President Biden’s team sought to sooth panicked Democrats on Thursday by laying out a pathway to victory, as the White House and campaign try to keep the lid on a revolt among the rank-and-file.

Biden faces a high-stakes solo press conference at 6:30 p.m. tonight that could either alleviate some Democratic anxiety or add to intraparty panic.

Democrats have been pushing Biden to do more unscripted events to prove he’s up to campaigning, which will only become more important after reports that a Milwaukee radio station edited an interview with Biden under pressure from his campaign.

Another bad performance in front of the cameras could unleash a wave of new calls for Biden to exit the race, although many lawmakers will be on airplanes traveling back to their districts for recess when he takes the stage. The New York Times reports that the three major broadcast networks will break away from scheduled programming to carry the press conference live.

Senior Biden advisers Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon, and Biden campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon, met with Senate Democrats on Capitol Hill on Thursday to detail the state of the race.

In a memo to supporters, the campaign outlined the case for riding with Biden:

• The campaign acknowledged there has been “real” movement in the polls and “increased anxiety” following the debate.
  
  
• However, an ABC News/Ipsos national poll released Thursday found the race tied, with no change since April. “Our internal data and public polling show the same thing: this remains a margin-of-error race in key battleground states.”
  
  
• The Biden campaign said that movement in the polls has not been a “sea change,” but rather is driven by historically Democratic constituencies becoming undecided. “We have a very real path to consolidating their support since they are not considering Trump as an alternative.”
  
  
• The campaign says there are “multiple pathways” to 270 electoral votes, but maintaining the “Blue Wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is the “clearest pathway.”
  
  
• The campaign said there is “no indication” another candidate would perform better than Biden because polling on hypothetical alternatives is “unreliable.”
  
  
• A replacement candidate would face their own scrutiny and negative media attention, the campaign argued. The New York Times reports the Biden campaign has quietly been polling Vice President Harris’s standing against Trump.

Takeaway: The polls have clearly moved in Trump’s favor since the debate, although perhaps not as much as the media frenzy might suggest. Trump has small leads in most of the battlegrounds, and Biden’s narrow path means he can’t afford to lose even one of Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

Trump has been campaigning heavily in Pennsylvania and will head back this weekend for a rally. Biden heads to Michigan on Friday.

Part of the worry among Democrats is that a tied national race likely means Biden falls short in the battleground states and takes many down ballot Democrats with him. 

• Biden entered the 2020 election with a 9-point national lead. He ended up winning the national vote by 4 points, but the election only swung his way by the thinnest of margins in a handful of battleground states.
  
  
• From Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “If the national popular vote were tied, we would expect Donald Trump to carry 10 additional House seats, compared to his 2020 result. If Trump won the popular vote by closer to three points, about where national polling suggests he is now, he could be positioned to flip about two-dozen previously Biden-won districts.”
  
  
• The poll the Biden campaign cited that shows the race is tied also found that a majority of Democrats want him to step aside.
  
• The Hill’s Niall Stanage has a nice recap of where the polling stands.

IT’S BEEN A CHAOTIC WEEK on Capitol Hill, and Democratic divisions remain on full display:

• Sen. Peter Welch (Vt.) became the first Democrat in the Senate to call on Biden to drop out.
  
  
• There are now a dozen House Democrats calling on Biden to step aside. Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.), who is running for reelection in a key swing district, and Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) are the latest.
  
  
• Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) told CNN’s Kasie Hunt he’s “getting closer and closer” to calling on Biden to step aside. “To be able to make the case against [Trump] … should not be that hard. Biden has to do it. If he can’t do it, then he’s gotta let somebody else do it.”
  
  
• Biden also has his defenders, such as Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.). Fetterman on Thursday ripped Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for questioning whether Biden will remain in the race.

Perspectives:

• Ezra Klein: Democrats are drifting toward the worst of all possible worlds.
• Tim Alberta: Trump is planning for a landslide win.

Related coverage:

• Biden to face heavy scrutiny at high-stakes press conference.
• Some Biden aides are privately discussing how to push him to leave the race.
• House Democratic campaign arm adds two races to battlefields map.
• Democrats are unsure Biden will pass key tests to stay the nominee.
• Democrats fret Biden problems could haunt them until the convention.