Democrats are leaning heavily on abortion, though some Republicans are also investing in abortion messaging ahead of the Nov. 7 elections. Virginia’s off-year legislative elections will be watched closely by the rest of the country and could be a bellwether for the larger 2024 cycle.
Democrats in the state see abortion as a winning issue for their party, especially after state Sen. Aaron Rouse (D) earlier this year flipped a seat in a special election after campaigning on reproductive rights.
“The reason we believe that seat flipped for us is because of the messaging on women’s reproductive rights,” fellow Democratic Virginia state Sen. Mamie Locke, chairwoman of the Virginia Senate Democratic Caucus, said of Rouse’s victory.
Abortion is permitted in Virginia through the second trimester, making it more easily accessible than many of its neighboring states, which have enacted stricter limits since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. It is the only southern state without strict abortion limits.
Since the Supreme Court’s decision last year, abortion has proven to be a losing issue for Republicans at the polls. Even GOP primary presidential candidates have been reluctant to discuss the issue at length so far.
However, Virginia’s GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin backs a 15-week ban, and Republicans inside and outside of Virginia say they’re ready to confront the issue head-on.
“If you ask about the 15-week ban, most of the polls I see, it’s relatively even,” said veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth. “For the Republicans, what’s interesting is, does the 15-week ban … does this work? Or does the fact that Republicans have pushed far more stringent bans in many states make their claim suspect?”
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