Vice President Harris’s campaign is rushing to address potential problem spots with key demographic groups that Democrats worry are drifting to the right with less than one month to go before Election Day.
Democrats are particularly concerned about Harris’s support among men, Latinos and white working class voters, as polls show former President Trump running even with Harris in the “Blue Wall” states that represent Harris’s likeliest path to the White House.
Democratic anxieties about Harris have spiked in recent weeks, as Harris has registered mediocre polling numbers and sat for some uneven media appearances.
Nate Silver’s forecast shows polling averages have ticked toward Trump ever so slightly over the past week, with the former president making small gains nationally and in every swing state with the exception of Georgia.
That shift is mostly around the margins and the underlying fundamentals of the race remain largely the same. The race is a tossup, and every battleground could fall in either direction.
CNN election analyst Harry Enten addressed the recent bout of Democratic “bedwetting”:
“The race is closer than it was 3 weeks ago in MI, PA, & WI. Way too close to call in all 3. Also, Harris is doing 6 points worse on avg. in them than Biden at this point in 2020.”
Here’s how Harris’s campaign is approaching some key demographic groups…
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Former President Obama made his big return to the campaign trail with a rally in Pennsylvania on Thursday. He had stern remarks for what he described as a lack of enthusiasm for Harris among Black men.
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“We have not yet seen the same kind of energy and turnout in all corners of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running… that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers…You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses. I’ve got a problem with that,” Obama said. “Part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that.”
- Harris will appear on Charlamagne Tha God’s show next week, which is popular with Black men.
- Obama will travel to Arizona and Nevada to encourage early voting.
A lot has been made about the gender gap and Harris’s big advantage among women. But Democrats are growingly increasingly concerned that Trump will more than make up for that gap with his advantage among men.
Via The Hill’s Amie Parnes: “Obama’s clarion call to his party gave breath to the nervousness Democrats have been feeling in recent days. If the party doesn’t figure out a way to close that gender gap with Trump among men, and if it cannot convince men of color to come out in droves for Harris, Trump will win reelection to another four years in office.”
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Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), is launching a media blitz this weekend with a focus on appealing to men.
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Walz appeared Friday morning on “Good Morning America” with host and Super Bowl champion Michael Strahan.
- The Democratic VP nominee will return to Mankato West High School in Minnesota, where he was a teacher and football coach.
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Walz will attend a political event focused on Black male voters in Michigan.
- He’ll mark the opening of pheasant hunting season by joining a group of online influencers for an early morning hunt in Sleepy Eye, Minn.
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Trump next week will sit for a Fox News town hall on women’s issues.
Trump is also running stronger than expected among Latino voters, and Latino men in particular.
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At a Univision town hall in Las Vegas on Thursday night, Harris made her pitch on immigration, the economy and reproductive rights to viewers on the American Spanish-language network.
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The latest NBC News, Telemundo and CNBC poll found Harris with a 14 point lead among Latinos. Biden won Latinos by 36 points over Trump in 2020. A new Associated Press-NORC Center poll finds Latino women view Harris more positively than Latino men.
Here’s the latest average of polls from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ in the “Blue Wall” states:
MI: Trump +0.8
PA: Harris +0.6
WI: Trump +0.1
Democrats are concerned that Green Party candidate Jill Stein will draw votes away from Harris in these key battlegrounds.
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A new ad airing in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania warns that a “a vote for Stein is really a vote for Trump.”
Perspectives:
CNN: Obama tries to close the deal for Harris.
The Hill: Harris is the choice for traditional conservatives.
The Wall Street Journal: Emperor Kamala’s new clothes.
The Hill: Walz is right, scrap the Electoral College.
The Weekly Dish: Trump is winning and Harris’s media blitz didn’t help.
The Hill: Trump’s ‘revival’ in Butler could be what seals his victory.
The Hill: 2024 is the first podcast election.
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