© Illustration / Courtney Jones; Greg Nash; Alex Brandon, Associated Press; and Adobe Stock |
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Where things stand a month out from the election
| It’s the final stretch.
With only one month left until the election, every moment matters for former President Trump and Vice President Harris.
The race has been virtually neck and neck nationally and in the battlegrounds since shortly after Harris became the Democratic nominee following President Biden‘s exit from the race in late July.
Here’s where the candidates stand one month out from Election Day, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index:
- Nationally: Harris, 53; Trump, 47
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Arizona: Trump +0.8
- Georgia: Trump +0.7
Michigan: Harris +0.2 - Nevada: Harris +2
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North Carolina: Trump +0.8
- PA: Harris +0.8
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WI: Harris +1.3
Any dips or boosts in support in the battlegrounds or major “October surprises” — think: “Access Hollywood” in 2016 or former President Obama meeting with then-Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) after Hurricane Sandy in 2012 — could shake up the race in the final four weeks.
HARRIS -
Harris, the second woman to face Trump in a general election, has largely shied away from the fact that, if elected, she would be the first female president of the United States. Hindsight is 20/20, and Harris’s campaign is looking to avoid the same strategy as Hillary Clinton during her unsuccessful run against Trump in 2016.
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Harris has mostly painted herself as the antithesis of Trump and has worked to hold her base together while trying to pick off support from disaffected Republican voters.
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She’s faced some vocal skepticism from Arab Americans and has focused ads toward other groups where she’s struggling (i.e.: Latino voters) as well as those who may still be undecided.
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Harris and Trump are hyper-focused on the Midwest, and critically the vice president will need to defend the “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to pave a path to victory, though she has expanded the battlegrounds to include Georgia and North Carolina.
- Polls have shown Harris recently gaining some ground on who voters trust to handle the economy and immigration, issues Trump has long held a clear lead.
TRUMP -
While Trump’s strategy in the home stretch is largely unchanged, his campaign is notably trying to soften the former president’s image on the issue of abortion. Former first lady Melania Trump coming out in favor of abortion rights seeks to neutralize attacks from Democrats warning Trump will go further on the issue now that Roe v. Wade is overturned.
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While Trump generally polls better when it comes to the economy and immigration, he fares worse than Harris when it comes to bringing the country together and how people view his character. Former pro-Trump aides and allies lining up behind Harris’s bid adds fuel to those attacks.
- Trump has sought to go on the offensive himself to try to drive a wedge between Jewish voters and Democratic leaders, including Harris. And he used Iran’s attack on Israel this week to criticize the Biden-Harris administration’s Middle East policy.
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If elected, Trump would be on track to become the oldest president in U.S. history. He has long boasted of his mental health and agility, an issue that took on outsized importance this year preceding Biden’s exit from the race.
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Trump’s actions related to the Jan. 6 insurrection have become a major talking point again, especially with special counsel Jack Smith’s latest filing regarding Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Trump has railed against any legal efforts concerning the Capitol attack, and attorney Alina Habba said she expects an “onslaught of litigation” in the weeks leading up to the election. Still, it’s unclear how much Jan. 6 will affect the election, with the bigger focus on the economy and inflation.
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Welcome to Evening Report! I’m Emily Martin, catching you up from the afternoon and what’s coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here. |
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NYC Mayor Eric Adams’s future hangs in the balance as legal woes threaten to mount. A Marist poll released Friday found 7 in 10 New Yorkers think Adams should resign.
The Supreme Court declined Friday to block limits set by the Biden administration on planet-warming methane from oil and gas production and toxic pollution from coal plants.
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In an interview with The Telegraph ahead of the release of his new book, former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggested Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu bugged Johnson’s bathroom in 2017.
President Biden’s student loan cancellation plan has once again been put on hold. A federal judge in Missouri issued an injunction Thursday that blocked the plan, coming only hours after Biden got a favorable ruling in Georgia.
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Former President Trump on Saturday will return to the site of the July assassination attempt against him in Butler, Pa., for a rally, one that is likely to be emotionally charged. The shooter grazed Trump’s ear with a bullet, but the former president was otherwise uninjured. One rallygoer was killed and two others were injured. The former president told NewsNation this week he felt he had an “obligation” to return to the site, saying, “we never finished what we were supposed to do. And I said that I said that day when I was shot, I said, we’re coming back. We’re going to come back.”
Trump’s campaign is seeking to paint the rally as a “triumphant return,” as The Hill’s Brett Samuels writes. They also want to honor the victims and bystanders from the July 13 shooting. Expected attendees/honorees: -
Family members of Corey Comperatore, the rallygoer who was killed.
- Jim Sweetland and Ed Shear, rallygoers who provided first aid after the shooting.
- David Dutch, who was injured in the gunfire.
- Tesla and X owner Elon Musk, who has endorsed Trump.
- Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), Trump’s running mate.
- Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), who provided medical care for Trump after he was wounded.
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Several local sheriffs and officials.
Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law and co-chair of the Republican National Committee, told Fox News that “What you’re going to see in Butler, Pa., tomorrow is the kind of strength and leadership that we are desperate for back in that White House. I think it’s going to be an emotional rally.” Lara Trump and her husband Eric Trump will both be in attendance.
Since the July shooting, Trump’s rallies have had tighter security measures, such as having him stand behind panes of bulletproof glass at events. The Secret Service, which came under intense scrutiny after the shooting, has said Trump is receiving “heightened” protection.
Local officials say the rally will have tight security, with 15,000-60,000 people expected to be in attendance, according to CBS News. All area hotels are completely booked.
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FEMA funding and fighting falsehoods
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It’s been one week since Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane before moving up into the Southeast United States.
The White House announced Friday that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has given $45 million in upfront funding to help the affected states with recovery. More than $17 million was allocated to North Carolina. The destruction has been extensive and is expected to extend far beyond the immediate damage: -
More than 200 people are dead and hundreds are missing, making it the deadliest hurricane since Katrina in 2005.
- Catastrophic destruction of homes, infrastructure and entire towns.
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Power outages, mudslides and limited access to clean water.
Because the hurricane hit just a month before the election, North Carolina’s election officials are concerned about early voting in the Tarheel State, which begins in two weeks.
“Early voting is supposed to start in two weeks. I don’t see any way that happens in most of these counties up in the mountains,” reporter Bob Buckley from NewsNation affiliate WGHP said on NewsNation’s Swing State Spotlight segment on The Hill. FEMA officials are also concerned with the spread of misinformation regarding the recovery efforts and have launched a “rumor response” page to clarify any falsehoods. North Carolina state Sen. Kevin Corbin (R) denounced these claims, which he described as “conspiracy theory junk.”
“PLEASE help stop this junk. It is just a distraction to people trying to do their job. Folks, this is a catastrophic event of which this country has never known,” Corbin wrote Thursday in post on Facebook. Former President Trump, criticizing the administration’s response effort, falsely claimed at a rally Thursday that all disaster relief funding was spent on migrants.
“There’s nobody that’s handled a hurricane or storm worse than what they’re doing right now,” Trump said. “Kamala spent all her FEMA money, billions of dollars, on housing for illegal migrants. Many of whom should not be in our country.” Trump traveled to Georgia on Friday and toured damaged areas with Gov. Brian Kemp (R) before they were expected to deliver remarks. Vice President Harris plans to visit North Carolina over the weekend.
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US’s stellar September jobs report |
The U.S. added 245,000 jobs in September, according to Labor Department data Friday, far surpassing economists expectations of 140,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was slightly lower than expected at 4.1 percent, with economists originally predicting 4.2 percent.
President Biden in his first briefing room appearance as president, lauded the report as “good news for American workers and families.”
“With today’s report, we’ve created 16 million jobs, unemployment remains low, and wages are growing faster than prices,” the president said in a statement. “Under my Administration, unemployment has been the lowest in 50 years, a record 19 million new businesses have been created, and inflation and interest rates are falling.”
The September jobs report comes just one month out from the 2024 presidential election. While former President Trump has led Vice President Harris on whom voters trust more when it comes to the economy, the Democratic nominee is closing the gap: - In a Marist College poll of American adults, Harris trailed Trump by 3 percentage points on the economy.
- When Biden was the nominee, he trailed Trump by 9 points in the same poll conducted in June.
Read more here. |
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Campaign: In a sign of momentum for the Democratic Party in the Midwest, nonpartisan group Cook Political Report has shifted five House races toward the left in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Montana.
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North Carolina: North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein (D) has a nearly 20-point lead over Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) in the state’s gubernatorial race, according to a new survey.
- California: Two dairy workers in California have been diagnosed with bird flu, the first two human cases in the state, according to federal and state health officials.
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New York: Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is facing backlash over resurfaced photos of him wearing blackface on Halloween nearly 20 years ago.
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Florida: In the Florida Senate race, former President Obama endorsed Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) over Sen. Rick Scott (R). “This is your chance, Florida. Elect a woman who will make your life better and fight for freedoms like the right to choose,” Obama said in a video released exclusively to The Hill.
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Nevada: Michele Fiore (R), a former Nevada gubernatorial candidate was convicted on federal wire fraud charges Thursday for using donations meant for a statue of a late Las Vegas police officer for her personal benefit. The charges included six counts of wire fraud and one count of conspiracy.
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Here’s who’s coming up on the Sunday shows: NewsNation’s “The Hill Sunday”: Former national security adviser and United Nations ambassador John Bolton; Wisconsin GOP Senate candidate Eric Hovde; Harris campaign surrogate Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.); Kori Schake of the American Enterprise Institute
FOX’s “Fox News Sunday”: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.); Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa); Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.).
ABC’s “This Week”: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.)
CNN’s “State of the Union”: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.); Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump; Maryland Senate candidate and former Gov. Larry Hogan (R)
CBS’s “Face the Nation”: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.); Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio).
MSNBC’s “Inside with Jen Psaki”: Former Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn
MSNBC’s “PoliticsNation”: Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) – Compiled by Elizabeth Crisp. |
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32 days until the 2024 general election.
108 days until Inauguration Day 2025. |
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Saturday: Trump returns to Butler, Pa., the site of his first assassination attempt, for a rally. |
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