President Biden rallied Black voters in the key swing state of Pennsylvania on Wednesday, as polls show former President Trump making inroads among the younger voters who make up this core Democratic constituency.
Speaking at the majority Black prep school Girard College in Philadelphia, Biden announced a new eight-figure Black voter outreach program alongside Black Democratic leaders, including Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Biden campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond, and Congressional Black Caucus Chair Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.).
Biden touted accomplishments that he said addressed key concerns of the Black community, including executive orders on police reforms and student debt; removing lead pipes and expanding Internet access in underserved communities; new investments in Black-owned businesses; and pardons for marijuana users.
The president also bashed Trump for his pitch to Black voters, accusing him of spreading “MAGA lies” about his record.
“I’ve shown you who I am and Trump has shown you who he is, and today Donald Trump is pandering and peddling lies and stereotypes for your vote so he can win for himself, not for you. Well, Donald Trump, I have a message for you: Not in our house, and not on our watch.”
The outreach comes as polls show cracks in Biden’s Black coalition, which was so crucial to his 2020 primary and general election victories.
The latest data from Pew Research finds that 77 percent of Black voters said they either support or are leaning toward supporting Biden in 2024, compared to 18 percent for Trump.
That’s a strong majority, but in 2020 Biden won Black voters with 92 percent, compared to only 8 percent for Trump.
Among Black voters under the age of 50, the shift in support is even more pronounced, with Pew finding that 68 percent favor Biden against 29 percent for Trump.
The 2024 race is lining up to be extremely close and is likely to be decided in a handful of battleground states, so a shift of even a few percentage points among Black voters could impact the outcome.
“If anyone every wonders if their vote matters, remember this – because Black Americans voted in 2020…Kamala and I are president and vice president of the United States. Because of you, Donald Trump is the defeated former president and with your vote in 2024 we’re going to make Donald Trump a loser again.”
The location of Biden’s Black mobilization effort is also important, as “Scranton Joe” seeks to lock down Pennsylvania, which he won by 1.2 points in 2020. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by less than 1 point in 2016.
According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s average of polls, Trump currently leads Biden by 1.5 points in Pennsylvania.
Sen. John Fetterman (D-Penn.) warned on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that the race in Pennsylvania would likely go down to the wire.
“I fundamentally believe that it’s going to be a close race…Biden carried Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes, and now, he has a strong record, but it’s still going to be close. And for that eight years, Trump has a strong position in Pennsylvania. He definitely does, but I don’t believe he can win, ultimately.”
The Hill’s Jared Gans has the state of play based on the latest forecast model released by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.
The bottom line: Republicans are the favorites across the board. The model gives Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the White House, as he holds small leads in most of the battleground states. Republicans also have an 80 percent chance of winning the Senate, and a 64 percent chance of holding on to the House.
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