Morning Report — A rough launch for Senate border deal

If Congress struggles with basic business, such as a budget, getting some of the most politically fraught legislative aims past the House and Senate in an election year, to put it charitably, is a reach. 

At least that’s the going bet behind a $118.3 billion Senate package that includes $60 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel, $10 billion in humanitarian aid, nearly $5 billion for Asia-Pacific partners including Taiwan, and $20 billion in new border security funding. 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) says he needs at least 60 senators to vote “aye” on Wednesday just to move the package to the floor. 

Consider the headwinds: President Biden says he would sign into law some of the toughest restrictions on migrants and asylum-seekers proposed in a century. Former President Trump, whose campaign sees immigration as one of the president’s top vulnerabilities with voters, warned his party to oppose it.  

“Don’t be STUPID!” Trump wrote. 

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) vows that if by some chance the Senate passes the border-plus-aid measure, he won’t bring it to a vote (The Hill). 

The Speaker, who opposes additional unconditional aid to Ukraine (as does his right flank), now says the House this week will vote on a new $17.6 billion stand-alone bill to help Israel. Biden and the White House, opting to label the measure “another cynical political maneuver,” issued a veto threat Monday.  

In an effort to win Senate support, the measure would include $3.3 billion to bolster U.S. military operations in the conflict-riddled Middle East and abandons earlier House GOP legislative enthusiasm for simultaneously cutting IRS funding. 

In the Senate, border security provisions divide Democrats (Sens. Alex Padilla of California and Bob Menendez of New Jersey are vocal opponents, for example). On the other side of the aisle, some Senate Republicans are similarly critical of specifics and have openly challenged Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) because he encouraged the bipartisan legislative effort that consumed months (and he also bucks Trump). 

Text of the border proposal is HERE. 

The Hill’s Niall Stanage in The Memo reports how the GOP and the national debate on border security and immigration shifted in recent years, noting Trump’s role and the record-high border crossings.  

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J’ACCUSE: Legal experts counter GOP claims that Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas breached statutes while doing his job, a GOP rationale behind a House resolution to impeach the Cabinet member for what analysts in both parties maintain are policy differences, The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch reports. A GOP-supported impeachment resolution cleared the Rules Committee Monday night and could be on the House floor today. 

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LEADING THE DAY 

POLITICS 

One of the odder 2024 presidential contests happens in Nevada this week. The state’s primary election is today, but the Nevada Republican Party will hold its caucus on Thursday.  

Why? Short answer: In 2021, then-Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) signed a slew of bills into law creating all-mail elections, expanding voter registration and moving the state-run presidential contest to a primary. Republicans in the state pushed back. A lawsuit eventually led a court to determine that the party would be unlikely to stop the state from moving to a primary system. But it also ruled that the party couldn’t be bound by the state’s laws when it comes to how it picks delegates (NPR). 

All of this to say: Today’s primary contest will feature former U.N. ambassador Haley on the GOP ballot, but her participation disqualifies her from appearing on the Thursday caucus ballot alongside Trump — a setup that all but ensures Trump wins the state’s share of delegates (The Washington Examiner).  

BIDEN SPENT MONDAY IN LAS VEGAS, where he congratulated hospitality workers for reaching a tentative agreement with several hotel-casinos and calling off a strike deadline for another, telling members of the local culinary union, “When you do well, everybody does better” (The Hill). 

“I came to say thank you — not just thank you for the support you’ve given me the last time out and this time, but thank you for having the faith in the union,” Biden told Local 226 Culinary hospitality workers who gathered at Vdara Hotel in Las Vegas. “Thank you for continuing to push it because this really matters. It matters, it matters, it matters.” 

Biden is running against a field of mainly unknown perennial candidates in the primary, meaning the Democratic contest isn’t likely to come down to the wire. But the state is proving valuable to the Biden campaign as a testing ground for its volunteer operations and key messaging — a trial run ahead of the general election in November (The Nevada Independent). 

HALEY IS FUELING QUESTIONS about what her ultimate goal is as she barrels toward a Feb. 24 South Carolina showdown with Trump despite the odds being increasingly stacked against her. The Hill’s Julia Manchester and Sarakshi Rai report the former South Carolina governor has shown no signs of wanting to drop out, even as it seems increasingly likely Trump will win the nomination. But behind the scenes, many Republicans don’t expect her to last past Super Tuesday, leading them to speculate about what her actual motivation is. Some suggest she could be setting herself up in case Trump can’t run, while others believe this is really about positioning herself for a potential White House run in 2028. 

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ZOOM IN 

INTERNATIONAL 

Middle East: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Cairo today while meeting with Egyptian mediators about a potential agreement with Hamas to pause fighting in exchange for hostages still in Gaza. Egypt also is concerned that Israel’s evacuation orders in Gaza now cover two-thirds of the territory. More than half of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million people is now crammed into the town of Rafah on the border with Egypt and surrounding areas, United Nations humanitarian monitors said Tuesday. 

Blinken was in Saudi Arabia on Monday as the region braced for continued attacks between U.S. forces and Iranian-backed proxy groups, carrying a complicated message: Even as the United States targets militias in the region, it is ultimately seeking a de-escalation against the Iranian-aligned groups. The State Department said the launching of dozens of U.S. strikes on militia targets starting Friday was a proportional response to the Jan. 28 killing of three U.S. service members in Jordan. And even as the White House has vowed further retaliation in the coming days, a department official said, “We do not see it as an escalation.” 

Yemen’s Houthis have said they will continue to target commercial vessels and fire on U.S. assets until a cease-fire is agreed upon in Gaza (The Washington Post).  

Palestinians hoped Blinken’s visit to Riyadh could deliver a truce before a threatened Israeli assault on Rafah. Washington last week brokered an offer, with Israel’s input, for the war’s first extended cease-fire (Reuters). But initial optimism seems to be waning, as Hamas’s leadership is not backing down from its demand for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline comments indicate that he has no intention of agreeing (Haaretz). 

China: A U.S.-China economic working group created last year holds its first meeting in Beijing this week, The New York Times reports. On the agenda: China’s nonmarket economic practices, industrial overcapacity, sovereign debt burdens, investment screening programs, macroeconomic outlooks and climate change. China’s growth is projected to ebb this year to below 5 percent, while the U.S. economy has demonstrated its resilience as the year begins. The working group discussions could lead to a China visit this year by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.   

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ELSEWHERE 

STATE WATCH 

California has been hit with an atmospheric river that has dumped heavy rain and flooding across a vast swath of the state. The death toll from the storm rose to three in Northern California, all killed by toppling trees, and more than 16 million people are under a rare high risk of excessive rainfall, with downtown Los Angeles receiving 75 percent of its annual rainfall in only the second month of 2024. 

The Pacific Coast Highway, a major north-south thoroughfare, closed in two locations on Monday, as thousands of flights in or out of the state were canceled or delayed. More than 200,000 California power customers are facing outages. Scientists are pointing to two factors that are upping the destructive power of the storm: climate change and El Niño. Biden promised aid to Los Angeles during an evening news conference, after Mayor Karen Bass (D) stepped away to take a call from him, and then held her phone up so that Biden could address residents by speakerphone (CNN and The New York Times).  

“We’ll get any help on the way as soon as you guys request it,” the president said. “So just let me know. That’s why I’m calling.” 

Florida abortion rights groups are heading to the state Supreme Court this week as part of an effort to put abortion protections on the ballot in November. The Hill’s Nathaniel Weixel reports the court will hear arguments tomorrow about whether the ballot measure language meets state rules. Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) will argue that the ballot language is unclear and misleading, and that the court should disqualify the measure. Abortion rights advocates are confident, and legal experts say the ballot question topic shouldn’t matter, but the court is very conservative and openly hostile to abortion.  

In New York City, Republicans on Monday called for an end to the city’s sanctuary designation after a weekend attack on police in Times Square, allegedly committed by migrants. Mayor Eric Adams (D) defended the majority of people who lawfully seek asylum, while New York Police Commissioner Edward Caban criticized what he called “a wave of migrant crime” in the city.  

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TRUMP WORLD 

LEGAL OBSERVERS ARE GROWING WORRIED that Trump’s criminal prosecution related to a campaign to overturn the 2020 election could be delayed past November, which could help bolster his efforts to return to the Oval Office. Delay tactics are a well-worn strategy by the former president and his legal teams to bend circumstances in his favor. And now, with an appeals court weighing whether he’s protected from prosecution by presidential immunity, Trump’s goal of facing voters before he faces a federal jury is growing likelier, with the judge issuing a full stop on trial proceedings in Washington until that determination is made (The Hill). 

The judge presiding over Trump’s Washington, D.C., criminal case acknowledged Monday that the former president’s trial could extend deep into 2024, though significant uncertainty continues to cloud the timeline. U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan told attorneys in another criminal case that she intended to be out of the country in early August — unless Trump’s trial is underway (Politico). 

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THE CLOSER 

And finally … 🦁🐜 Lions and zebras and… ants? Oh my! Lions have long stood atop the animal food chain, but now a new enemy has forced the big cats in Kenya to change their hunting strategies and diets.  

Researchers say that an invasive species of ant, which arrived in Kenya in the early 2000s, has caused an “ecological chain reaction.” Big-headed ants kill native acacia ants, which protect trees from elephants and other herbivores in Kenya by swarming into the animals’ nostrils and biting when they try to eat the trees. But as acacia ants have dwindled, elephants have knocked down and eaten more whistling thorn trees. Fewer trees means lions have lost the cover they rely on to stealthily attack their primary prey — zebras (The Washington Post). 

Researchers were surprised to find that the ants’ impact did not cause the lion population to decline. Instead, the big cats switched dining preference and strategy — ganging up in larger groups to go after buffalo (CBS News). 

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Stay Engaged 

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