Morning Report — Shutdown threat simmers; Biden, Trump win in Michigan

We learned at least three key things on Tuesday.

First, the vast majority of Republicans in Congress, possibly including Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), appear persuaded that a lapse in government funding next weekend would be political hari-kari. A temporary remedy before Friday to avert a partial shutdown — an event President Biden would, without a doubt, exploit during next week’s scheduled State of the Union speech  — appears increasingly likely. More on that in a minute.

Second, Tuesday’s Michigan primary contest advanced former President Trump’s sprint toward his party’s nomination in a key Midwestern battleground state that he narrowly captured in 2016 and lost to Biden in 2020’s general election. Trump trounced Nikki Haley by more than 40 points as of this writing, his sixth consecutive primary triumph. 

The president, who easily won the Michigan Democratic primary Tuesday with more than 80 percent of the vote with 95 percent of ballots tallied, nonetheless is confronting his own and his party’s political vulnerabilities, The Hill’s Niall Stanage explains. For example, more than 13 percent of Democratic primary participants in the state sent messages of disapproval to Biden by voting “uncommitted.” In Michigan’s Wayne County, home of Dearborn, which has the highest percentage of Arab Americans, “uncommitted” was 17 percent of the Democratic Party primary result, reflecting anti war views of U.S. policy in Gaza. In Dearborn itself, “uncommitted” beat Biden decisively.

And finally, it’s clear why Biden and Trump each plan to appear at a Texas border location on Thursday. As polling and exit interviews among primary voters emphasize, the immigration crisis is Americans’ top concern and hurts the president. Continued migrant crossings at the border and Biden’s reluctance to publicly champion a Gaza cease-fire while standing with Israel have also cost him, including in Michigan. 

The president is now publicly rooting for a deal he’d like to see reached next week between Israel and Hamas that would pause the war, swap more hostages and protect Palestinians who are now impoverished nomads on a postage-stamp sized piece of land. There was no indication this morning that a cease-fire in Gaza is imminent.

Biden’s efforts and those in Congress to secure additional billions of dollars in funding for Ukraine — part of an “intense” back-and-forth discussion at the Oval Office on Tuesday — appear to be on ice for now. House conservatives balk at rising U.S. spending, want restrictions at the U.S. southern border first and foremost, and say they’re worried about Ukrainian corruption and want “accountability.”

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports there was no bipartisan breakthrough in the shutdown drama among Biden, Vice President Harris, Johnson, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). 

Congress would need to quickly punt by passing another short-term continuing resolution (CR), but there’s no agreement on how long it should last and how many departments and agencies it should cover. House Republicans insisted weeks ago on two temporary funding deadlines (March 1 and March 8). That strategy deferred but did not solve federal funding differences. The fiscal year ends Sept. 30, but by this time in the calendar, Congress in a more perfect world would be discussing next year’s fiscal framework.

The Hill: Here are four scenarios for the funding fight this week. 

“If we need to pass a very short-term CR along with whatever bills we can finish this week, Democrats are ready to make it happen so we can prevent a completely unnecessary shutdown,” Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Patty Murray (D-Wash.) told colleagues Tuesday.

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LEADING THE DAY

MORE IN CONGRESS 

PRESSURE IS MOUNTING on McConnell to endorse Trump, a move that would have been unthinkable a year ago. Thirty-two Senate Republicans, representing almost two-thirds of the conference, have officially endorsed Trump. That includes four of the five members of McConnell’s leadership team, increasing the pressure on the longtime GOP leader to do the same. 

McConnell and the former president have not spoken since 2020, and the Kentucky Republican has been a critic of Trump’s. Still, The Hill’s Al Weaver reports Republican lawmakers believe McConnell has one big reason to potentially get behind the former president’s campaign: to help GOP Senate candidates as he seeks to retake the majority. 

“No, I don’t think it would be easy,” one Senate Republican told The Hill about McConnell potentially taking the step toward an endorsement. “But he’s a pragmatist, and at the end, he’d rather have a Republican or Republican policies. I don’t know if his political mind can overcome the personal [issues] enough. If anybody can do it, he can probably do it.”

HUNTER IN THE SPOTLIGHT: In a closed-door meeting, House Oversight and Judiciary committee members today will hear Hunter Biden’s testimony about his actions and business dealings between 2013 and 2018. Republicans hope to elicit revelations that could justify moving forward with their impeachment inquiry into the president. The inquiry’s credibility suffered a blow with the recent indictment of an ex-FBI source who is accused of falsifying allegations of bribery involving both Bidens.

Republicans on the Oversight and Judiciary committees have placed Hunter Biden at the center of their impeachment inquiry, alleging that he engineered an elaborate web of lucrative business ventures overseas that leaned heavily on his father’s international influence — and that the president himself has benefited financially from those shady arrangements. No evidence has been presented and conservatives’ charges are denied by the president, his relatives and their business associates (The Hill).

The Hill: A trio of House GOP chairs fired off a subpoena to Attorney General Merrick Garland on Tuesday requesting documents related to special counsel Robert Hur’s investigation into Biden’s mishandling of classified documents.

Also on the impeachment docket: The Senate’s consideration of the House’s articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. McConnell and Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) called Tuesday for the upper chamber to conduct a full trial of Mayorkas, which Senate conservatives had demanded. 

The decision of how to proceed lies with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who declined to say Tuesday how he will handle the impeachment charges (The Hill).

“Look, as I’ve said, the impeachment of Mayorkas is absurd. There’s not one drop of evidence that leads to any kind of charge of impeachment, and we’re going to handle it in the best way possible,” Schumer said.

POLITICS

IVF PROTECTIONS: Led by Sens. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Senate Democrats announced Tuesday they will try to force a vote on their legislation to protect access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment in response to the Alabama Supreme Court ruling that frozen embryos are considered people. The move sets up a showdown with Republicans. Duckworth said she will ask for unanimous consent today for the Senate to pass a measure, which would establish a federal right to IVF and other fertility treatments that are at risk in the post-Roe era (The Hill).  

“I warned that red states would come for IVF, and now they have. But they aren’t going to just stop in Alabama,” Duckworth said at a Tuesday press conference. “Mark my words: If we don’t act now, it will only get worse.” 

Republicans, meanwhile, are lining up in support of IVF, even as their statements raise more questions than they answer. At the same time, dozens of congressional Republicans support so-called personhood legislation with no carve-out for embryos in clinics. If enacted, it would upend how the procedure is practiced in the United States (Politico).

The New York Times: In the wake of Alabama’s decision, doctors and patients worry they could be vulnerable to prosecution.

THE REAGAN-ERA GOP IS GONE. The Republican Party’s shift from Russia hawk to something softer is straining the GOP at a crucial juncture, highlighting the ascendancy of Trump’s “America First” approach and exasperating old-guard conservatives who long for a return to the assertive foreign policy championed by the party through generations prior. The Hill’s Mike Lillis reports it’s created nothing short of an identity crisis for those Republicans who still identify with the party of former President Reagan, a Cold War president long lionized within the GOP ranks for his aggressive confrontations with the Soviet Union.

“The fact that the Republican Party now has elements that are openly pro-Putin, that they have abandoned faith in American leadership in the world, it’s disgusting,” said John Conway, head of strategy for Republicans for Ukraine, a group pressing GOP lawmakers on Capitol Hill to provide more military aid to Kyiv. “It’s something Ronald Reagan couldn’t possibly ever believe would happen to his party. He would be disgusted by today’s GOP.”

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WHERE AND WHEN

The House is back after its Presidents Day recess and convenes at noon.

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. 

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 8 a.m.

The vice president will travel to New York City to appear at 1:35 p.m. on the daytime TV show “Sherri” with host Sherri Shepherd, broadcast before a live audience on Fox Television Stations. Harris will return to Washington this evening.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Washington and at 9:15 a.m. will join a trilateral meeting that includes counterparts from Mexico and Guatemala. He will meet at 4 p.m. with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul at the State Department.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in São Paulo, Brazil, for the annual gathering of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors. The secretary this morning will participate in a separate Group of Seven finance ministers and central bank governors session, followed by the first session of the G20 meeting. Yellen will participate in a bilateral meeting with Canadian Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland, followed by an afternoon bilateral meeting with Italy’s Giancarlo Giorgetti, the minister of economy and finance. She will meet an hour later with German Minister of Finance Christian Lindner. Following the next G20 session in the afternoon, Yellen will hold a bilateral meeting with French Minister of Finance Bruno Le Maire. In the evening, the secretary will meet with  Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek and Turkey’s Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan.

Economic indicator: The Bureau of Economic Analysis at 8:30 a.m. will release its second estimate of the 2023 gross domestic product. 

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 2:30 p.m.

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ZOOM IN

INTERNATIONAL

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met Tuesday where they discussed a potential peace plan. The crown prince has sought to position himself as a potential mediator to end the war between Ukraine and Russia — even as Saudi Arabia remains closely aligned with Russia on energy policies through the OPEC+ group of countries. The day before, the prince hosted Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of Russia’s lower house of Parliament, and a host of other Russian officials.

Saudi Arabia hosted an international summit on the peace formula in August 2023. The country has also played an important role in negotiating prisoner exchanges with Russia, allowing Ukraine to achieve a major exchange involving nearly 300 people in September 2022 (Yahoo News and Los Angeles Times). The two leaders spoke about the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland that hopes to establish high-level talks for a potential peace process (Reuters).

Treasury’s Yellen, attending a Group of 20 finance ministers meeting in Brazil, urged allies to “unlock” an estimated $300 billion in Russian Central Bank assets, which countries have frozen, and send the assets to Ukraine (ABC News).

Israel and Hamas on Tuesday played down chances of an imminent breakthrough in talks for a cease-fire in Gaza, after Biden said Monday Israel has agreed to pause its offensive during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan if a deal is reached to release some hostages. The president said he had been briefed on the status of talks by his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, but said his comments reflected his optimism for a deal, not that all the remaining hurdles had been overcome.

Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza, which allows in only a trickle of food and other aid, has sparked alarm that a famine could be imminent, according to the United Nations (Politico).

The New York Times analysis: The divergent goals of Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are playing out as negotiators try to reach a hostage deal.

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ELSEWHERE

BUSINESS & LABOR

CORPORATE GIANTS facing labor rights violations are challenging the constitutionality of the agency in charge of protecting unions and their members. The Hill’s Taylor Giorno and Julia Shapero report SpaceX, Trader Joe’s, Amazon and Starbucks are all facing complaints from the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) over their alleged harassment, intimidation and illegal firings of unionizing employees. The New Deal-era agency, which is at the center of Biden’s mission to be the most “pro-union” president ever, could suffer a serious blow to its power if the companies challenging its legality succeed. 

Mergers & reorganizations: Apple pulled the plug on its 10-year, $10 billion investment in developing electric cars that involved 2,000 employees, who were notified Tuesday. The company will refocus on near-term revenue ambitions for generative artificial intelligence and spatial computing with its Vision Pro goggles (Bloomberg News). … Macy’s announced it will close about 150 stores nationwide in a major reorganization with a new focus on luxury. Last month, the department store chain announced it was laying off about 3.5 percent of its workforce, or roughly 2,350 employees (CNN). … Sony will cut 900 jobs from its PlayStation division, the company announced on Tuesday (The Hill).

GROCERY PRICES REMAIN HIGH. In an effort to keep food prices from rising even more rapidly, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Monday said it sued to halt the Kroger and Albertsons merger, which would represent two of the largest grocery store chains in the United States combining forces. Kroger announced that it intended to acquire Albertsons for $24.6 billion in October 2022.

“This supermarket mega merger comes as American consumers have seen the cost of groceries rise steadily over the past few years,” said Henry Liu, Director of the FTC’s Bureau of Competition. “Kroger’s acquisition of Albertsons would lead to additional grocery price hikes for everyday goods, further exacerbating the financial strain consumers across the country face today.”

AFTER A THREE-MONTH STREAK of sunnier consumer outlooks, Americans’ attitudes toward the economy darkened in February. The Conference Board’s latest consumer survey, released Tuesday, shows its index fell in February to 106.7, down from a reading of 110.9 in January. Americans became less worried about rising food and gas prices, but more concerned about the job market (CNN).

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THE CLOSER

And finally … 🦉 What killed Flaco, New York City’s beloved escapee owl?

If you weren’t following Flaco’s year of freedom in Gotham after going on the lam (with human interference) from the Central Park Zoo, you can catch up (with terrific photos) HERE.

The 13-year-old Eurasian eagle-owl with bright orange eyes and an impressive wingspan managed to adapt to hunting rodents, found shelter amid Manhattan’s high-rise buildings and called out for a mate he never found while dazzling the city’s many birders. His fan club chronicled those sightings, shared photos and rooted for Flaco’s improbable survival.

Experts were quick to caution earlier this month that urban hazards were numerous, and indeed, they were correct. Flaco was found dead Feb. 23and even the most blasé city dwellers and social media denizens mourned. 

The Central Park Zoo reported that 4-pound Flaco had been in good physical shape before he was found near death on a sidewalk close to West 89th Street by a New Yorker who immediately recognized him and rushed the bird to experts. 

Initial results of a necropsy showed that Flaco died of acute traumatic injury. The working theory is that he crashed into a building. Tests to determine whether the owl had been exposed to toxins, such as rat poison, or infectious diseases take longer to complete. 

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