The Hill’s Morning Report — Biden: ‘No possibility’ of Putin winning the war

by Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch - 07/14/23 6:38 AM ET

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President Biden wrapped up his whirlwind visit to Europe in Finland on Thursday, where he touted the strength of the NATO alliance and its ability to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin, even as the diplomatic breakthroughs overseas came with lingering uncertainties about the future of the war.

In a joint press conference in Helsinki with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, Biden insisted there is “no possibility” of Putin winning. When asked whether his assurance that Ukraine will be able to join the NATO alliance once its war with Russia ends might encourage Putin to drag out the conflict, Biden noted no country can join NATO while in the middle of a war, because it would drag the entire alliance into conflict — a point the administration has been stressing this week as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the alliance’s resistance to fast-tracking its membership (The Hill and Politico EU).

“The issue of whether or not this is going to keep Putin from continuing to fight, the answer is Putin’s already lost the war,” Biden said. “Putin has a real problem. How does he move from here? What does he do?”

Biden added the United States’s continued commitment to NATO is “the best bet anyone can make” as world leaders harbor concerns that a future U.S. administration may attempt to withdraw from the alliance. The president visited Finland in a show of support for the country after it joined the NATO alliance in April.

Biden has throughout his presidency sought to reassure allies that the U.S. is a reliable partner on the world stage after four tumultuous years under the Trump administration. Then-President Trump at times suggested the U.S. would leave the alliance as he complained that other members were not contributing enough to defense spending (The Hill).

The Washington Post: Zelensky’s angry tweet on NATO membership nearly backfired.
Time magazine: Biden promised more aid to Ukraine. Congress may not fund it.
Reuters: Ukraine receives cluster munitions, pledges limited use.

Meanwhile in Moscow, the aftereffects of the dramatic and short-lived Wagner Group mutiny — whose boss, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, had publicly and vociferously criticized Russia’s Defense Ministry and top ministers in recent months — are still being felt. 

A top general leading forces in occupied southern Ukraine said he was abruptly removed from his post after criticizing the military. Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, active in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, recorded an appeal to servicemen that was published late Wednesday on the Telegram channel of Andrei Gurulev, a deputy in the lower house of parliament. Popov said in the recording that he was dismissed “one day” after he “outlined all the problems existing in the army in terms of combat work and support” and expressed this criticism to figures “at the very top” (The Washington Post and Reuters).

In addition to Popov’s dismissal, in the nearly three weeks since the short-lived mutiny, a different top general has disappeared from public view and one has been killed in a Ukrainian airstrike. The turmoil has engulfed the leadership ranks of the Russian military, posing new distractions and risks for Moscow’s forces as they try to fend off a Ukrainian counteroffensive (The New York Times). At least 13 senior Russian officers have been detained for questioning in the days since the insurrection, with some later released, and around 15 have been suspended from duty or fired (The Wall Street Journal).

Putin told a Russian newspaper late Thursday that the Wagner Group “simply doesn’t exist” as a legal entity, adding to the series of often bizarre twists that have followed the group’s near-revolt last month — posing the most serious threat to Putin’s 23-year rule. The Russian president also recounted his meeting with Prigozhin, where he said the group rejected an offer to keep its troops in Ukraine. He previously said that Wagner troops had to choose whether to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, move to neighboring Belarus or retire from service. While the fate of Prigozhin and the terms of the agreement remain cloudy, Russia’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that Wagner was completing the handover of its weapons to the military.

According to Putin, although “many nodded” when he made his proposal, Prigozhin rejected the idea, responding that “the boys won’t agree with such a decision” (The Associated Press).

The Pentagon said Thursday that Wagner is no longer “participating in any significant capacity in support of combat operations in Ukraine.” The U.S. assessed that “the majority” of Wagner fighters were still in areas of Russian-occupied Ukraine, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder added (BBC).

The Associated Press: Ukraine repels large Russian missile and drone attack that injures civilians in Kyiv.
The Hill: Biden: China has warned Putin against using nuclear weapons.

As Biden was busy in Finland, Secretary of State Antony Blinken attended a regional summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, where he met with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, the latest in a string of diplomatic meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials as the two countries try to ease tensions. The talks, which took place at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting for foreign ministers, followed Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s recent four-day visit to China and a trip to Beijing last month by Blinken, the first time a U.S secretary of state has flown to China in five years. John Kerry, Biden’s special envoy for climate change, is scheduled to arrive in China Sunday (The New York Times).

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The Hill: China unveiled plans to land astronauts on the moon within seven years.
The Washington Post: Guatemala court suspends anti-corruption party before presidential election.
The Associated Press: A mass grave with at least 87 bodies has been found in Sudan’s volatile Darfur region.

LEADING THE DAY

➤ CONGRESS

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday that Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) holds on hundreds of senior military nominations are a “national security issue.” Tuberville has held firm since March on his block of more than 250 military promotions and nominations in the Senate, saying he is protesting the Pentagon’s policy to reimburse service members who travel across state lines to obtain an abortion. His hold disrupts what is typically a routine process of confirming hundreds of military nominations at once known as unanimous consent. With Tuberville’s hold in place, the Marine Corps has been left without a confirmed leader for the first time in 164 years.

“This is a national security issue. It’s a readiness issue,” Austin said in an interview with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer following the NATO summit in Lithuania. “And, we shouldn’t kid ourselves. I think any member of the Senate Armed Services Committee knows that.” 

Austin and Tuberville spoke on the phone Thursday, and the secretary explained the “impact the holds are having to military readiness and uncertainty in the force,” according to a Pentagon spokesman. Tuberville, meanwhile, reportedly said he was grateful for the “cordial and productive conversation” and looks forward to further talks (The Hill).

When asked if the Pentagon will continue to pay for women to go to other states, if necessary, to get an abortion, Austin said, “That’s our policy. I don’t have an abortion policy, I have an ‘access to non-covered reproductive health care’ policy.”

The Hill: Biden blasted Tuberville’s “ridiculous” hold on Pentagon nominees and promotions.
Forbes: How can just one Senator — like Tuberville — hold up a nomination process? Because of this Senate rule.

House adoption of conservative amendments to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) has thrown the fate of the must-pass package into doubt, sparking widespread opposition from Democrats and putting new burdens on Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to rally enough Republican votes to pass it through the lower chamber. The threat to the $886 billion defense bill is unusual for an annual legislative ritual that sets the budget for the nation’s armed forces. But this year, under pressure from hard-liners in his conference, McCarthy brought a series of controversial conservative amendments to the floor. Five of those measures — pertaining to explosive issues like abortion and transgender rights — were approved on largely partisan votes Thursday evening, including limits to diversity initiatives and prohibitions on gender-affirming care. In a particularly bruising blow to the overall bill’s chances, the GOP approved a rollback of a Pentagon abortion policy.

The initial framework passed last month through the Armed Services Committee on a bipartisan, 58-to-1 vote, but the changes are already prompting immediate vows from Democrats of all stripes to oppose the final bill when it reaches the floor, perhaps as early as Friday (The Hill and The New York Times).

“I wouldn’t doubt if there are a lot — a lot — of Democratic nos,” said Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), a centrist member of the Problem Solvers Caucus. “Despite our belief in providing for the national defense, this is really a travesty.”

Progressive groups are arguing that a handshake agreement on spending struck by Republicans and Democrats while raising the debt ceiling is null and void, The Hill’s Tobias Burns reports. As House Republicans propose funding bills with far steeper cuts than agreed upon, critics argue that Democrats should back out of the deal — which was never committed to paper — and undo a $20 billion clawback in IRS funding. The agency was on track to receive $80 billion in additional funding over the next decade through the Inflation Reduction Act, but Democrats agreed to scrap $20 billion of that funding to help end a standoff over the federal debt limit. The bill also ordered the IRS to draw up plans for a free online tax filing system, which Republicans are trying to roll back.

“The funding and policy riders in this Financial Services and General Government bill put forth by the majority are unacceptable,” top Democratic appropriator Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.) said in prepared remarks at a committee markup Thursday. “Cuts to the Internal Revenue Service would protect tax cheats over honest, hard-working families.”

Meanwhile, a revived constitutional proposal for an Equal Rights Amendment, introduced by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and other Democrats, is back, using a novel legal theory: that the measure has already been ratified and is enforceable as the 28th Amendment to the Constitution. A Democratic effort to resurrect the ERA has already failed once this year; legal experts don’t expect this proposal to pass either (The New York Times). 

“This is a political rather than a legal struggle,” Laurence Tribe, a constitutional scholar and professor emeritus at Harvard Law School, told the Times. “It would succeed only in a different environment than we have. It’s not going to pass. The real question is what political message is being sent. In a political environment like this, you throw at the wall whatever you can.”

A group of progressive senators on Thursday asked the Justice Department for a briefing later this month and federal intervention where possible to ensure access to travel by women seeking abortions outside states that have restrictive abortion laws, including Idaho (The Hill).

The Daily Beast: The House Ethics Committee revives a sexual misconduct probe into Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.).

➤ POLITICS

Republicans are scrambling for a way to revise their political messaging after blaming Biden and Democrats for high inflation and economic uncertainty, reports The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. Federal data this week showed the economy’s inflation picture has eased without a recession, which is expected to mean the Federal Reserve may raise its benchmark interest rate just once more this year. The White House says “Bidenomics” is playing a role. 

On the campaign trail and in a super PAC ad, Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis has attacked the Disney Co. in Florida while touting his war on what he calls “woke.” Disney CEO Bob Iger slammed the governor during a Thursday interview on CNBC, dismissing assertions that his company harms children. “The notion that Disney is in any way sexualizing children, quite frankly, is preposterous and inaccurate,” Iger said. DeSantis is critical of Disney because the company publicly opposed the state’s so-called Don’t Say Gay law, which bans classroom “instruction” and “discussion” about sexual orientation and gender identity.

The Hill’s The Memo by Niall Stanage: GOP primary fight risks deepening party’s abortion troubles. 

2024 roundup: GOP presidential candidate Chris Christie told NewsNation’s “Cuomo” during a Thursday interview that saving Social Security, which is projected to be technically insolvent in 2035, leads his agenda. “Congress and President Biden and President Trump have said they’ll do nothing about it, they won’t touch it. Well, this is the kind of cowardice that makes people cynical about their government. I’m willing to take on the big issues and try to make a difference,” he said. … A critical challenge next year for Democrats will be convincing voters who supported the party during Trump’s presidency to return to the polls, according to findings of a new study (The Washington Post). … A New York appeals court on Thursday ordered the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission to redraw New York’s House map. If upheld, the ruling could allow Democrats to shift as many as six Republican-held seats. The GOP vowed to challenge the decision (The New York Times).  … Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, a presidential candidate, is selling Bush-era Republicanism (The New York Times). … Tucker Carlson and Blaze Media host a forum in Iowa today with six Republican presidential candidates (Trump is not participating; Hutchinson is) (The Hill). … For those tracking candidates’ campaign fundraising in the second quarter, the Federal Election Commission reporting deadline is Saturday. … A confidential DeSantis campaign memo dated July 6 sought to reassure donors and activists amid criticism about a stalling bid for the White House (NBC News). 

Trump world: Special Counsel Jack Smith on Thursday urged the federal judge presiding over the prosecution ofTrump in the classified records case to deny Trump’s request to postpone the criminal trial and schedule it on Dec. 11, saying “there is no basis in law or fact” to delay (Reuters). … In a new personal financial disclosure on Thursday, Trump reported that after he left office, a super PAC associated with him paid former first lady Melania Trump $155,000 in speaking fees in December 2021. Those specifics were not disclosed by the super PAC, now dissolved, as an expenditure in disclosures it made last year (The New York Times).  

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ ADMINISTRATION

The Federal Trade Commission opened an investigation into OpenAI, probing whether the maker of the popular ChatGPT app violates consumer protection laws by putting personal reputations and data at risk (The Washington Post). The agency this week sent the San Francisco company a 20-page demand for records about how it addresses risks related to its AI models. Analysts have called OpenAI’s ChatGPT the fastest-growing consumer app in history, and its early success set off an arms race among Silicon Valley companies to roll out competing chatbots. The company’s chief executive, Sam Altman, has emerged as an influential figure in the debate over AI regulation, testifying on Capitol Hill, dining with lawmakers and meeting with Biden and Vice President Harris.

West Wing: The Secret Service found no DNA or fingerprints on a bag of cocaine found near a West Executive Ave. entrance to the White House on July 2 when the president was not in residence and tour visitors used storage cubbies in the work area. Without leads, the agency plans to end its investigation today (The Hill). The Secret Service delivered a classified briefing Thursday to members and staff of the House Oversight Committee, and Republican outcry is likely to keep the issue alive (ABC News and CNN). “How can, in the White House, 24/7 security, they find cocaine, but now they just closed the investigation?” McCarthy said Thursday. “Where in the country do you get treated like this? Only with the Bidens, with the Bidens in charge. There is no equal justice” (The Washington Examiner).

Space: NASA‘s James Webb Space Telescope has proven its worth with spectacular images of the cosmos. It has surpassed NASA’s expectations and has altered mankind’s understanding of the universe. Here’s a look at some of the biggest discoveries in the telescope’s first year in operation (The Hill). Flickr images are HERE.

OPINION

Europe is pledging Ukraine weapons it can’t make, by Max Hastings, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion.
How a right-wing judge got social media and free speech dead wrong, by Paul M. Barrett, opinion contributor, The Hill.

WHERE AND WHEN

The House will meet at 10 a.m. 

The Senate will convene at 9:30 a.m. for a pro forma session.

The president receives the President’s Daily Brief at the White House at 10 a.m. Biden and first lady Jill Biden will depart for Camp David at 1:30 p.m.

Vice President Harris will speak at Coppin State University in Baltimore at 3:15 p.m. to highlight provisions of the Inflation Reduction law.

 The secretary of State is in Jakarta, Indonesia, through Saturday to participate in the annual U.S.-ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting, East Asia Summit foreign ministers’ meeting and the ASEAN regional forum. 

The Treasury secretary is traveling to Gandhinagar, India, to participate in the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors’ meetings. 

ELSEWHERE

ON STRIKE

For the first time in the entertainment world since 1960, dual strikes that began at midnight by thousands of actors and artists mean Hollywood is stopped in its tracks. The clash pits famous and not-so-famous members of the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) against old-line studios such as Disney, Universal, Sony and Paramount, as well as tech juggernauts such as Netflix, Amazon and Apple (The New York Times).

 SAG-AFTRA, which represents more than 160,000 media artists and entertainers, voted overwhelmingly on Thursday to strike after months of contract negotiations seeking increased base compensation for performers, which union leaders say has declined as streaming-first studios pivot away from paying out residuals to talent. They also took aim at the risks to workers tied to the use of artificial intelligence (such as tools that can make digital replacements for recognizable stars) and the costs of “self-taped auditions” — videos once paid for by casting departments and production offices (NBC News).

What will audiences notice? The Wall Street Journal reports that a prolonged strike could mean that ahead of the fall TV season, broadcast and cable networks won’t have fresh scripted episodes ready and that Hollywood’s pipeline of shows and movies will thin. Netflix and other streaming platforms produce programming well in advance of planned release dates, as do movie studios, so they may not feel the effect of a labor stoppage until late 2024 at the earliest.

Union negotiators who had been optimistic in June became less so in recent days, saying the studios did not “have any intention of bargaining toward an agreement” (Variety).

“What happens here is important because what’s happening to us is happening across all fields of labor,” SAG-AFTRA President Fran Drescher said Thursday. “When employers make Wall Street and greed their priority and they forget about the essential contributors that make the machine run” (The Los Angeles Times).

The strike doesn’t impact SAG-AFTRA members who work in the news business, such as certain broadcast hosts and announcers.

The walkouts mean scripted film and TV production by the companies represented by the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers come to a halt. “This is the Union’s choice, not ours,” the AMPTP said (NPR). 

“Rather than continuing to negotiate, SAG-AFTRA has put us on a course that will deepen the financial hardship for thousands who depend on the industry for their livelihoods,” Drescher said. “[T]hey plead poverty, that they’re losing money left and right, when giving hundreds of millions of dollars to their CEOs. It is disgusting. Shame on them. They stand on the wrong side of history at this very moment. We stand in solidarity, in unprecedented unity.”

Disney CEO Bob Iger told CNBC during an interview that SAG-AFTRA’s demands are “just not realistic” and “very disturbing to me” (Variety). Iger just extended his Disney contract by two years and is on a mission to cut $5.5 billion in costs, including $3 billion from content as Disney struggles with a shifting industry landscape (Investor’s Business Daily). He said the company may sell its traditional TV assets, from ABC to ESPN.

An ongoing strike by members of the Writers Guild of America, representing film and television writers, halted beginning in May most television production, delayed the filming of some high-profile movies and sent late-night talk shows into reruns. 

Deadline: California Senate Democratic candidates Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter announced their support for union members Thursday ahead of the strike. Schiff and Porter, each running to succeed Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), also backed the Writers Guild members in their walkout in May, as did another Democratic rival for the seat, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.).
The Hollywood Reporter: In May, the Writers Guild posted a studio-by-studio forecast of how much a deal with members would cost companies annually.

HEALTH & WELLBEING

Birth control pills approved by the Food and Drug Administration and made by a Dublin company will be available in the U.S. without a prescription for the first time as over-the-counter medication, probably by early next year. The Perrigo Company, manufacturer of the daily oral contraception known as Opill, did not say how much the pill will cost, which is central to its use and accessibility (The New York Times). 

The Associated Press: Families and doctors sue Texas over its new ban on transgender care for minors.
The Hill: $130-per-shot COVID vaccines? Manufacturers warned against price gouging.
The Washington Post: Does aspartame pose a health risk, as the World Health Organization suggests? Check the science.

THE CLOSER

And finally … 👏👏👏 Kudos to this week’s Morning Report Quiz winners! Readers turned in smart guesses and expert Googling about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Here’s who went 4/4: Patrick Kavanagh, Mary Anne McEnery, David Glick, Bill Grieshober, David Hatcher, Harry Strulovici, Lynn Gardner, Timothy Bolden, Jeremy Serwer, Kathleen Kovalik, Peter Spofera, Paul Harris, William Moore, R. Milton Howell, Stewart Baker, David Anderson, Jaina Mehta, Alex Wang, John van Santen, Steve James, Terry Pflaumer, James Morris, Phil Kirstein, Jeanne Kosch, Robert Bradley, David Letostak, Larry Hart, Candi Cee, “KMFlorida,” Steven Abern, David Johnson, Stan Wasser, Ki Harvey, Joan Domingues, Pam Manges, Tim Burrack, Lou Tisler and Jack Barshay.

They knew NATO was founded in 1949.

Iceland is the security alliance member without a military. 

NATO’s Article 5 specifies an armed attack on one member nation is considered an attack on all. NATO invoked Article 5 once, in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States.

Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership in 2022.

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch. Follow us on Twitter (@asimendinger & @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!

Tags Ivan Popov Joe Biden Vladimir Putin