Publicly, the negotiated deal between Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin involved the Wagner chief’s exile to Belarus and the dropping of terrorism charges against him.
Yet experts say Prigozhin is far from safe, as Putin publicly fumes over the mutiny. And it’s unclear what the deal means for the future of Wagner, which has extensive holdings and influence across the world, particularly in developing countries in Africa, as well as ongoing operations in the Middle East and Latin America.
In televised addresses this week, Putin said the “majority of Wagner Group soldiers and commanders are also Russian patriots” and offered them a choice: Either sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense or other Russian agency, return home, or go to Belarus.
“Everyone is free to decide on their own,” Putin said.
Those options will likely allow the group to remain intact — for now. However, Prigozhin’s continued involvement, or further acts of provocation, could change Putin’s equation.
David Salvo, the managing director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund, said it was “hard to imagine” Prigozhin remaining in control, predicting he would either be assassinated or left to wither in exile.
“I don’t see how he retains influence without the company,” he said. “And it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Putin allows him to retain control over this massive operation because of how much influence and power he accrued.”
Salvo expects Wagner to be “stripped for parts” and broken down into several different private military companies headed by Putin loyalists.
That could be in motion already as the Russian Defense Ministry said Wagner Group will begin to hand over its heavy weapons to the Kremlin’s military, per the agreement struck with Prigozhin.
Breaking apart Wagner would enable the Russian president to continue benefiting from Wagner operations across the globe — including on the frontline in Ukraine — and prevent the concentration of too much power under one figure, as happened with Prigozhin, Salvo added.
Prigozhin’s short-lived uprising erupted after a long-festering feud between him and Russian military officials. The Wagner army rumbled unopposed for hundreds of miles from southern Russia toward Moscow before abruptly calling off the march.
Read the full report at TheHill.com.
