©  AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Voting is underway in Georgia and North Carolina, two pivotal southeastern battlegrounds that will play an outsized role in determining who wins the White House.

• Georgia is seeing incredible early returns, with more than 600,000 people having already cast ballots.
  
  
• Georgia election official Gabriel Sterling said on X that votes are coming in at a “record setting pace.”

Voting got underway Thursday in North Carolina under the shadow of Hurricane Helene.

• There are concerns that the humanitarian crisis in the western part of the state may dampen turnout. Dozens are still missing, and search-and-rescue operations continue. Some residents have been without power, water, internet and cell service for weeks.
  
  
• The Hill’s Lauren Irwin reports: Only four of the 80 sites in western North Carolina hit hardest by the flooding will not be open.

The polls are tight in both states, which have traditionally been conservative-leaning but have become more competitive for Democrats in recent elections.

• In 2020, President Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win in Georgia since 1992. He squeaked out a victory by 0.2 points.
  
  
• Former President Obama carried North Carolina in 2008, but he’s the only Democratic presidential candidate to win there in the past 44 years. Trump carried the state by only 1.3 points in 2020.

Here’s where the polling averages stand, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ:

GA: Trump +1.9

NC: Trump +1.0

While voters cast ballots down south, Trump and Vice President Harris are waging a majority of their campaigns in the northern “Blue Wall” states.

• Harris is campaigning Thursday across Wisconsin. She’ll return to Michigan on Friday and Saturday. The Harris campaign will dispatch Obama to Michigan and Wisconsin next week. 
  
  
• Trump will hold a rally Friday in Detroit before campaigning in Pennsylvania on Saturday.
  

Many Democrats can’t shake the feeling that the race is shifting against Harris, whose likeliest path to the White House would involve a sweep of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Via The Hill’s Amie Parnes: “In recent weeks, some Democrats who have been watching the ever-so-slight changes in the polling have grown concerned that the election could go sideways for them.”

Here are the latest averages in the “Blue Wall” states:

MI: Trump +0.7

PA: Harris +0.3

WI: Trump +0.5

Election analyst Nate Silver, whose model gives Trump and Harris each a 50 percent chance of winning, described the political terrain like this:

“Harris probably faces a tougher environment than Clinton ’16 or Biden ’20. Incumbent parties around the world are struggling, cultural pendulum swinging conservative, inflation and immigration are big deals to voters, plus Biden…should have quit sooner.”

Harris’s campaign is taking some big swings, most notably having her sit with Fox News for a contentious interview with anchor Bret Baier. 

• Political watchers were split on the outcome. More than 7 million people tuned in to watch Harris explain her views on immigration, Biden’s fitness for office, and past left-wing positions she took while a candidate for president in 2020.

Trump, meanwhile, has offered up plenty of fodder for the Harris campaign over the past 24 hours.

• At a town hall event Wednesday night with Univision night, Trump stood by his claims about Haitian migrants eating pets, and he called Jan. 6 a “day of love.”

💡 Perspectives:

The Liberal Patriot: Another stalemate election.

MSNBC: Welcome to the uncanny valley of the 2024 election.

The Nation: Harris needs more Obama, less Cheney.

The Wall Street Journal: This former Dem stumped for Trump at Coachella.

Vox: Harris ceded the immigration argument to Fox News.

The Hill: Young black men could swing election to Trump.

The Hill: Harris must stay strong on Biden-era corporate enforcement.

Intelligencer: Whitmer’s Doritos ‘communion’ shows dangers of being too online.

Read more:

• 5 takeaways from a contentious Bret Baier, Harris interview.

• 5 takeaways from Trump’s Univision town hall. 

• GOP cringes over Trump’s vow to wield military against opponents.

• Judge rejects controversial rules changes from Georgia board.

Welcome to Evening Report! I’m Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what’s coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here.

• Former President Trump has taken a slight lead over Vice President Harris in Nate Silver’s election model, only weeks before Election Day. Trump leads Harris 50.2 percent to 49.5 percent.
  
  

• An independent review of the July 13 assassination attempt against former President Trump revealed “deep flaws” in the Secret Service and called for new leadership.

  
  
• The Biden administration will forgive $4.5 billion in student loans carried by public service workers. 
  
  

• The Pentagon confirmed reports of “unauthorized” drone flights last year in restricted airspace over a Virginia base that houses the nation’s most advanced fighter jets.
  
  

• Big Tech is turning to nuclear energy to keep up with the vast energy demands of artificial intelligence.
  
  

• An IV shortage is creating havoc for hospitals and exposing new supply chain issues.

©  Ben Allan Smith/The Missoulian/via AP

Democrats in the House and Senate are out-raising their GOP counterparts, even as The Hill/Decision Desk HQ election model gives Republicans a slight advantage in the battle over the control of Congress.

The Hill’s Jared Gans crunched the numbers:

• In the Senate: “In all of the nine states that Democrats and Republicans are focusing on in the Senate map, the Democratic candidate took in millions more during the quarter than their GOP opponent.”
  
  
• In the House: “Of the 16 House races that the forecast model from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ currently rates as tossups, the Democratic candidate raised more than their Republican opponent in all but one.”

The latest odds: The GOP has a 72 percent chance of winning the Senate, and the House is a coin flip, with Republicans having a 53 percent chance of winning.

Democrats are hopeful their Senate incumbents can pull upsets in red states, such as Montana and Ohio, which would give them the potential to enter the next Congress with a 50-50 split in the upper chamber.

But that looks like a steep climb, particularly as polls move against Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.). However, Tester will be well-funded for the final push: He raised an astonishing $30 million last quarter, against $17 million for Republican Tim Sheehy.

Democratic incumbents are locked in tight battles but appear to be holding their own in battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, raising the prospect of ticket-splitting in states that former President Trump might win.

We’re keeping a close eye on Nebraska for signs of an upset, as Sen. Deb Fischer (R) tries to hold off a challenge from independent candidate Dan Osborn. A Nebraska loss would be a massive blow to the GOP’s efforts to reclaim a majority in the Senate.

• Trump is helping to pull Fischer across the finish line. He cut a new ad for her campaign, in which he described Osborn as a “radical left person” and a “Bernie Sanders-type Democrat.”
  
  
• The Hill’s Al Weaver got a glimpse into Fischer’s internal polling, which shows her leading by 6 points.

Democrats are hoping there’s no October surprise in Arizona, where Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) has built a big polling lead over Republican Kari Lake.

• The conservative news outlet Washington Free Beacon won a lawsuit this week to unseal Gallego’s divorce filing ahead of the election.

Read more:

• McConnell privately slammed Trump as ‘stupid’ and ‘despicable’ after 2020 election.
• GOP senator: House GOP whip ‘surrendering’ before year-end spending battle
• Judge rejects controversial rules changes from Georgia board.

©  Sergio Flores, Yousef Masoud and Ting Shen, Getty Images

President Biden is traveling to Berlin on Thursday to huddle with European leaders about wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Biden will participate in a summit of the European Quad — Germany, France and the United Kingdom — about efforts to assists Ukraine in the war against Russia, as well as mitigating exploding tensions across the Middle East.

It was an eventful day on both fronts:

• Israel killed Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader behind the Oct. 7 terrorist attack, during a military strike in Gaza. Sinwar had been hiding in Hamas’s underground network of tunnels for more than a year.
  
  
• Washington is grappling with new questions about what Sinwar’s death means for the war in Gaza and the hostages that remain in Hamas’s custody.
  
  
• The Hill’s Laura Kelly reports the U.S. and Israel are sending split signals in the wake of Sinwar’s death.
  
  
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “the war is not over yet,” while urging Hamas to release the remaining hostages.
  
  
• “This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza,” Vice President Harris said. 
  
  
• Speaker Mike Johnson (R-la.) called Sinwar “the embodiment of evil.”
  
  
• Senate Intelligence Committee chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.) said “justice has been served.”
  
  
• The U.S. conducted multiple air strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, in a major escalation and a warning to Iran.

It’s also a pivotal moment in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

• The U.S. unveiled new sanctions on Russia tied to drone attacks in Ukraine.
  
  
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed his “victory plan.”
  
  
• The Hill’s Ellen Mitchell explains: “Zelensky outlined five major points that focus on building up the country’s defense capacity to deter Russian aggression. Ukraine also will seek to integrate economic and military connections to Europe and the U.S. as a way to more deeply tie the fates of those governments together as a defense against Russia.”
  
  
• Former President Trump lashed out at Zelensky, saying on the PDB podcast that the Ukrainian leader “should never have let that war start.”
  
  

💡 Perspectives:

The Hill: The U.S. has options to stay out of an Israel-Iran conflict.

The Hill: Biden is handcuffing our allies.

Read More:

• U.S. intel works to assess who may succeed Anwar.
• Moldova becomes ‘testing ground’ for Russian election interference.

“Shoplifters gone wild,” by Marc Fisher for The Atlantic. 

“The false promise of a device based education,” by Amy Tyson for After Babel. 

“Free speech is under attack and the nation’s leaders are adding fuel to the fire,” by Jeffrey M. McCall for The Hill.

18 days until Election Day.

95 days until Inauguration Day 2025.

Thursday

• Harris makes two stops in La Crosse and Green Bay, Wis., this evening.
• Trump attends the Al Smith dinner in New York City.

Friday

• Trump holds a campaign rally in Detroit.
• Harris has stops planned in Grand Rapids and Oakland County, Mich.

There a story you think should be getting more attention? Something people should be talking about? Drop me a line: jeasley@digital-staging.thehill.com

You’re all caught up! Stay with TheHill.com for the latest and recommend this newsletter to others: TheHill.com/Evening. See you tomorrow.