© Illustration / Courtney Jones; Julia Nikhinson Alex Brandon, Associated Press; and Adobe Stock |
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Former President Trump is getting a little bump in the polls ahead of Tuesday’s debate with Vice President Harris.
Harris’s rise has reenergized disaffected Democrats since President Biden dropped out, making a competitive race out of what once looked like a potential landslide victory for Trump.
But Democratic hopes that Harris would run away with the race after the convention have vanished, as a new reality sets in. Trump appears to have weathered Harris’s splashy entrance into the race, provoking fresh concerns among Democrats about Trump’s resilience and Harris’s strategy. The stakes could not be higher for both candidates heading into Tuesday, which is likely to be the only time they debate.
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Harris leads Trump by 3.3 points nationally, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling index. That’s down from a lead of 4.1 points on Aug. 21.
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The New York Times-Siena College poll released over the weekend found Trump with a 1-point lead nationally. That’s within the margin of error, but it’s a bad poll for Democrats and confirms several weeks worth of erosion for Harris. Trump has a 46 percent approval rating in the poll, which is higher than he had for either of his past two presidential bids. The final New York Times-Siena College poll of 2020 found Biden leading Trump by 9 points nationally. Biden ended up winning the popular vote by about 4.5 points, but he only won the Electoral College by several thousands of votes in a handful of states.
- The latest Pew Research survey finds Trump and Harris tied nationally, with Trump getting almost 40 percent of the Latino vote. Harris leads big among young voters and the highly educated.
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According to Nate Silver’s election model, Trump has a 61 percent chance of victory. The polling average in every swing-state in Silver’s model has moved toward Trump over the past 7 days. Harris grabbed an early lead over Trump in that model on Aug. 5, only two weeks after Biden dropped out.
- The latest CBS News-YouGov poll of the Blue Wall states finds the race is effectively tied in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
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Trump has closed the gap with Harris in Pennsylvania, which election analysts see as the tipping point state for both campaigns. In Silver’s model, Harris leads by 0.3 points in the Keystone State. Trump has gained about a point on her over the past month.
Harris has benefitted in the past six weeks from a near-flawless rollout and glowing media profiles, including countless stories about her rise in the polls in comparison to Biden.
But the New York Times-Siena College poll found that Harris remains largely undefined — and too liberal — in the eyes of many voters. -
Nearly one-third of voters said they need to know more about Harris. Nearly half of voters said Harris is too liberal, while Trump was seen as more of a centrist. More than half of voters said Harris is partly responsible for the border. More than half of voters said Harris is too “risky” a choice and represents “more of the same.”
Those data points have raised questions about Harris’s media strategy, and whether her reluctance to do interviews and press conferences is leaving a void that Republicans can fill. -
Harris’s campaign released a policy page on Monday.
- Her team has largely tacked to the center by having anonymous aides leak her new policy positions to reporters, rather than addressing them herself. Harris’s aides and surrogates get asked about her press strategy in almost every interview.
From Silver: “This strategy may have worked well enough when she was riding high off the vibes of the Democrats’ candidate swap, but it’s causing her more problems now.”
🔖BOOKMARK TO WATCH DEBATE: The Hill
The Hill’s YouTube
Perspectives:
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Welcome to Evening Report! I’m Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what’s coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here. |
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© Tierney L. Cross, Bloomberg via Getty Images |
Government funding fight takes shape as shutdown looms |
Congress has three weeks to pass a government funding bill to avoid an election-year shutdown.
Lawmakers returned to Washington on Monday following a six-week recess. They face a Sept. 30 deadline to fund the government. The GOP-controlled House and Democratic-controlled Senate are preparing to clash over whether to include a provision in the government funding bill that would require voters to show proof-of-citizenship at the polls. 💵 STATE OF PLAY: -
House Republicans will roll with a six-month continuing resolution (CR) that would fund the government until March 2025.
- Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) intends to attach the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act to the stopgap bill. The SAVE Act would require voters to provide proof-of-citizenship at the polls.
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The SAVE Act is a nonstarter in the Senate, and there are questions abut whether Johnson’s proposed CR can pass the House.
- Democrats, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), are pushing for a shorter CR that funds the government through November or December, kicking the issue past the election for the lame-duck Congress and White House to handle.
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The White House said Monday that President Biden would veto the bill if it hit his desk, while accusing Republicans of “brinkmanship.” The Biden administration said the GOP proposal fails to provide “necessary resources” for defense programs and would enact “across-the-board cuts to programs Americans count on.”
- Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin sent letters to top House and Senate appropriations leaders saying the CR would impose a “litany of difficulties” on the military.
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Speaker Johnson can afford to lose up to four Republicans for the CR to pass along partisan lines. Two conservative Republicans have already said they’ll oppose it.
- Five swing-district Democrats voted for the SAVE Act when it was brought to the floor as a standalone bill in July. It passed the House 221-198, with all Republicans backing it.
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Republicans believe they can pressure moderate Democrats to support the bill, with Pew Research finding that 81 percent of voters believe citizens should be required to show government identification to vote.
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Jeffries is urging Democrats to vote against the CR, calling it “partisan and extreme.” He supports a short-term solution that does not include the SAVE Act.
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© Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via AP, File |
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The latest on everything from Washington and beyond…
Will the anti-Trump Republicans backing Vice President Harris swing the election? Former Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) are the latest to join the small but vocal crowd of Republicans for Harris. It’s an odd alliance, as many Democrats spent the Bush years calling Dick Cheney a war criminal. Liz Cheney is making the rounds, urging Republicans who oppose Trump to vote for Harris. Trump and his allies are blasting back. Former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley says her support for Trump is based on his policies. Former Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard, who now backs Trump, said she’s “sickened” by the Cheneys. Former President Bush won’t endorse anyone for president in 2024.
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The Harris campaign released a new ad targeting Trump on abortion and another one featuring the words of Trump’s own former employees warning that he’s a threat.
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Politico reports that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) will attend a Congressional Medal ceremony Tuesday for the 13 service members who died at the bombing near the Kabul airport in 2021. It’s a sensitive political matter for Democrats, as some of the Gold Star families have criticized President Biden and Harris for their handling of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. House Republicans released a new report accusing the Biden administration of being ill-prepared for the withdrawal.
- Biden is charting the course for his final months in office, The Hill’s Brett Samuels reports. The president will be traveling and ramping up his public appearances after a long summer vacation.
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Michigan’s top court has ruled that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. must remain on the ballot in the critical swing-state.
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The commissioner of the New York Police Department will resign amid a federal corruption probe.
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The first presidential debate is tomorrow night. (Here’s how to watch)
22 days until the vice presidential debate between Vance and Walz. 57 days until the 2024 general election.
133 days until Inauguration Day 2025.
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Tuesday -
Harris and Trump debate in Philadelphia at 9 p.m. on ABC.
- Primary elections in Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island.
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