Only four candidates who participated in the third debate last week are still in the race: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) announced on Sunday that he was suspending his campaign.
The stage at the fourth debate scheduled for Dec. 6 in Alabama could be even smaller, with the Republican National Committee (RNC) increasing the polling and fundraising requirements for candidates to qualify.
Candidates will need to reach at least 6 percent in two national polls or 6 percent in one national poll and two of the four early-voting states, which are identified as Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. That’s up from 4 percent for the third debate.
They will also need to attain at least 80,000 unique donors, including at least 200 from 20 states and territories.
With the race narrowing down, several questions remain ahead of the next debate and two months until the Iowa caucuses, as The Hill’s Caroline Vakil reports.
DeSantis and Haley appear to be locked in a battle for second place and the position of main alternative to former President Trump for the nomination. Haley has built momentum in recent months coming off of strong debate performances, so the next one could be key for her if she is going to fully overtake DeSantis.
But the Florida governor still seems to be holding second place in Iowa based on polling, while Haley comes in second in RealClearPolitics’ polling average of the candidates in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
The debate could conceivably only feature DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy, as they are the only candidates besides Trump who are regularly exceeding 6 percent in the polls. Trump has skipped the first three primary debates and has not indicated any intention to participate in any future ones.
Ramaswamy is averaging about 5 percent in RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, but he has had a few polls in recent weeks that have him at or above 6 percent.
One of the biggest questions surrounding the debate is the future of Christie’s candidacy. The former New Jersey governor has positioned himself as a chief opponent of Trump willing to strongly criticize the former president, but he has struggled in the polls.
He only has 3 percent support nationally in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. But his campaign did say on Monday that it reached the fundraising threshold of 80,000 donors.
The campaign said it has met the polling requirements too, but the RNC has not confirmed if the polls that the campaign cited meet its requirements.
Either way, time is running out for a non-Trump candidate to be positioned to face off directly with the former president.
As Caroline reports, some Republicans have wondered if an upset against Trump is possible in Iowa or New Hampshire, while he still maintains a notable steady lead in the polls.
