Morning Report — Haley’s challenge to Trump in New Hampshire

by Kristina Karisch - 12/26/23 7:25 AM ET

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It’s the day after Christmas and the countdown to primary season is on. It’s just three weeks before the Iowa Caucuses, the first battle in the leadup to the 2024 election.

Former President Trump is the overwhelming favorite in Iowa and for the GOP nomination, but in New Hampshire, which will hold a primary just eight days after the Iowa contest, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is gaining on Trump. Trump has a healthy 17-percentage-point lead on Haley in the aggregation of polls kept by Decision Desk and The Hill, but that’s down significantly since the beginning of December.

As recently as Dec. 6, Trump had a 27-point lead over Haley. And in a surprise poll released at the end of last week by the American Research Group, Trump had just a four-point lead on Haley. Almost every primary season throws up surprises, writes The Hill’s Niall Stanage, and an extra measure of volatility is added into the mix this time around because of the legal troubles hanging over Trump’s head.

In another pre-Christmas surprise, Colorado’s state Supreme Court ruled on Dec. 19 in a 4-3 decision that Trump was disqualified from being president again under the 14th Amendment. The ruling almost certainly won’t stand with the conservative Supreme Court in Washington, D.C., and the Colorado justices stayed their ruling until Jan. 4 to allow time for a Trump appeal. He’ll stay on the ballot as the legal fight continues — so long as he appeals — under their decision.

Colorado’s primary is on March 5 on “Super Tuesday,” and the state will be printing ballots on Jan. 5.

BUT THE BIG STORY MAY BE NEW HAMPSHIRE, and whether Haley can pull off a surprise and build some momentum. She certainly has Trump’s attention. In a Christmas Day post on Truth Social, he wrote “there is no Haley surge” and pointed to his wide lead in national surveys.

PRESIDENT BIDEN DOESN’T HAVE TO WORRY too much about a primary since his only challenger is Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), but he is staring down negative poll numbers, and frustration is building at the White House about the president’s low approval ratings despite a growing economy. Biden saw his approval rating hit a new low of 34 percent in a Monmouth University poll released last week. Days prior, a Wall Street Journal poll showed Biden at 37 percent approval rating. Trump is holding a 2 percent lead over Biden in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ national polling averages.

Sources told The Hill’s Alex Gangitano that the president has gathered advisers, both internal White House aides and external personal confidants, for meetings to discuss Trump, the negative polling and how to effectively message the president’s accomplishments. One ally said meetings have taken place because of “deep frustration” over polls but that it did not reflect a panic over the president’s prospects.

“The meetings are intended to discuss messaging on his age and his accomplishments,” the Biden ally said. “There has been concern among his inner circle that the messaging has not been strong or consistent enough to break through with the public.”

Biden must spend the next 11 months balancing the job of governing with his reelection bid, traveling the country as he seeks to convince voters he deserves a second term, writes The Hill’s Brett Samuels. The president already made issues such as abortion, the economy and Trump’s threat to democracy cornerstones of his first term in office and his reelection bid, and he will take those messages with him throughout the 2024 campaign season.

“American democracy — I give you my word as a Biden — I believe, is at stake,” Biden said during a recent trip to Massachusetts.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

▪ From Trump to Taylor Swift to the broken House GOP, here is a year-in-review of 23 wild political stories that shaped 2023.

▪ Many have gotten new jobs and raises. They’ve bought homes, boosted their savings and spent heartily. But higher costs of living have chipped away at their spending power, as have rising rents, food costs and utilities. The Washington Post asked six Americans to share their stories about the economy.

▪ Moms for Liberty is facing mounting concerns amid a sex scandal tied to one of the conservative education group’s founders.

LEADING THE DAY

INTERNATIONAL

ISRAEL’S WAR CABINET MET MONDAY night to discuss a three-step plan put forward by Egypt for ending the war in Gaza, Israeli officials said. The Egyptian proposal is the most comprehensive peace plan to be proposed to the two parties in the 11-week-old Gaza war, but some terms are expected to be strenuously resisted by both sides.

The deal calls for an initial pause in fighting to allow for the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of around 140 Palestinian prisoners. It would be followed by the formation of a transitional government for the Gaza Strip and the West Bank made up of various Palestinian factions, including Hamas. Israeli minister Benny Gantz, a member of the three-person war cabinet, told a group of hostage families on Sunday night that there are several proposals in the works but signaled it wasn’t clear they were all being seriously considered.

“I can’t say there is progress yet,” Gantz said, according to The Wall Street Journal. “There are Egyptian proposals and there are other proposals flying around from all kinds of directions. I don’t even know which of them are even relevant.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited his country’s troops in Gaza on Monday as he insisted Israel would go full force with its attack amid international pressure for an end to the fighting. Netanyahu previously vowed in an address to his political party that the war would not stop. “We are expanding the fight in the coming days, and this will be a long battle and it isn’t close to finished,” he said in the address (The Associated Press).

Netanyahu separately wrote an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal — known for its conservative editorial page — laying out his prerequisites for a peace deal, in a venue primed to make an influence in Washington and with the right. Israeli forces bombarded Palestinian refugee camps in central Gaza on Tuesday, residents said, in apparent preparation to expand their ground offensive into a third section of the besieged territory. The opening of a potential new battle zone points to the long and destructive road still ahead as Israel vows to crush Hamas (The Associated Press).

The United Nations Security Council last week approved a measure meant to step up humanitarian aid to Gaza, where thousands of people have been killed by Israel’s bombardment of the country in response to the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas that killed 1,200 people and more than 200 hostages in Gaza. The text called for the release of hostages, and for “urgent steps” to allow humanitarian access, and for added urgency to “create the conditions for a sustainable cessation of hostilities.” While the U.S. abstained from the final vote, it did not block the resolution like it did versions previous — a sign of how it has been trying to step up pressure on Israel over its handling of the war. The Biden administration’s support for the war has led to divides in the Democratic Party and criticism internationally (The Hill).

IN ITS PLAN FOR THE DAY AFTER Israel’s campaign to eradicate Hamas from Gaza ends, the United States hopes to pave the way for the Palestinian Authority to take control of the enclave by encouraging the formation of a new government and launching training for its security forces. But The Washington Post reports that so far, Washington is stumbling at one of the first hurdles — persuading Israel to unblock salaries needed to prevent the authority from collapsing altogether.

▪ Vox: The U.S. may be flouting its own laws by sending unrestricted aid to Israel. U.S. law limits aid to countries that violate human rights. Here’s why it isn’t applied to Israel.

▪ Al Jazeera: Israel hit Bethlehem in Christmas raids on the occupied West Bank. Dozens have been arrested as Israeli forces stormed Jenin and areas around Nablus.

▪ The New York Times: As the world’s gaze shifts to Gaza, Israel’s psyche remains defined by the Oct. 7 attack.

▪ The Associated Press: Biden ordered a strike on an Iranian-aligned group after three U.S. troops were injured in a drone attack in Iraq.

UKRAINE: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday praised the shooting down of two Russian fighter jets on Christmas Eve and said “this Christmas sets the right mood for the entire year ahead.” In a Christmas message, Zelensky also referred to Ukraine’s claim to have destroyed a further three Russian fighter planes on Friday (The Associated Press).

“The stronger our air defense, the fewer Russian devils will be in our skies and on our land,” Zelensky said, praising Ukraine’s “capabilities in negotiations with partners, capabilities in bolstering our sky shield, capabilities in defending our homeland from Russian terrorists.”

▪ CBS News: Snubbing Russia, Ukraine celebrated Christmas on Dec. 25 for the first time.

▪ The Hill: Ukrainian students are fighting Russia in their own way — even making drone parts.

▪ Al Jazeera: Russia says it seized the Ukrainian town of Maryinka; Kyiv denies the claim.

▪ CNN: Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny located at Siberian penal colony two weeks after disappearance.

WHERE AND WHEN

The House will meet for a pro forma session at 9:30 a.m.

The Senate will convene for a pro forma session at 9 a.m.

The president is at Camp David, where he will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m. He and first lady Jill Biden will return to the White House at 11 a.m.

Vice President Harris will travel to Los Angeles with second gentleman Doug Emhoff.

ZOOM IN

TRUMP WORLD

GEORGIA ON OUR MINDS: Gripping testimony from Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss in their defamation case against Rudy Giuliani led to a staggering $148 million in damages — and potential lessons for Fulton County, Ga., District Attorney Fani Willis (D) as she prepares to take her complex case to court. Freeman and Moss, the mother-daughter duo are also set to be star witnesses in the Georgia election interference and racketeering case, won some $100 million more than they requested, as a Washington, D.C., jury found they were not only defamed by Giuliani but also suffered severe emotional harm after he accused them of election fraud against Trump. And The Hill’s Ella Lee reports it’s likely the jury found their stories and experiences particularly impactful — a tactic Willis could use in her favor when calling witnesses against Trump and his 18 co-defendants in her case.

Though a trial date has not yet been set in the Georgia 2020 election subversion case, Fulton County prosecutors have requested an August 2024 start.

“It’s unlikely that a significant portion of the jury pool can understand how it feels to be an elected government official charged with running an election,” said Kay Levine, a law professor at Emory University. “But to understand how it feels to be a regular person just doing your job, and then to feel like you’re unfairly attacked — that may inspire more empathy.”

The Hill: GOP senators who voted to acquit Trump insist they don’t regret it.

TRUMP’S LAWYERS HAVE ASKED a federal appeals court to throw out a federal case alleging interference in the 2020 election, arguing that he is immune from prosecution. The move came a day after the Supreme Court declined to fast track a dispute over Trump’s immunity from prosecution. Special counsel Jack Smith made that plea for urgency in a bid to keep his criminal case against Trump on track for a trial starting March 4. The election interference case is on hold while the question over immunity plays out. The D.C. appeals court has agreed to work quickly, and oral arguments are scheduled for Jan. 9 (NPR).

ELSEWHERE

CONGRESS

CONGRESS FACES MORE GOVERNMENT FUNDING HEADACHES in 2024 as lawmakers stare down what could be steeper spending cuts than leaders bargained for as part of a previous bipartisan budget deal. Under legislation Congress passed this year to raise the debt ceiling, lawmakers agreed to budget caps for defense and nondefense spending for fiscal 2024. But House conservatives have since sought to lower spending under those caps, and the House and Senate have yet to complete their 12 annual spending bills.

The Hill’s Aris Folley reports raising concerns that automatic spending cuts set into the deal to incentivize lawmakers to act quickly will go into effect, making cuts on both sides of the ledger. Changes in Congressional Budget Office scoring have complicated matters further, and now, no one seems quite sure what will happen next.

“The world is our oyster in terms of possibilities here,” said Marc Goldwein, senior vice president and senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “I don’t have any expectations, and I don’t think anyone really knows what is going to happen.”

▪ The Hill Video: Year in Review: Chaos in Congress.

▪ The Hill: The House GOP points fingers after a disappointing year.

▪ NPR: Congress passed so few laws this year that we explained them all in 1,000 words.

▪ The Associated Press: As conflicts rage abroad, a fractured Congress tries to rally support for historic global challenges.

HEALTH

? SCREEN TIME: Many families will be buying their children new tablets or maybe their first cellphones this holiday season. While there is growing concern among health experts on the impact that screens and online activity has on young, developing minds, there’s also a growing body of advice on how to encourage healthy use of electronics. The Hill’s Joseph Choi spoke with child psychiatry expert Dr. Erin Belfort about the issue and rounded up guidance from across government and academia for a holiday guide to one of the most vexing challenges for parents — how to regulate their kids’ screen time.

THE BLACK MATERNAL MORTALITY CRISIS has received renewed attention in recent weeks amid growing concerns over the disparity in deaths between Black and white people in the United States. While the U.S. is among the wealthiest nations on Earth, it has the highest rate of death during pregnancy for up to a year afterward, according to the United Nations.

Black people are three to four times more likely to die from pregnancy-related causes than their white counterparts. For years, Black leaders have worked to address these disparities, but with the newfound focus on the issues, advocates say the lives of Black mothers could be saved. The Hill’s Cheyanne M. Daniels details five key things to know about the maternal health crisis.

▪ The Washington Post: What is “normal” body temperature? Some experts say it’s not really 98.6.

▪ The New York Times: In a wide-ranging interview, Dr. Monica Bertagnolli, the new director of the National Institutes of Health, discussed drug patents, trust in science and her own experience as a cancer patient.

OPINION

■ Why arguing is my cherished holiday tradition, by Esau McCaulley, guest essayist, The New York Times.

■ Book recommendations from Congress, by Steve Israel, opinion contributor, The Hill.

THE CLOSER

And finally … Gift cards. They make good stocking stuffers and last-minute gifts for those people on your list that nearly went forgotten. The National Retail Federation expected Americans to spend nearly $30 billion on gift cards this holiday season — one-third of which are restaurant gift cards.

Paytronix, which tracks restaurant gift card sales, says around 70 percent of gift cards are used within six months. But what happens to the others, that may end up in drawers and forgotten about after the celebrations end?

The Associated Press has a guide for what happens to the forgotten or otherwise unused gift cards, whose life gets more complicated, with expiration dates or inactivity fees that can vary by state.

Stay Engaged

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