Intra-party divisions among Republicans and Democrats are spilling into the open this week as both sides feel the heat of an election that appears headed for the wire.
The divisions are playing out through primary elections and messaging tactics on Capitol Hill, where party leaders are desperate to present a unified front.
Neither party has much reason to feel confident about November, given the historically unpopular candidates at the top of the ticket. Here’s a quick look at where the tensions lie… 🔵 On the Democratic side: -
The Hill’s Mike Lillis got some rare on-the-record criticism from Democrats about former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who broke with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming speech before Congress. Democrats are upset at the appearance of Pelosi undercutting Jeffries, who is supportive of Netanyahu’s speech. This comes amid worries that progressive anger over President Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war might cost Democrats the election.
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The Hill’s Rebecca Bietsch has a big scoop: Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) is blaming the White House for scuttling a bipartisan ethics bill she’s sponsoring with Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), the chairman of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee. Three Democratic co-sponsors backed away from the bill after hearing from the White House, Porter said. The bill would be a big legislative win for Comer, who is conducting myriad investigations into Biden.
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The primary election in New York next week has reopened old wounds between establishment Democrats and the progressive left, with Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s (D-N.Y.) fate hanging in the balance. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and the progressive left are behind Bowman, but establishment Democrats such as Hillary Clinton are backing Democratic challenger George Latimer. A poll last week from Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill found Latimer with a big lead.
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is accusing some Democrats of moving to the right on corporate taxes as major parts of former President Trump’s tax cuts are set to expire at the end of the year.
🔴 On the Republican side: -
Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), the chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, could be the first incumbent to be ousted in a primary when he faces voters on Tuesday. Trump is backing Good’s GOP challenger John McGuire as punishment for Good backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) in the presidential primary. On Monday, Freedom Caucus member Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) backed McGuire. Still, some of Trump’s closest allies, including Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), are sticking by Good.
- GOP Senate candidate Larry Hogan, a strident Trump critic, is seeking distance from Trump’s surprise endorsement of his campaign. Hogan, the former governor who is running in deep blue Maryland, released an ad Monday stressing his political independence.
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In Georgia’s 2nd congressional district, Republican Chuck Hand is vying for the GOP nomination. Hand served a brief term in federal prison after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor for participating in the Jan. 6 riots on Capitol Hill. Trump has lionized the rioters as “warriors,” but many in the GOP blame the president for the unrest on that day. Hand is facing off against Wayne Johnson, a former Department of Education official in the Trump administration.
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Welcome to Evening Report! I’m Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what’s coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here. |
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Iowa survey finds surprising strength for Trump
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A new survey from the Des Moines Register finds former President Trump with an eye-popping 18-point lead over President Biden in Iowa. The survey, conducted by Ann Selzer, is seen as the gold standard in polling.
Few view Iowa as a true battleground anymore, although former President Obama won the state twice. Trump won Iowa by 9.5 points in 2016 and 8.2 points in 2020.
The worry for Democrats isn’t that Trump will win Iowa, which does not factor into Biden’s likeliest path back to the White House. Rather, the worry is that Trump’s Iowa strength is indicative of his support more broadly across the Midwest.
Selzer interviewed Iowans such as Donald Share, a 63-year-old resident of Waterloo, who plans to vote for Trump:
“His convictions on these charges are part of the reason my mind is made up. The more they try to get him out of the picture, the stronger they make him. I, for one, believe that the charges are bogus.” |
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The race for Black voters, independents and older voters
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New polling from over the weekend provided reasons for optimism and alarm for both President Biden and former President Trump.
After Trump spent the weekend courting Black voters, a new survey from USA Today-Suffolk University found Biden’s support cratering among Black voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania. -
Trump’s support only ticked up marginally, underscoring voter dissatisfaction with both candidates.
- Still, Biden badly needs to improve his standing among Black voters, who are the backbone of the Democratic coalition.
CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten had this to say about Biden’s Black support:
“I keep looking for signs that this is going to go back to normal and I don’t see it yet in the polling. If anything right now we’re careening towards historic performance for a Republican presidential candidate the likes of which we have not seen in six decades.”
Biden campaign cochair Mitch Landrieu dismissed recent polls in an interview on CNN.
“There’s no universe in which Donald Trump is going to get 21 percent of the Black vote.That’s never going to happen. And so it’s not that we’re not worried about that, but we’re fighting very, very hard for every vote.”
Trump has troubles of his own among independent voters.
A Politico/Ipsos survey found that 21 percent of independents are less likely to vote for Trump after his conviction.
The Biden campaign is leaning into that sore spot, putting $50 million behind a new ad called “Character Matters” that states Trump is a “convicted criminal who’s only out for himself.” Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reports on how older voters, historically a lock for the GOP, could swing the election toward Biden in 2024.
More coverage: |
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Schumer plans vote to ban bump stocks
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Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) will hold a vote this week on legislation to ban bump stocks after the Supreme Court invalidated the Trump-era ban last week. The Trump administration issued a rule prohibiting bump stocks after one was used in a mass shooting in the Las Vegas in 2017, the deadliest mass shooting in modern U.S. history.
Justice Samuel Alito, who has been the target of outrage among Democrats, joined the majority opinion invalidating the Trump-era rule. But he said the “simple remedy” is for Congress to pass a law banning bump stocks.
More coverage: |
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Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) name has risen toward the top of Trump’s vice presidential shortlist eight years after the two feuded bitterly in a highly personal presidential primary. The Hill’s Jared Gans takes a look back at how Rubio has since become a close and loyal ally to Trump. One potential hang-up: The 12th amendment states that presidential and vice presidential candidates cannot come from the same state, which would theoretically block Florida voters from voting for a Trump-Rubio ticket.
The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports that there are myriad loopholes and workarounds available if Trump decides to go down that road with Rubio. |
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10 days until the first presidential debate.
28 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
63 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
141 days until the 2024 general election.
217 days until Inauguration Day 2025. |
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Monday -
Former President Trump meets with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Richard Hudson (R-N.C.)
Tuesday - Congressional primaries in Oklahoma and Virginia. Run-off elections in Georgia.
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President Biden hosts a White House event to commemorate the 12th anniversary of DACA. He’ll hold a campaign event in McLean, Va., and then travel to his home in Rehoboth Beach, Del.
Wednesday |
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