The war in Gaza hangs heavily over Vice President Harris’s presidential campaign and could play a role in the key swing state of Michigan, which has a large Arab American population.
Pro-Palestinian liberals had hoped they’d have a stronger ally in Harris, but she’s signaled she’ll remain in lockstep with President Biden on key issues surrounding the conflict, such as supplying arms to Israel.
That could cause problems for Harris as campus protest season gets underway.
The Hill’s Alex Gangitano captures the dynamic here:
“Activists who initially expressed some optimism about Harris are ready to treat her candidacy the same as Biden’s — with protests at campaign stops and, for some, efforts to get progressives to vote against her in November.”
Election analyst Nate Silver, whose model currently gives former President Trump a 56 percent chance of winning the White House, said Harris trails in his model due to new polls that show a tightening race in Michigan.
Over the past week, the polls in Michigan have moved more than 1 point in Trump’s favor, according to Silver’s forecast.
If Trump cracks through in one of the three “Blue Wall” states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — his odds of winning improve dramatically.
“In addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan has become something of an issue for Harris. National polls and polls of other swing states mostly decent for Harris, but erosion in PA/MI hurts a lot in the model.” –Silver
Trump has gone hard after the Biden-Harris administration following Hamas’s execution of six hostages, including Hersh Goldberg-Polin, an Israeli American citizen.
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The Biden administration has been seeking a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas for months but has been unable to close the deal.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Thursday that a deal is “not close.”
Just as worrying for Democrats: The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports that Harris is running behind in the polls compared to where President Biden and Hillary Clinton were positioned at this point in their races against Trump.
The tight race underscores the importance of next week’s debate for both candidates.
ABC News released the rules of the debate, and the microphones will be shut off for the candidate who is not speaking. The Harris campaign had sought to change the rules to allow the candidates to interrupt one another.
Of course, Trump is also unhappy with ABC News, saying in a town hall event with Sean Hannity on Wednesday night that he believes the network is biased against him.
- Trump said second gentleman Douglas Emhoff is close friends with the husband of an executive at Disney, which owns ABC.
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Deadline confirmed the longstanding friendship between the families.
- However, ABC has said the news division will have full control over the content of the debate without executive interference.
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“All editorial decisions are in the hands of ABC News management and the seasoned journalists and producers of ABC, who hold themselves to the highest journalistic standards,” the network said in a statement to The New York Times last month.
Perspectives:
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Brookings: Is Harris really leading Trump in the polls?
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The Hill: 4 possible outcomes of the Trump vs. Harris debate.
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City Journal: Kennedy dropping out helps Trump.
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CNN: Harris separating herself from Biden on the economy frustrates Trump.
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The Hill: Coattails can also have a negative effect.
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