis: ‘The Hill let me report the story that changed my career’
• From The Washington Post’s Aaron Blake: ‘How The Hill helped me learn and grow as a political journalist’
• From The New York Times’s Jonathan Swan: ‘How The Hill and its editor helped launch my American journalism career’
• From The Hill’s inaugural online editor Klaus Marre: ‘Over 3 decades, The Hill has changed the conversation’

🍟 OK, this is pretty funny: After Trump visited a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania to work the fryer and the drive-thru, the business was inundated with fake Yelp reviews. Yelp even paused reviews for that McDonald’s. 🔎 Lol, here are some of the fake reviews

The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in Washington, and Vice President Harris is in Pennsylvania. (all times Eastern)

• 12:30 p.m.: Biden receives his daily briefing.
• 1 p.m.: Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) campaigns in Las Vegas. 💻 Livestream
• 1:25 p.m.: Harris leaves for Philadelphia.
• 1:30 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre briefs reporters. 💻 Livestream
• 3 p.m.: Former President Trump campaigns in Zebulon, Ga. 💻 Livestream
• 4:30 p.m.: Vance campaigns in Reno, Nev. 💻 Livestream
• 7 p.m.: Trump campaigns in Duluth, Ga. 💻 Livestream
• 9 p.m.: Harris participates in a CNN town hall in Chester Township, Pa.

Could you please judge this audition for “The Sound of Music?”

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