© LM Otero and Evan Vucci, Associated Press |
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Florida, Texas, Virginia coming into play as polls tighten
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The race for the White House is growing tighter in states that fall outside of the traditional battlegrounds where Vice President Harris and former President Trump are waging the majority of their campaigns. Democrats are tantalized once again by their prospects in Texas and Florida, while Republicans are energized by new polls showing a close race in Virginia. Neither presidential campaign is spending much time or resources in these states, but that could change if current trends accelerate.
All three states have competitive Senate races, giving them more importance in a year when the balance of power in the upper chamber could change hands.
The state of play in these three fringe battlegrounds: FLORIDA -
A Public Policy Polling survey (PPP) released Tuesday finds Trump narrowly ahead of Harris at 50 to 46. Trump holds a 4.7 lead over Harris in Nate Silver’s average of polls, but Harris is about 3 points closer than she was one month ago. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) won the state by nearly 20 points in 2022.
- The PPP survey finds incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) leading former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) by only 3 points.
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Democratic strategist James Carville said Tuesday on The Daily Blast podcast with Greg Sargent that Democrats will benefit from having marijuana and abortion issues on the ballot and that there’s a “near-revolt” in the state over home insurance prices: “I think the biggest under-appreciated story today is Florida is much more in play than people think.”
- There are 1 million more registered Republicans in Florida than there are Democrats, making it a steep hill to climb for Democrats running statewide.
VIRGINIA -
Trump’s enduring strength in Virginia has been lost in the stories about Harris’s overall polling momentum. Harris leads Trump by 3 points in the DDHQ/The Hill average of Virginia polls. Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020, and Hillary Clinton won it by 5 points in 2016.
- The polls have actually moved toward Harris in Virginia, as some surveys found Trump leading President Biden before he dropped out.
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Trump made a few stops Monday in Virginia, although his campaigning there was largely due to a visit to the Arlington National Cemetery to honor the soldiers who died at Abbey Gate following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan three years ago.
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Trump made remarks at a Vietnamese restaurant in Falls Church with GOP Senate candidate Hung Cao, who trails Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) by double-digits in recent polls.
- Republicans appear to be getting a boost from Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is enormously popular in Virginia.
TEXAS - The Lone Star state has long been a dream for Democrats, who believe changing demographics will eventually play to their favor.
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Three surveys taken in August placed Harris within 3 to 5 points of Trump, in some instances within the margin of error.
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Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is running weaker than Trump, with Rep. Colin Allred only 2 points behind in a recent survey.
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Republicans in the state are tired of hearing about how Texas will one day turn blue. The Lone Star State has so far been a mirage for Democrats.
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There are signs Republicans fear an embarrassing loss this cycle. The Hill’s Saul Elbein reports that the Texas GOP is doubling down on fraud claims as Trump and Cruz see their leads shrinking. Texas also removed 1 million people from the voter roles.
- Trump carried Texas by 5.6 points in 2020, the smallest margin of victory for a Republican presidential candidate in 24 years.
Perspectives: - MSNBC: Dems have a response to Trump’s vision of patriotism.
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The Hill: Only three things matter for the Harris campaign.
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The Bulwark: The case for staying nervous in the slog ahead.
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The Wall Street Journal: Who is ready for early voting next month?
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TIPP Insights: Will Trump tear down Michigan’s blue wall?
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Welcome to Evening Report! I’m Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what’s coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here. |
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Special counsel Jack Smith filed a superseding indictment in the election interference case against former President Trump.
The new indictment retains the same charges but adjusts elements of the case to account for the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling. The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch has more on this breaking news here. |
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Mexico’s proposed constitutional reforms could negatively impact business and investment with the U.S. Mexico is the U.S.’s largest trading partner, and a bipartisan Senate group is sounding the alarm about the potential for disruption.
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Israel rescued a hostage from an underground tunnel in Gaza. Officials say they’re making progress on a potential cease-fire deal but that they’re still ironing out final details.
Australians won the “right to disconnect” from work after hours.
One of the biggest rock acts of the ’90s is back. Oasis will reunite after the Gallagher brothers split 15 years ago. The band said in a statement: “The guns have fallen silent. The stars have aligned. The great wait is over. Come see. It will not be televised.”
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© Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images |
Zuckerberg reignites contentious debate over speech
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Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg wrote a letter to the House Judiciary Committee saying Facebook and Instagram were “repeatedly pressured” by the Biden administration to censor stories related to COVID-19 and the 2020 election. “I believe the government pressure was wrong, and I regret that we were not more outspoken,” he wrote to House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). “I feel strongly that we should not compromise our content standards due to pressure from any Administration in either direction — and we’re ready to push back if something like this happens again.” Zuckerberg’s remarks reopen a heated debate around free speech and government intervention that roiled the political scene during the pandemic and the 2020 election between President Biden and former President Trump. -
The Meta CEO said the Biden administration urged his companies to remove stories they didn’t like, including satirical posts.
- Zuckerberg said he “shouldn’t have demoted” stories about Hunter Biden’s laptop, which turned out to be true.
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At the time, Democrats and former intelligence officials called stories about the laptop “Russian disinformation.” The special counsel used information from the laptop against Hunter Biden in a gun trial, which resulted in three felony convictions.
- Stories about the laptop were also removed from Twitter, and users were suspended for sharing them under former CEO Jack Dorsey.
- Trump posted on his social media site Truth Social that Zuckerberg’s comments are evidence the 2020 election, which he lost to Biden, was “rigged” against him.
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Big questions as campaigns head into Labor Day weekend
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Will former President Trump and Vice President Harris debate on Sept. 10? And when will Harris speak to the press?
These are the two biggest questions hanging over the presidential race as the campaigns prepare for a post-Labor Day blitz. -
Trump said in a Truth Social post that the Sept. 10 debate with ABC News will go on after the Harris campaign agreed to drop their efforts to change the rules to ensure the microphones are always on.
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President Biden’s campaign had demanded the microphones be turned off when the other candidate is speaking to avoid interruptions during the CNN debate in June. Trump said Tuesday the rules will be the same in the ABC News debate.
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The Harris campaign has not yet publicly announced if they agreed to these terms.
Meanwhile, Harris has provoked a parlor game in Washington around who she’ll pick for her first big media interview and when it will happen. - Harris has been the presumed Democratic nominee for more than a month and has not sat for a formal interview or conducted a press conference.
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Politico reports that Harris campaign staffers have been asking reporters who they think she should talk to. TV producers and anchors are angling for the interview behind the scenes.
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Harris verbally committed to booking an interview before the end of August in a brief exchange with her traveling press corps earlier this month.
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Trump has tapped former Democrats Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard to be on his transition team if he wins the White House. Kennedy’s former running mate sees the Trump-RFK partnership as a “true coalition.”
- Harris is touting her proposal to build 3 million homes in a new campaign ad.
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Trump says he’ll build an Iron Dome-style defense system for the U.S.
Perspectives: |
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© Alex Slitz/AP/Bloomberg via Getty Images |
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Trump’s Georgia case roiled by racial politics
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Former President Trump’s legal team argued in a new court filing that Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis should be removed from the case for showing unfair “racial animus” against him.
“Willis’ intentional injection of false allegations of racism into this high-profile case is undoubtedly severe enough ‘to call in question the fair and efficient administration of justice,’” Trump’s lawyers wrote. “Willis deliberately chose to ‘play the race’ card, in a calculated effort to bring public condemnation against the accused and deflect public attention away from herself.” Trump’s team had previously sought to remove Willis, who is Black, for her romantic relationship with Nathan Wade, a Black special prosecutor who resigned from the case after their relationship went public. Earlier this year, Judge Scott McAfee told Willis to be more careful in her public statements after she said in a speech that Trump’s attorneys had targeted Wade for his race. More from the courts: |
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Democrats are increasingly bullish about their chances of taking the House with Vice President Harris at the top of the ticket.
The money is flowing in and Democrats have seen a spike in new campaign volunteers and enthusiasm across the country, The Hill’s Mike Lillis reports. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ model still has Republicans favored to hold their majority, but their odds have shrunk from a 78 percent chance to a 56 percent chance since President Biden dropped out. “No question about it: It elevates a lot of our races, it may broaden the map. Look, we’ve still got to finish it. But just looking at volunteers and small-dollar donors — those are two variables that matter, we know they are.” – Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) More from the states: -
In a key Senate race, the Arizona Police Department has endorsed Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). That’s a big blow to Republican Kari Lake (Ariz.), who won the endorsement in the gubernatorial race she lost in 2020.
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The Maryland Senate race is tied, giving Republicans another potential pick-up opportunity. Former Governor Larry Hogan (R) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) each take 46 percent in a new AARP survey.
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Colorado Republicans ousted their controversial state chairman.
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“What the freshman class needs to read,” by Niall Ferguson for The Atlantic. “A cure for childhood anxiety hiding in plain sight,” by Kevin Stinehart for After Babel. |
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14 days until the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump. 24 days until early in-person voting begins in Minnesota and South Dakota. 35 days until the vice presidential debate between Vance and Walz.
70 days until the 2024 general election.
146 days until Inauguration Day 2025. |
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Tuesday - Biden is on vacation in Rehoboth Beach, Del.
Wednesday - Harris and Walz launch a bus tour across Georgia.
- Vance campaigns in De Pere, Wisc.
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